Risk of Type 2 Diabetes among Osteoarthritis Patients in a Prospective Longitudinal Study

Objectives. Our aim was to determine the risk of diabetes among osteoarthritis (OA) cases in a prospective longitudinal study. Methods. Administrative health records of 577,601 randomly selected individuals from British Columbia, Canada, from 1991 to 2009, were analyzed. OA and diabetes cases were identified by checking physician's visits and hospital records. From 1991 to 1996 we documented 19,143 existing OA cases and selected one non-OA individual matched by age, sex, and year of administrative records. Poisson regression and Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to estimate the effects after adjusting for available sociodemographic and medical factors. Results. At baseline, the mean age of OA cases was 61 years and 60.5% were women. Over 12 years of mean follow-up, the incidence rate (95% CI) of diabetes was 11.2 (10.90-11.50) per 1000 person years. Adjusted RRs (95% CI) for diabetes were 1.27 (1.15-1.41), 1.21 (1.08-1.35), 1.16 (1.04-1.28), and 0.99 (0.86-1.14) for younger women (age 20-64 years), older women (age ≥ 65 years), younger men, and older men, respectively. Conclusion. Younger adults and older women with OA have increased risks of developing diabetes compared to their age-sex matched non-OA counterparts. Further studies are needed to confirm these results and to elucidate the potential mechanisms

Risk of Type 2 Diabetes among Osteoarthritis Patients in a Prospective Longitudinal Study

Objectives. Our aim was to determine the risk of diabetes among osteoarthritis (OA) cases in a prospective longitudinal study. Methods. Administrative health records of 577,601 randomly selected individuals from British Columbia, Canada, from 1991 to 2009, were analyzed. OA and diabetes cases were identified by checking physician’s visits and hospital records. From 1991 to 1996 we documented 19,143 existing OA cases and selected one non-OA individual matched by age, sex, and year of administrative records. Poisson regression and Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to estimate the effects after adjusting for available sociodemographic and medical factors. Results. At baseline, the mean age of OA cases was 61 years and 60.5% were women. Over 12 years of mean follow-up, the incidence rate (95% CI) of diabetes was 11.2 (10.90–11.50) per 1000 person years. Adjusted RRs (95% CI) for diabetes were 1.27 (1.15–1.41), 1.21 (1.08–1.35), 1.16 (1.04–1.28), and 0.99 (0.86–1.14) for younger women (age 20–64 years), older women (age ≥ 65 years), younger men, and older men, respectively. Conclusion. Younger adults and older women with OA have increased risks of developing diabetes compared to their age-sex matched non-OA counterparts. Further studies are needed to confirm these results and to elucidate the potential mechanisms

Validation of Administrative Osteoarthritis Diagnosis Using a Clinical and Radiological Population-Based Cohort

Objectives. The validity of administrative osteoarthritis (OA) diagnosis in British Columbia, Canada, was examined against X-rays, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), self-report, and the American College of Rheumatology criteria. Methods. During 2002–2005, 171 randomly selected subjects with knee pain aged 40–79 years underwent clinical assessment for OA in the knee, hip, and hands. Their administrative health records were linked during 1991–2004, in which OA was defined in two ways: (AOA1) at least one physician’s diagnosis or hospital admission and (AOA2) at least two physician’s diagnoses in two years or one hospital admission. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were compared using four reference standards. Results. The mean age was 59 years and 51% were men. The proportion of OA varied from 56.3 to 89.7% among men and 77.4 to 96.4% among women according to reference standards. Sensitivity and specificity varied from 21 to 57% and 75 to 100%, respectively, and PPVs varied from 82 to 100%. For MRI assessment, the PPV of AOA2 was 100%. Higher sensitivity was observed in AOA1 than AOA2 and the reverse was true for specificity and PPV. Conclusions. The validity of administrative OA in British Columbia varied due to case definitions and reference standards. AOA2 is more suitable for identifying OA cases for research using this Canadian database

