Importance of resolution and model configuration when downscaling extreme precipitation

Dynamical downscaling is frequently used to investigate the dynamical variables of extra-tropical cyclones, for example, precipitation, using very high-resolution models nested within coarser resolution models to understand the processes that lead to intense precipitation. It is also used in climate change studies, using long timeseries to investigate trends in precipitation, or to look at the small-scale dynamical processes for specific case studies. This study investigates some of the problems associated with dynamical downscaling and looks at the optimum configuration to obtain the distribution and intensity of a precipitation field to match observations. This study uses the Met Office Unified Model run in limited area mode with grid spacings of 12, 4 and 1.5 km, driven by boundary conditions provided by the ECMWF Operational Analysis to produce high-resolution simulations for the Summer of 2007 UK flooding events. The numerical weather prediction model is initiated at varying times before the peak precipitation is observed to test the importance of the initialisation and boundary conditions, and how long the simulation can be run for. The results are compared to raingauge data as verification and show that the model intensities are most similar to observations when the model is initialised 12 hours before the peak precipitation is observed. It was also shown that using non-gridded datasets makes verification more difficult, with the density of observations also affecting the intensities observed. It is concluded that the simulations are able to produce realistic precipitation intensities when driven by the coarser resolution data

Atmospheric rivers do not explain UK summer extreme rainfall

Extreme rainfall events continue to be one of the largest natural hazards in the UK. In winter, heavy precipitation and floods have been linked with intense moisture transport events associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), yet no large-scale atmospheric precursors have been linked to summer flooding in the UK. This study investigates the link between ARs and extreme rainfall from two perspectives: 1) Given an extreme rainfall event, is there an associated AR? 2) Given an AR, is there an associated extreme rainfall event? We identify extreme rainfall events using the UK Met Office daily rain-gauge dataset and link these to ARs using two different horizontal resolution atmospheric datasets (ERA-Interim and 20th Century Re-analysis). The results show that less than 35% of winter ARs and less than 15% of summer ARs are associated with an extreme rainfall event. Consistent with previous studies, at least 50% of extreme winter rainfall events are associated with an AR. However, less than 20% of the identified summer extreme rainfall events are associated with an AR. The dependence of the water vapor transport intensity threshold used to define an AR on the years included in the study, and on the length of the season, is also examined. Including a longer period (1900-2012) compared to previous studies (1979-2005) reduces the water vapor transport intensity threshold used to define an AR

Atmospheric precursors for intense summer rainfall over the UK

Intense sub‐daily summer rainfall is linked to flooding impacts in the UK. Characterizing the atmospheric conditions prior to the rainfall event can improve understanding of the large‐scale mechanisms involved. The most intense sub‐daily rainfall intensity data generated from rain gauge records across the UK over the period 1979‐2014 are combined with fields from the ERA Interim reanalysis to characterize atmospheric conditions prior to heavy rainfall events. The 200 most intense 3‐hourly events for six UK regions are associated with negative anomalies in sea level pressure (< –2 hPa) and 200hPa geopotential height (<–60m) to the west or south west of the UK 1 day earlier, with above average moisture, evaporation and dewpoint temperature over north west Europe. Atmospheric precursors are more intense but less coherent between regions for composites formed of the 25 heaviest rainfall events but all display substantial moisture transport from the south or south east prior to their occurrence. Composites for the heaviest events are characterised by a tripole geopotential anomaly pattern across the north Atlantic. Above average geopotential height and dewpoint temperature over Newfoundland and below average geopotential height but elevated evaporation in the north Atlantic are found to be weakly associated with an increased chance of the most intense sub‐daily rainfall events 5 to 9 days later

Understanding Paramagnetic Spin Correlations in the Spin-Liquid Pyrochlore Tb2Ti2O7

Recent elastic and inelastic neutron scattering studies of the highly frustrated pyrochlore antiferromagnet Tb2Ti2O7 have shown some very intriguing features that cannot be modeled by the local classical Ising model, naively expected to describe this system at low temperatures. Using the random phase approximation to take into account fluctuations between the ground state doublet and the first excited doublet, we successfully describe the elastic neutron scattering pattern and dispersion relations in Tb2Ti2O7, semi-quantitatively consistent with experimental observations.Comment: revtex4, 4 pages, 1 Color+ 2 BW figure

