Effect of health on economic growth in Ghana:An application of ARDL bounds test to cointegration

In this paper, the growth effect of health in Ghana is examined for the period 1982 to 2012. We use life expectancy at birth as a proxy for health, and real per capita GDP as a proxy for economic growth. After employing ARDL bounds test approach to cointegration, and controlling for the effects of education, international trade, FDI, inflation, and accumulation of physical capital, we find that economic growth is significantly driven by health, both in the short and long run. However, the favourable growth effect of health in the short run is found to be lower.The implication is that improvement in health status of the population raises output in the economy. In this regard, policy should aim at raising health sector investment and strengthen the healthcare system to improve health status

Preferred Primary Healthcare Provider Choice Among Insured Persons in Ashanti Region, Ghana

Background: In early 2012, National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) members in Ashanti Region were allowed to choose their own primary healthcare providers. This paper investigates the factors that enrolees in the Ashanti Region considered in choosing preferred primary healthcare providers (PPPs) and direction of association of such factors with the choice of PPP. Methods: Using a cross-sectional study design, the study sampled 600 NHIS enrolees in Kumasi Metro area and Kwabre East district. The sampling methods were a combination of simple random and systematic sampling techniques at different stages. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse demographic information and the criteria for selecting PPP. Multinomial logistic regression technique was used to ascertain the direction of association of the factors and the choice of PPP using mission PPPs as the base outcome. Results: Out of the 600 questionnaires administered, 496 were retained for further analysis. The results show that availability of essential drugs (53.63%) and doctors (39.92%), distance or proximity (49.60%), provider reputation (39.52%), waiting time (39.92), additional charges (37.10%), and recommendations (48.79%) were the main criteria adopted by enrolees in selecting PPPs. In the regression, income (-0.0027), availability of doctors (-1.82), additional charges (-2.14) and reputation (-2.09) were statistically significant at 1% in influencing the choice of government PPPs. On the part of private PPPs, availability of drugs (2.59), waiting time (1.45), residence (-2.62), gender (-2.89), and reputation (-2.69) were statistically significant at 1% level. Presence of additional charges (-1.29) was statistically significant at 5% level. Conclusion: Enrolees select their PPPs based on such factors as availability of doctors and essential drugs, reputation, waiting time, income, and their residence. Based on these findings, there is the need for healthcare providers to improve on their quality levels by ensuring constant availability of essential drugs, doctors, and shorter waiting time. However, individual enrolees may value each criterion differently. Thus, not all enrolees may be motivated by same concerns. This requires providers to be circumspect regarding the factors that may attract enrolees. The National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA) should also ensure timely release of funds to help providers procure the necessary medical supplies to ensure quality servic

Public Health Expenditure and Health Status in Ghana

Health is an important component of human capital yielding economic returns to its investors. It also improves people’s welfare. Investment in health, therefore, is an important source of productivity, growth and quality of life. In this study, we examined the impact of public health spending on health status, i.e., infant mortality, in Ghana. The study employed standard OLS and Newey-west estimation to examine the impact of public health spending on health status (i.e. infant mortality rate) for the period 1990 – 2012. After controlling for real per capita income, literacy level, and female participation in the labour market, we find evidence that the declining or falling infant mortality rate in Ghana has been influenced by public health spending among other factors. Thus, public healthcare expenditure is associated with improvement in health status through reduction in infant mortality. The implications for policy are discussed

Association between Healthcare Provider Payment Systems and Health Outcomes in Ghana

Different payment systems generate different incentives for patients, providers, and purchasers. This study uncovers the effect of provider-payment methods on patient health outcomes, utilization of healthcare services and referral patterns in Ghana. Using data on 250 enrollees of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) from each payment plan (i.e., capitation and Diagnosis Related Groupings/fee-for-service plans), ordered logit, negative binomial and logit regression results showed that patients under capitation were 4.6% less likely to report better health and had 29% fewer visits relative to patients under DRG/FFS. In relation to referrals, capitated providers were more likely to refer patients than under DRG/FFS plans. Better health outcomes were reported by patients of private health facilities. Capitation in Ghana led to under-provision of care and cost-shifting, hence decreasing any efficiency gain from the reform. Purchasing of healthcare needs to be strategized to ensure efficient utilization of resources

