Characteristics of Western North Pacific Model Tropical Cyclogenesis

"Tropical cyclogenesis" in a low-resolution Atmospheric General Circulation model is studied, focusing on the Western North Pacific region during the June-October typhoon season. Time-dependent composites of the cyclones are formed and analyzed, with a focus on the temporal evolution of quantities averaged in space around the storm centers. Day zero of each composite corresponds to the time at which the cyclone passes the criteria for detection. Some variables whose magnitude is related to cyclone intensity (such as low-level vorticity and surface wind speed) show similar temporal evolution, with a slight decrease up to a few days before day zero, a weak local minimum at that point, and a strong increase after that for a week or more. The relative humidity at low levels has its minimum somewhat later, at about day zero. The mean composite environmental vertical wind shear lacks a minimum and increases monotonically through the entire genesis period until a week after day zero. This variation is mostly due to the mean cyclone track's moving through regions of different climatological shear, which varies monotonically from easterly to westerly, crossing zero shortly after day zero, and would be consistent with a controlling role of the shear on model cyclogenesis. A signal in the skewness of the lower-level relative humidity distribution over the ensemble suggests that a dry lower troposphere can prevent development of a model cyclone. The local minimum in many variables' time series suggests the presence of an initial disturbance that is suddenly enhanced, becoming a model tropical cyclone, as has been noted in observations

Workshop on Tropical Cyclones and Climate, March 27-29, 2006

In March 2006, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) hosted a two and a half day workshop on "Tropical Cyclones and Climate". The centerpiece of the workshop was a set of invited lectures, with a modest number of contributed oral presentations and a small poster session. Relatively lengthy discussion periods were built into the schedule, allowing in-depth discussion of the presentations and related issues

Description and Skill Evaluation of Experimental Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity at IRI

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society has been issuing experimental seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts for several ocean basins since early 2003. In this paper we describe the method used to obtain these forecasts, and evaluate their performance. The forecasts are based on tropical cyclone-like features detected and tracked in a low-resolution climate model, namely ECHAM4.5. The simulation skill of the model using historical observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over several decades, as well as with SST anomalies persisted from the month ending at the forecast start time, is discussed. These simulation skills are compared with skills of purely statistically based hindcasts using as predictors observed SSTs preceding the forecast start time. For the recent 6-year period during which real-time forecasts have been made, the skill of the raw model output is compared with that of the subjectively modified probabilistic forecasts actually issued. Despite variations from one basin to another, the hindcast skills of the dynamical and statistical forecast approaches are found, overall, to be approximately equivalent. The dynamical forecasts require statistical post-prossessing (calibration) to be competitive with, and in some circumstances superior to, the statistical models. Hence, during the recent period of real-time forecasts, the subjective forecasts are found to have resulted in probabilistic skill better than that of the raw model output, primarily because of the forecasters' elimination of the systematic bias of "overconfidence" in the model's forecasts. Prospects for the future improvement of dynamical tropical cyclone prediction are considered

The Effect of Regional Climate Model Domain Choice on the Simulation of Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Southwestern Indian Ocean

While GCMs do simulate tropical cyclone-like vortex tracks in the southern Indian Ocean, they do not capture well those which make landfall in southern Africa. The feasibility of using a nested modelling system to produce seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts is examined, since improved horizontal resolution may potentially improve simulated cyclone tracks. As a first approach, a regional climate model is driven by time-dependent large-scale meteorological analyses for several domain configurations. Tropical cyclones across the southern Indian Ocean are likely to be significantly affected by the large-scale zonal flow. Therefore, the effects of model domain size and the positioning of its lateral boundaries on the simulation of tropical cyclone-like vortices and their tracks on a seasonal time scale are investigated. Four tropical cyclones are studied, which occurred in January of the years 1995 to 1997. Results show that the positioning of the eastern boundary of the regional model domain is of significant importance in the life cycle of simulated tropical cyclone-like vortices: a vortex entering through the eastern boundary of the regional model is generally well simulated. It is inferred from these results that the nested approach can potentially improve upon the frequency of landfalling tracks over southern Africa simulated by GCMs

Properties of Tropical Cyclones in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

The properties of tropical cyclones in three atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) with low-resolution are discussed. The models are analysed for a period of 40 years. Characteristics of the tropical cyclones in the models are analysed and compared with those of observations, such as genesis position, number of cyclones, accumulated cyclone activity, number of storm days, tracks, and others. The three AGCMs have different levels of skill in simulating the different aspects of tropical cyclone activity in different regions. Some of the weak and strong features in simulating tropical cyclone activity variables are common for the three models, others are unique for each model and basin. The relation between model tropical cyclones and ENSO is analyzed in a paper currently in preparation

Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis

ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) has a large influence on tropical cyclone activity. The authors examine how different environmental factors contribute to this influence, using a genesis potential index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. Four factors contribute to the genesis potential index: low-level vorticity (850hPa), relative humidity at 600hPa, the magnitude of vertical wind shear from 850 to 200hPa and potential intensity (PI). Using monthly NCEP Reanalysis data in the period of 1950-2005, we calculate the genesis potential index on a latitude strip from 60°S to 60°N. Composite anomalies of the genesis potential index are produced for El Nino and La Nina years separately. These composites qualitatively replicate the observed interannual variations of the observed frequency and location of genesis in several different basins. This justifies producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology, to determine which among the factors are most important in causing interannual variations in genesis frequency. Specific factors that have more influence than others in different regions can be identified. For example, in El Nino years, relative humidity and vertical shear are important for the reduction in genesis seen in the Atlantic basin, and relative humidity and vorticity are important for the eastward shift in the mean genesis location in the western North Pacific

Classifying North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks by Mass Moments

A new method for classifying tropical cyclones or similar features is introduced. The cyclone track is considered as an open spatial curve, with the wind speed or power information along the curve considered to be a mass attribute. The first and second moments of the resulting object are computed and then used to classify the historical tracks using standard clustering algorithms. Mass moments allow the whole track shape, length, and location to be incorporated into the clustering methodology. Tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin are clustered with K-means by mass moments, producing an optimum of six clusters with differing genesis locations, track shapes, intensities, life spans, landfalls, seasonal patterns, and trends. Even variables that are not directly clustered show distinct separation between clusters. A trend analysis confirms recent conclusions of increasing tropical cyclones in the basin over the past two decades. However, the trends vary across clusters

Little evidence of reduced global tropical cyclone activity following recent volcanic eruptions

The impact of volcanic aerosols on recent global tropical cyclone (TC) activity is examined in observations, reanalysis, and models (the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 - CMIP5 multi-model, and one single model large ensemble). In observations, we find a reduction of TC activity only in the North Atlantic following the last three strong volcanic eruptions; that signal, however, cannot be clearly attributed to volcanoes, as all three eruptions were simultaneous with El Niño events. In reanalyses, we find no robust impact of volcanic eruptions on potential intensity (PI) and genesis indices. In models, we find a reduction in PI after volcanic eruptions in the historical simulations, but this effect is significantly reduced when differences between the model environment and observations are accounted for. Morever, the CMIP5 multi-model historical ensemble shows no effect of volcanic eruptions on a TC genesis index. Finally, there is no robust and consistent reduction in recent TC activity following recent volcanic eruptions in a large set of synthetic TCs downscaled from these simulations. Taken together, these results show that in recent eruptions volcanic aerosols did not reduce global TC activity

Tropical cyclones and climate change: recent results and uncertainties

In the first part of the talk I’ll give an overview of the current understanding and recent progress on the influence of climate changes on tropical cyclones. I’ll discuss both attribution of current trends, as well as projections for the end of the century. In the second part of the talk, I’ll describe the hazard model developed at Columbia University to study tropical cyclones risk, namely CHAZ (Columbia Hazard Model) and discuss its main properties in the current climate. Then I’ll discuss two applications of this model: first, analyzing the current risk of tropical cyclones to Mumbai; second, describing how CHAZ can be used to study the influence of climate change on tropical cyclones and our recent results on this topic. In particular, I’ll discuss the uncertainties in tropical cyclone frequency projections based on CHAZ and compare with the current state-of-the-art knowledge on this topic

Global and Regional Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the CMIP5 Models

Tropical cyclone (TC) activity is analyzed in 14 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The global TC activity in the historical runs is compared with observations. The simulation of TC activity in the CMIP5 models is not as good as in higher-resolution simulations. The CMIP5 global TC frequency is much lower than observed, and there is significant deficiency in the geographical patterns of TC tracks and formation. Although all of the models underestimate the global frequency of TCs, the models present a wide range of global TC frequency. The models with the highest horizontal resolution have the highest level of global TC activity, though resolution is not the only factor that determines model TC activity. A cold SST bias could potentially contribute to the low number of TCs in the models. The models show no consensus regarding the difference of TC activity in two warming scenarios [representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5] and the historical simulation. The author examined in more detail North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific TC activity in a subset of models and found no robust changes across models in TC frequency. Therefore, there is no robust signal across the CMIP5 models in global and regional TC changes in activity for future scenarios. The future changes in various large-scale environmental fields associated with TC activity were also examined globally: genesis potential index, potential intensity, vertical wind shear, and sea level pressure. The multimodel mean changes of these variables in the CMIP5 models are consistent with the changes obtained in the CMIP3 models