A collaborative hackathon to investigate climate change and extreme weather impacts in justice and insurance settings

By bringing together a large group of participants with diverse skillsets, hackathons aim to make good headway into a particular research topic over a short period of time. This collaborative approach supports relationship building, cross team working and the development of technical skills across different areas

Identifying limitations when deriving probabilistic views of North Atlantic hurricane hazard from counterfactual ensemble NWP re-forecasts

Downward counterfactual analysis – or quantitatively estimating how our observed history could have been worse – is increasingly being used by the re/insurance industry to identify, quantify, and mitigate against as-yet-unrealised “grey-swan” catastrophic events. While useful for informing site-specific adaptation strategies, the extraction of probabilistic information remains intangible from such downside-only focused analytics. We hypothesise that combined upward and downward counterfactual analysis (i.e., how history could have been either better or worse) may allow us to obtain probabilistic information from counterfactual research if it can be applied objectively and without bias. Here we test this concept of objective counterfactual analysis by investigating how initial-condition-driven track variability of events in our North Atlantic Hurricane (NAHU) record may affect present-day probabilistic views of US landfall risk. To do this, we create 10,000 counterfactual NAHU histories from NCEP GEFS v2 initial-condition ensemble reforecast data for the period 1985-2016 and compare the statistics of these counterfactual histories to a model-based version of our single observational history. While the methodology presented herein attempts to produce the histories as objectively as possible, there is clear – and, ultimately, intuitively understandable – systematic underprediction of US NAHU landfall frequency in the counterfactual histories. This limits the ability to use the data in real-world applications at present. However, even with this systematic under-prediction, it is interesting to note both the magnitude of volatility and spatial variability in hurricane landfalls in single cities and wider regions along the US coastline, which speaks to the potential value of objective counterfactual analysis once methods have evolved

Factors influencing terrestriality in primates of the Americas and Madagascar

Among mammals, the order Primates is exceptional in having a high taxonomic richness in which the taxa are arboreal, semiterrestrial, or terrestrial. Although habitual terrestriality is pervasive among the apes and African and Asian monkeys (catarrhines), it is largely absent among monkeys of the Americas (platyrrhines), as well as galagos, lemurs, and lorises (strepsirrhines), which are mostly arboreal. Numerous ecological drivers and species-specific factors are suggested to set the conditions for an evolutionary shift from arboreality to terrestriality, and current environmental conditions may provide analogous scenarios to those transitional periods. Therefore, we investigated predominantly arboreal, diurnal primate genera from the Americas and Madagascar that lack fully terrestrial taxa, to determine whether ecological drivers (habitat canopy cover, predation risk, maximum temperature, precipitation, primate species richness, human population density, and distance to roads) or species-specific traits (body mass, group size, and degree of frugivory) associate with increased terrestriality. We collated 150,961 observation hours across 2,227 months from 47 species at 20 sites in Madagascar and 48 sites in the Americas. Multiple factors were associated with ground use in these otherwise arboreal species, including increased temperature, a decrease in canopy cover, a dietary shift away from frugivory, and larger group size. These factors mostly explain intraspecific differences in terrestriality. As humanity modifies habitats and causes climate change, our results suggest that species already inhabiting hot, sparsely canopied sites, and exhibiting more generalized diets, are more likely to shift toward greater ground use.Fil: Eppley, Timothy M.. San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance; Estados Unidos. Portland State University; Estados UnidosFil: Hoeks, Selwyn. Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen; Países BajosFil: Chapman, Colin A.. University of KwaZulu-Natal; Sudáfrica. Wilson Center; Estados Unidos. Northwest University; China. The George Washington University; Estados UnidosFil: Ganzhorn, Jörg U.. Universitat Hamburg; AlemaniaFil: Hall, Katie. Sedgwick County Zoo; Estados UnidosFil: Owen, Megan A.. San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance; Estados UnidosFil: Adams, Dara B.. Humboldt State University; Estados Unidos. Ohio State University; Estados UnidosFil: Allgas, Néstor. Asociación Neotropical Primate Conservation Perú; PerúFil: Amato, Katherine R.. Northwestern University; Estados UnidosFil: Andriamahaihavana, McAntonin. Université D'antananarivo; MadagascarFil: Aristizabal, John F.. Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez; México. Universidad de los Andes; ColombiaFil: Baden, Andrea L.. City University of New York; Estados Unidos. New York Consortium In Evolutionary Primatology; Estados UnidosFil: Balestri, Michela. Oxford Brookes University (oxford Brookes University);Fil: Barnett, Adrian A.. University Of Roehampton; Reino Unido. Universidade Federal de Pernambuco; BrasilFil: Bicca Marques, Júlio César. Pontificia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Bowler, Mark. University Of Suffolk; Reino Unido. San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance; Estados UnidosFil: Boyle, Sarah A.. Rhodes College; Estados UnidosFil: Brown, Meredith. University of Calgary; CanadáFil: Caillaud, Damien. University of California at Davis; Estados UnidosFil: Calegaro Marques, Cláudia. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Campbell, Christina J.. California State University Northridge (calif. State Univ. Northridge);Fil: Campera, Marco. Oxford Brookes University (oxford Brookes University);Fil: Campos, Fernando A.. University of Texas at San Antonio; Estados UnidosFil: Cardoso, Tatiane S.. Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi; BrasilFil: Carretero Pinzón, Xyomara. Proyecto Zocay; ColombiaFil: Champion, Jane. University of Calgary; CanadáFil: Chaves, Óscar M.. Universidad de Costa Rica; Costa RicaFil: Chen Kraus, Chloe. University of Yale; Estados UnidosFil: Colquhoun, Ian C.. Western University; CanadáFil: Dean, Brittany. University of Calgary; CanadáFil: Kowalewski, Miguel Martin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales "Bernardino Rivadavia". Estación Biológica de Usos Múltiples (Sede Corrientes); Argentin