Assessing changes in non-alcoholic sugary beverage prices in Agincourt following South Africa’s Health Promotion Levy:A pre- and post-implementation study

Background: Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) effectively reduces consumption when it leads to increased consumer prices and demand is sufficiently responsive, alongside other factors. Given the significant disparities in health outcomes between urban and rural provinces, this study to seeks to measure the changes in the prices of SSBs in rural South Africa and estimate the extent of the tax passthrough following the introduction of the Health Promotion Levy (HPL). Design and methods: We employed pre-post regression analyses techniques using the 2023 HAALSI Nutritional Establishment survey data.Results:The results show that the HPL led to an increase in prices (in real terms), and the price increase was more than that of the HPL. On average, the price of carbonated beverages increased by ZAR2.24 per litre (95% CI: 1.65–2.83) post the introduction of the HPL. However, the price increase was only registered during the period the HPL was introduced. The tax passthrough for carbonates was estimated at 1.87, implying that the tax was overshifted to consumers. Conclusions:This study shows that introduction of the HPL led to an increase in prices of carbonated beverages in Agincourt. The value of the HPL was however eroded over time by inflation. Considering that the effective tax burden of the HPL is substantially below the 20% minimum threshold recommended by the World Health Organisation, it is important that the government raises the HPL to maintain its value. Increasing the HPL is important to incentivise people to reduce SSB consumption.</p

Costs and cost-effectiveness of treatment setting for children with wasting, oedema and growth failure/faltering: A systematic review

This systematic review aimed to address the existing evidence gaps, and guide policy decisions on the settings within which to treat infants <12 months of age with growth faltering/failure, and infants and children aged <60 months with moderate wasting or severe wasting and/or bilateral pitting oedema. Twelve electronic databases were searched for studies published before 10 December 2021. The searches yielded 16,709 records from which 31 studies were eligible and included in the review. Three studies were judged as low quality, whilst 14 were moderate and the remaining 14 were high quality. We identified very few cost and cost-effectiveness analyses for most of the models of care with the certainty of evidence being judged at very low or low. However, there were 17 cost and 6 cost-effectiveness analyses for the initiation of treatment in outpatient settings for severe wasting and/or bilateral pitting oedema in infants and children <60 months of age. From this evidence, the costs appear lowest for initiating treatment in community settings, followed by initiating treatment in community and transferring to outpatient settings, initiating treatment in outpatients then transferring to community settings, initiating treatment in outpatient settings, and lastly initiating treatment in inpatient settings. In addition, the evidence suggested that initiation of treatment in outpatient settings is highly cost-effective when compared to doing nothing or no programme implementation scenarios, using country-specific WHO GDP per capita thresholds. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from $20 to$145 per DALY averted from a provider perspective, and $68 to$161 per DALY averted from a societal perspective. However, the certainty of the evidence was judged as moderate because of comparisons to do nothing/ no programme scenarios which potentially limits the applicability of the evidence in real-world settings. There is therefore a need for evidence that compare the different available alternatives

Equity impact of minimum unit pricing of alcohol on household health and finances among rich and poor drinkers in South Africa

