POWER LAWS IN REAL ESTATE PRICES DURING BUBBLE PERIODS

How can we detect real estate bubbles? In this paper, we propose making use of information on the cross-sectional dispersion of real estate prices. During bubble periods, prices tend to go up considerably for some properties, but less so for others, so that price inequality across properties increases. In other words, a key characteristic of real estate bubbles is not the rapid price hike itself but a rise in price dispersion. Given this, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether developments in the dispersion in real estate prices can be used to detect bubbles in property markets as they arise, using data from Japan and the U.S. First, we show that the land price distribution in Tokyo had a power-law tail during the bubble period in the late 1980s, while it was very close to a lognormal before and after the bubble period. Second, in the U.S. data we find that the tail of the house price distribution tends to be heavier in those states which experienced a housing bubble. We also provide evidence suggesting that the power-law tail observed during bubble periods arises due to the lack of price arbitrage across regions.

Power laws in real estate prices during bubble periods

How can we detect real estate bubbles? In this paper, we propose making use of information on the cross-sectional dispersion of real estate prices. During bubble periods, prices tend to go up considerably for some properties, but less so for others, so that price inequality across properties increases. In other words, a key characteristic of real estate bubbles is not the rapid price hike itself but a rise in price dispersion. Given this, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether developments in the dispersion in real estate prices can be used to detect bubbles in property markets as they arise, using data from Japan and the U.S. First, we show that the land price distribution in Tokyo had a power-law tail during the bubble period in the late 1980s, while it was very close to a lognormal before and after the bubble period. Second, in the U.S. data we find that the tail of the house price distribution tends to be heavier in those states which experienced a housing bubble. We also provide evidence suggesting that the power-law tail observed during bubble periods arises due to the lack of price arbitrage across regions.Econophysics, Power law, Bubbles, House prices, Land prices, Price dispersion

A Perspective on Frugality in Growing Economies: Triggering a Virtuous Cycle between Consumption Propensity and Growth

The relationship between Growing economies have recovered from the global financial crisis faster than many developed economies and increased the consumption significantly over the past years. In light of the role of their consumption growth in global sustainability, this paper analyzes the decisive factors leading to a virtuous cycle between consumption propensity and investment in growing economies. An empirical analysis was conducted to identify the contributing factors to such a cycle in 40 countries. They could be divided into three economic groups by the marginal propensity to consume. The results suggest that growing economies suffer from an autarky cycle between consumption and GDP due to insufficient investment elasticity against consumption elasticity while advancing and advanced economies allow GDP growth to induce investment efficiently. A possible trigger for inducement of investment by growth in growing economies can be 'frugality'

Fusing East and West Leads a Way to Global Competitiveness in Emerging Economy: Lessons from China’s Leap in Wind Energy Development

China has demonstrated world leading wind energy development in the last five years which can be attributed to the fusion between its design and manufacturing strength in indigenous wind turbine industry and newly emerging wind energy industry in absorption of global best practices. An empirical analysis of China’s wind energy development trajectory over the last decade focusing on the technology sourcing from foreign firms in support of domestic players for accelerating functionality development through enhanced knowledge identification, absorption, assimilation and acclimatization was attempted. Important lessons learned include (i) importance of supply chain in the technology diffusion, (ii) effective technology acquisition and assimilation through early domestic firm engagement, (iii) effect of relevant domestic firms involvement in technology transfer partnership to induce inter-industry spillovers, and (iv) a framework for an emerging nation to develop new functionalities. Similarity and disparity with similar success of fusion in solar industry (JTMGE 3, 2) were also identified