A New Model of Trend Inflation

This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on trend inflation mean that standard econometric methods for estimating linear Gaussian state space models cannot be used and we develop a posterior simulation algorithm for estimating the bounded trend inflation model. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model.

Accounting for the association of family conflict and heavy alcohol use among adolescent girls: the role of depressed mood

Objective: Heavy alcohol use increases dramatically at age 14, and there is emerging cross-sectional evidence that when girls experience family conflict at younger ages (11-13 years) the risk of alcohol use and misuse is high. This study evaluated the role of family conflict and subsequent depressed mood in predicting heavy alcohol use among adolescent girls. Method: This was a three-wave longitudinal study with annual assessments (modal ages 12, 13, and 14 years). The participants (N = 886, 57% female) were from 12 metropolitan schools in Victoria, Australia, and participants completed questionnaires during school class time. The key measures were based on the Communities That Care Youth Survey and included family conflict (Wave 1), depressed mood (Wave 2), and heavy alcohol use (Wave 3). Control variables included school commitment, number of peers who consumed alcohol, whether parents were living together, and ethnic background. Results: With all controls in the model, depressed mood at Wave 2 was predicted by family conflict at Wave 1. The interaction of family conflict with gender was significant, with girls showing a stronger association of family conflict and depressed mood. Depressed mood at Wave 2 predicted heavy alcohol use at Wave 3. Conclusions: Girls may be especially vulnerable to family conflict, and subsequent depressed mood increases the risk of heavy alcohol use. The results support the need for gender-sensitive family-oriented prevention programs delivered in late childhood and early adolescence. (J. Stud. Alcohol Drugs, 74, 396-405, 2013

Bioelectronic DNA detection of human papillomaviruses using eSensor™: a model system for detection of multiple pathogens

BACKGROUND: We used human papillomaviruses (HPV) as a model system to evaluate the utility of a nucleic acid, hybridization-based bioelectronic DNA detection platform (eSensor™) in identifying multiple pathogens. METHODS: Two chips were spotted with capture probes consisting of DNA oligonucleotide sequences specific for HPV types. Electrically conductive signal probes were synthesized to be complementary to a distinct region of the amplified HPV target DNA. A portion of the HPV L1 region that was amplified by using consensus primers served as target DNA. The amplified target was mixed with a cocktail of signal probes and added to a cartridge containing a DNA chip to allow for hybridization with complementary capture probes. RESULTS: Two bioelectric chips were designed and successfully detected 86% of the HPV types contained in clinical samples. CONCLUSIONS: This model system demonstrates the potential of the eSensor platform for rapid and integrated detection of multiple pathogens

Do Clawback Adoptions Influence Capital Investments?

We present evidence that clawback provision adoptions influence capital investment mix via managerial compensation incentives. Specifically, we find for a propensity-matched sample of 931 voluntary clawback adoptions that capital investments shift away from R&D and toward capital expenditures, and for firms with enabling liquidity toward acquisitions, consistent with clawback effects on earnings-linked compensation. Corroborating evidence confirms that these effects are positively related to performance-based pay, growth opportunities, and invariant to risk-toleration incentives, with firms adopting clawbacks also exhibiting capital over-investment. This evidence is timely given a pending SEC rule that would mandate clawbacks for all firms listing on US exchanges.postprin

Human Cytomegalovirus Stimulates the Synthesis of Select Akt-Dependent Antiapoptotic Proteins during Viral Entry To Promote Survival of Infected Monocytes

ABSTRACT Primary peripheral blood monocytes are responsible for the hematogenous dissemination of human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) following a primary infection. To facilitate viral spread, we have previously shown HCMV to extend the short 48-h life span of monocytes. Mechanistically, HCMV upregulated two specific cellular antiapoptotic proteins, myeloid leukemia sequence 1 (Mcl-1) and heat shock protein 27 (HSP27), to block the two proteolytic cleavages necessary for the formation of fully active caspase 3 and the subsequent initiation of apoptosis. We now show that HCMV more robustly upregulated Mcl-1 than normal myeloid growth factors and that Mcl-1 was the only myeloid survival factor to rapidly induce HSP27 prior to the 48-h cell fate checkpoint. We determined that HCMV glycoproteins gB and gH signal through the cellular epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and αvβ3 integrin, respectively, during viral entry in order to drive the increase of Mcl-1 and HSP27 in an Akt-dependent manner. Although Akt is known to regulate protein stability and transcription, we found that gB- and gH-initiated signaling preferentially and cooperatively stimulated the synthesis of Mcl-1 and HSP27 through mTOR-mediated translation. Overall, these data suggest that the unique signaling network generated during the viral entry process stimulates the upregulation of select antiapoptotic proteins allowing for the differentiation of short-lived monocytes into long-lived macrophages, a key step in the viral dissemination strategy. IMPORTANCE Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) infection is endemic within the human population. Although primary infection is generally asymptomatic in immunocompetent individuals, HCMV is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in the immunocompromised. The multiorgan inflammatory diseases associated with symptomatic HCMV infection are a direct consequence of the monocyte-mediated systemic spread of the virus. In order for peripheral blood monocytes to facilitate viral dissemination, HCMV subverts the short 48-h life span of monocytes by inducing the expression of cellular antiapoptotic proteins Mcl-1 and HSP27. Here, we demonstrate that the rapid and simultaneous upregulation of Mcl-1 and HSP27 is a distinctive feature of HCMV-induced monocyte survival. Moreover, we decipher the signaling pathways activated during viral entry needed for the robust synthesis of Mcl-1 and HSP27. Identifying the virus-specific mechanisms used to upregulate select cellular factors required for the survival of HCMV-infected monocytes is important to the development of new classes of anti-HCMV drugs

The relationship between psychological distress and adolescent polydrug use

Polydrug use is relatively common among adolescents. Psychological distress is associated with the use of specific drugs, and may be uniquely associated with polydrug use. The purpose of this study was to test the association of psychological distress with polydrug use using a large adolescent sample. The sample consisted of 10,273 students aged 12-17 years from the State of Victoria, Australia. Participants completed frequency measures of tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, inhalant, and other drug use in the past 30 days, and psychological distress. Control variables included age, gender, family socioeconomic status, school suspensions, academic failure, cultural background, and peer drug use. Drug-use classes were derived using latent-class analysis, then the association of psychological distress and controls with drug-use classes was modeled using multinomial ordinal regression. There were 3 distinct classes of drug use: no drug use (47.7%), mainly alcohol use (44.1%), and polydrug use (8.2%). Independent of all controls, psychological distress was higher in polydrug users and alcohol users, relative to nondrug users, and polydrug users reported more psychological distress than alcohol users. Psychological distress was most characteristic of polydrug users, and targeted prevention outcomes may be enhanced by a collateral focus on polydrug use and depression and/or anxiety