INTRODUCTION: South Africa experiences significant levels of alcohol-related harm. Recent research suggests minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol would be an effective policy, but high levels of income inequality raise concerns about equity impacts. This paper quantifies the equity impact of MUP on household health and finances in rich and poor drinkers in South Africa. METHODS: We draw from extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) methods and an epidemiological policy appraisal model of MUP for South Africa to simulate the equity impact of a ZAR 10 MUP over a 20-year time horizon. We estimate the impact across wealth quintiles on: (i) alcohol consumption and expenditures; (ii) mortality; (iii) government healthcare cost savings; (iv) reductions in cases of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) and household savings linked to reduced health-related workplace absence. RESULTS: We estimate MUP would reduce consumption more among the poorest than the richest drinkers. Expenditure would increase by ZAR 353 000 million (1 US$=13.2 ZAR), the poorest contributing 13% and the richest 28% of the increase, although this remains regressive compared with mean income. Of the 22 600 deaths averted, 56% accrue to the bottom two quintiles; government healthcare cost savings would be substantial (ZAR 3.9 billion). Cases of CHE averted would be 564 700, 46% among the poorest two quintiles. Indirect cost savings amount to ZAR 51.1 billion. CONCLUSIONS: A MUP policy in South Africa has the potential to reduce harm and health inequality. Fiscal policies for population health require structured policy appraisal, accounting for the totality of effects using mathematical models in association with ECEA methodology

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Global investments in pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: development assistance and domestic spending on health between 1990 and 2026

Background The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted gaps in health surveillance systems, disease prevention, and treatment globally. Among the many factors that might have led to these gaps is the issue of the financing of national health systems, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as a robust global system for pandemic preparedness. We aimed to provide a comparative assessment of global health spending at the onset of the pandemic; characterise the amount of development assistance for pandemic preparedness and response disbursed in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic; and examine expectations for future health spending and put into context the expected need for investment in pandemic preparedness. Methods In this analysis of global health spending between 1990 and 2021, and prediction from 2021 to 2026, we estimated four sources of health spending: development assistance for health (DAH), government spending, out-of-pocket spending, and prepaid private spending across 204 countries and territories. We used the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)'s Creditor Reporting System (CRS) and the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database (GHED) to estimate spending. We estimated development assistance for general health, COVID-19 response, and pandemic preparedness and response using a keyword search. Health spending estimates were combined with estimates of resources needed for pandemic prevention and preparedness to analyse future health spending patterns, relative to need. Findings In 2019, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, US$9·2 trillion (95$7·3 trillion (95% UI 7·2–7·4) in 2019; 293·7 times the $24·8 billion (95$43·1 billion in development assistance was provided to maintain or improve health. The pandemic led to an unprecedented increase in development assistance targeted towards health; in 2020 and 2021, $1·8 billion in DAH contributions was provided towards pandemic preparedness in LMICs, and$37·8 billion was provided for the health-related COVID-19 response. Although the support for pandemic preparedness is 12·2% of the recommended target by the High-Level Independent Panel (HLIP), the support provided for the health-related COVID-19 response is 252·2% of the recommended target. Additionally, projected spending estimates suggest that between 2022 and 2026, governments in 17 (95% UI 11–21) of the 137 LMICs will observe an increase in national government health spending equivalent to an addition of 1% of GDP, as recommended by the HLIP. Interpretation There was an unprecedented scale-up in DAH in 2020 and 2021. We have a unique opportunity at this time to sustain funding for crucial global health functions, including pandemic preparedness. However, historical patterns of underfunding of pandemic preparedness suggest that deliberate effort must be made to ensure funding is maintained

Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundSmoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies. MethodsIn this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework. FindingsGlobal age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9–29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76–6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference scenario, smoking prevalence declined by 25·9% (25·2–26·6) among males, and 30·0% (26·1–32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this scenario, we forecast a cumulative 29·3 billion (95% UI 26·8–32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion (20·1–24·6) YLLs among females over this period. Life expectancy at birth under this scenario would increase from 73·6 years (95% UI 72·8–74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years (75·9–80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023 scenario, we forecast 2·04 billion (95% UI 1·90–2·21) fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference scenario, and life expectancy at birth would increase to 77·6 years (95% UI 75·1–79·6) among males and 81·0 years (78·5–83·1) among females. Under our Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million (675–808) and 141 million (131–154) cumulative YLLs would be avoided among males and females, respectively. Life expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 years (95% UI 74·6–79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3–82·9) among females. InterpretationExisting tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination. Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial in avoiding additional smoking-attributable burden in the coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the past three decades are not lost. FundingBloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation