Risk Factors for Prognosis in Patients With Severely Decreased GFR

Introduction: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (corresponding to CKD stage G4+) comprise a minority of the overall CKD population but have the highest risk for adverse outcomes. Many CKD G4+ patients are older with multiple comorbidities, which may distort associations between risk factors and clinical outcomes. Methods: We undertook a meta-analysis of risk factors for kidney failure treated with kidney replacement therapy (KRT), cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, and death in participants with CKD G4+ from 28 cohorts (n = 185,024) across the world who were part of the CKD Prognosis Consortium. Results: In the fully adjusted meta-analysis, risk factors associated with KRT were time-varying CVD, male sex, black race, diabetes, lower eGFR, and higher albuminuria and systolic blood pressure. Age was associated with a lower risk of KRT (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.80) overall, and also in the subgroup of individuals younger than 65 years. The risk factors for CVD events included male sex, history of CVD, diabetes, lower eGFR, higher albuminuria, and the onset of KRT. Systolic blood pressure showed a U-shaped association with CVD events. Risk factors for mortality were similar to those for CVD events but also included smoking. Most risk factors had qualitatively consistent associations across cohorts. Conclusion: Traditional CVD risk factors are of prognostic value in individuals with an eGFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2, although the risk estimates vary for kidney and CVD outcomes. These results should encourage interventional studies on correcting risk factors in this high-risk population

APOL1 Risk Variants, Race, and Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease

Background Among patients in the United States with chronic kidney disease, black patients are at increased risk for end-stage renal disease, as compared with white patients. Methods In two studies, we examined the effects of variants in the gene encoding apolipoprotein L1 (APOL1) on the progression of chronic kidney disease. In the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK), we evaluated 693 black patients with chronic kidney disease attributed to hypertension. In the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study, we evaluated 2955 white patients and black patients with chronic kidney disease (46% of whom had diabetes) according to whether they had 2 copies of high-risk APOL1 variants (APOL1 high-risk group) or 0 or 1 copy (APOL1 low-risk group). In the AASK study, the primary outcome was a composite of end-stage renal disease or a doubling of the serum creatinine level. In the CRIC study, the primary outcomes were the slope in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the composite of end-stage renal disease or a reduction of 50% in the eGFR from baseline. Results In the AASK study, the primary outcome occurred in 58.1% of the patients in the APOL1 high-risk group and in 36.6% of those in the APOL1 low-risk group (hazard ratio in the high-risk group, 1.88; P<0.001). There was no interaction between APOL1 status and trial interventions or the presence of baseline proteinuria. In the CRIC study, black patients in the APOL1 high-risk group had a more rapid decline in the eGFR and a higher risk of the composite renal outcome than did white patients, among those with diabetes and those without diabetes (P<0.001 for all comparisons). Conclusions Renal risk variants in APOL1 were associated with the higher rates of end-stage renal disease and progression of chronic kidney disease that were observed in black patients as compared with white patients, regardless of diabetes status. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others.