Capture-mark-recapture to estimate the number of missed articles for systematic reviews in surgery

Abstract BACKGROUND: Systematic reviews are an important knowledge synthesis tool, but with new literature available each day, reviewers must balance identifying all relevant literature against timely synthesis. METHODS: This study tested capture-mark-recapture (CMR), an ecology-based technique, to estimate the total number of articles in the literature identified in a systematic review of adult trauma care quality indicators. RESULTS: The systematic review included 40 articles identified from online searches and citation references. The CMR model suggested that 3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0 to 6) articles were missed and the database search provided 93% (one-sided 95% CI: R83%) of known articles for inclusion in the systematic review. The search order used for identifying the articles was optimal among the 24 that could have been used. CONCLUSIONS: The CMR technique can be used in systematic reviews in surgery to estimate the closeness to capturing the total body of literature for a specific topic. Ó 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Systematic reviews are increasingly used in surgery to synthesize knowledge so that evidence can inform clinical practice (eg, guideline development). Exhaustive searching in multiple large bibliographic databases is time consuming and resource intensive, but it needs to be efficient so the results are presented before the information becomes outdated. However, this is difficult because the amount of literature that exists on any given topic is unknown. Capture-mark-recapture (CMR) is a technique originating in ecology that has been applied to systematic reviews of randomized controlled trials of interventions in osteoporosis, gastroenterology, and hematology 1-3 to estimate The project was supported by a Synthesis Grant (KRS-91770) from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. Dr. Stelfox is supported by a New Investigator Award from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and a Population Health Investigator Award from Alberta Innovates. Funding sources had no role in the design, conduct, or reporting of this study and we are unaware of any conflicts of interest. None of the authors have financial or professional conflicts of interest that would influence the conduct or reporting of this study. Drs. Stelfox, Foster, and Goldsmith had full access to all of the data in the study and take responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. Presented at the Cochrane Canada Symposium May 9, 2012, Winnipeg, Canada. * Corresponding author. The American Journal of Surgery (2013) 206, 439-440 the number of articles in the literature. The technique has not been evaluated in observational studies or surgical studies. We therefore tested CMR to estimate the total number of articles in the literature identified in a systematic review of adult trauma care quality indicators. We performed a scoping review to identify quality indicators for evaluating trauma care 4 and subsequently systematically reviewed the evidence. 5 Horizon estimates (estimated total population of articles) were calculated for full text review and final inclusion using the 4 step CMR technique: (1) capture an initial sample from a population of interest (eg, catch fish in lake); (2) mark the elements in the sample (eg, tag the fish); (3) release the sample back into the population (eg, release tagged fish back into lake); and (4) resample the population (catch fish from same lake to see how many are tagged). Articles found in our 1st database (MEDLINE) were marked as being retrieved from that search and compared with articles retrieved through subsequent searches (eg, Embase was the 2nd database). Articles identified through bibliography reviews were attributed to the originating electronic database. Poisson regression models were used to calculate fitted estimates of the cell counts (number of articles missed) and estimate the total horizon of articles (SAS v 9.2; SAS, Cary, NC). The results of the horizon estimate are shown in We repeated the process for articles selected for inclusion in the systematic review. The final horizon estimate was 43 (40 to 46) articles, representing a difference of 3 (0 to 6) articles between the projected total literature and the number of articles captured (40 articles). Thus, selection of articles for inclusion in the systematic review represents the capture of 93% (87% to 100%) of the estimated pool of available articles. The search order used for identifying the articles was optimal among the 24 that could have been used. CMR is a technique that can be applied to estimate the total number of relevant articles for a given topic. This study demonstrates that CMR can be successfully used for systematic reviews of observational studies in surgery. Future systematic reviews may consider including horizon estimates as possible stopping rules (eg, search until 80% of articles captured) to identify when a sufficient literature search has been completed. CMR may help improve the completeness and efficiency of systematic reviews

Evaluation of easily measured risk factors in the prediction of osteoporotic fractures

BACKGROUND: Fracture represents the single most important clinical event in patients with osteoporosis, yet remains under-predicted. As few premonitory symptoms for fracture exist, it is of critical importance that physicians effectively and efficiently identify individuals at increased fracture risk. METHODS: Of 3426 postmenopausal women in CANDOO, 40, 158, 99, and 64 women developed a new hip, vertebral, wrist or rib fracture, respectively. Seven easily measured risk factors predictive of fracture in research trials were examined in clinical practice including: age (<65, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80+ years), rising from a chair with arms (yes, no), weight (< 57, ≥ 57kg), maternal history of hip facture (yes, no), prior fracture after age 50 (yes, no), hip T-score (>-1, -1 to >-2.5, ≤-2.5), and current smoking status (yes, no). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted. RESULTS: The inability to rise from a chair without the use of arms (3.58; 95% CI: 1.17, 10.93) was the most significant risk factor for new hip fracture. Notable risk factors for predicting new vertebral fractures were: low body weight (1.57; 95% CI: 1.04, 2.37), current smoking (1.95; 95% CI: 1.20, 3.18) and age between 75–79 years (1.96; 95% CI: 1.10, 3.51). New wrist fractures were significantly identified by low body weight (1.71, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.90) and prior fracture after 50 years (1.96; 95% CI: 1.19, 3.22). Predictors of new rib fractures include a maternal history of a hip facture (2.89; 95% CI: 1.04, 8.08) and a prior fracture after 50 years (2.16; 95% CI: 1.20, 3.87). CONCLUSION: This study has shown that there exists a variety of predictors of future fracture, besides BMD, that can be easily assessed by a physician. The significance of each variable depends on the site of incident fracture. Of greatest interest is that an inability to rise from a chair is perhaps the most readily identifiable significant risk factor for hip fracture and can be easily incorporated into routine clinical practice

The impact of incident vertebral and non-vertebral fractures on health related quality of life in postmenopausal women

BACKGROUND: Little empirical research has examined the multiple consequences of osteoporosis on quality of life. METHODS: Health related quality of life (HRQL) was examined in relationship to incident fractures in 2009 postmenopausal women 50 years and older who were seen in consultation at our tertiary care, university teaching hospital-affiliated office and who were registered in the Canadian Database of Osteoporosis and Osteopenia (CANDOO) patients. Patients were divided into three study groups according to incident fracture status: vertebral fractures, non-vertebral fractures and no fractures. Baseline assessments of anthropometric data, medical history, therapeutic drug use, and prevalent fracture status were obtained from all participants. The disease-targeted mini-Osteoporosis Quality of Life Questionnaire (mini-OQLQ) was used to measure HRQL. RESULTS: Multiple regression analyses revealed that subjects who had experienced an incident vertebral fracture had lower HRQL difference scores as compared with non-fractured participants in total score (-0.86; 95% confidence intervals (CI): -1.30, -0.43) and the symptoms (-0.76; 95% CI: -1.23, -0.30), physical functioning (-1.12; 95% CI: -1.57, -0.67), emotional functioning (-1.06; 95% CI: -1.44, -0.68), activities of daily living (-1.47; 95% CI: -1.97, -0.96), and leisure (-0.92; 95% CI: -1.37, -0.47) domains of the mini-OQLQ. Patients who experienced an incident non-vertebral fracture had lower HRQL difference scores as compared with non-fractured participants in total score (-0.47; 95% CI: -0.70, -0.25), and the symptoms (-0.25; 95% CI: -0.49, -0.01), physical functioning (-0.39; 95% CI: -0.65, -0.14), emotional functioning (-0.97; 95% CI: -1.20, -0.75) and the activities of daily living (-0.47; 95% CI: -0.73, -0.21) domains. CONCLUSION: Quality of life decreased in patients who sustained incident vertebral and non-vertebral fractures