Factors influencing terrestriality in primates of the Americas and Madagascar

Among mammals, the order Primates is exceptional in having a high taxonomic richness in which the taxa are arboreal, semiterrestrial, or terrestrial. Although habitual terrestriality is pervasive among the apes and African and Asian monkeys (catarrhines), it is largely absent among monkeys of the Americas (platyrrhines), as well as galagos, lemurs, and lorises (strepsirrhines), which are mostly arboreal. Numerous ecological drivers and species-specific factors are suggested to set the conditions for an evolutionary shift from arboreality to terrestriality, and current environmental conditions may provide analogous scenarios to those transitional periods. Therefore, we investigated predominantly arboreal, diurnal primate genera from the Americas and Madagascar that lack fully terrestrial taxa, to determine whether ecological drivers (habitat canopy cover, predation risk, maximum temperature, precipitation, primate species richness, human population density, and distance to roads) or species-specific traits (bodymass, group size, and degree of frugivory) associate with increased terrestriality. We collated 150,961 observation hours across 2,227 months from 47 species at 20 sites in Madagascar and 48 sites in the Americas. Multiple factors were associated with ground use in these otherwise arboreal species, including increased temperature, a decrease in canopy cover, a dietary shift away from frugivory, and larger group size. These factors mostly explain intraspecific differences in terrestriality. As humanity modifies habitats and causes climate change, our results suggest that species already inhabiting hot, sparsely canopied sites, and exhibiting more generalized diets, are more likely to shift toward greater ground use

AI is a viable alternative to high throughput screening: a 318-target study

: High throughput screening (HTS) is routinely used to identify bioactive small molecules. This requires physical compounds, which limits coverage of accessible chemical space. Computational approaches combined with vast on-demand chemical libraries can access far greater chemical space, provided that the predictive accuracy is sufficient to identify useful molecules. Through the largest and most diverse virtual HTS campaign reported to date, comprising 318 individual projects, we demonstrate that our AtomNet® convolutional neural network successfully finds novel hits across every major therapeutic area and protein class. We address historical limitations of computational screening by demonstrating success for target proteins without known binders, high-quality X-ray crystal structures, or manual cherry-picking of compounds. We show that the molecules selected by the AtomNet® model are novel drug-like scaffolds rather than minor modifications to known bioactive compounds. Our empirical results suggest that computational methods can substantially replace HTS as the first step of small-molecule drug discovery