The SITS-UTMOST: a registry-based prospective study in Europe investigating the impact of regulatory approval of intravenous Actilyse in the extended time window (3–4.5 h) in acute ischaemic stroke

Introduction: The SITS-UTMOST (Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Upper Time window Monitoring Study) was a registry-based prospective study of intravenous alteplase used in the extended time window (3–4.5 h) in acute ischaemic stroke to evaluate the impact of the approval of the extended time window on routine clinical practice. Patients and methods: Inclusion of at least 1000 patients treated within 3–4.5 h according to the licensed criteria and actively registered in the SITS-International Stroke Thrombolysis Registry was planned. Prospective data collection started 2 May 2012 and ended 2 November 2014. A historical cohort was identified for 2 years preceding May 2012. Clinical management and outcome were contrasted between patients treated within 3 h versus 3–4.5 h in the prospective cohort and between historical and prospective cohorts for the 3 h time window. Outcomes were functional independency (modified Rankin scale, mRS) 0–2, favourable outcome (mRS 0–1), and death at 3 months and symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage (SICH) per SITS. Results: 4157 patients from 81 centres in 12 EU countries were entered prospectively (N ¼ 1118 in the 3–4.5 h, N ¼ 3039 in the 0–3 h time window) and 3454 retrospective patients in the 0–3 h time window who met the marketing approval conditions. In the prospective cohort, median arrival to treatment time was longer in the 3–4.5 h than 3 h window (79 vs. 55 min). Within the 3 h time window, treatment delays were shorter for prospective than historical patients (55 vs. 63). There was no significant difference between the 3–4.5 h versus 3 h prospective cohort with regard to percentage of reported SICH (1.6 vs. 1.7), death (11.6 vs. 11.1), functional independency (66 vs. 65) at 3 months or favourable outcome (51 vs. 50). Discussion: Main weakness is the observational design of the study. Conclusion: This study neither identified negative impact on treatment delay, nor on outcome, following extension of the approved time window to 4.5 h for use of alteplase in stroke

Multivariable analysis of outcome predictors and adjustment of main outcome results to baseline data profile in randomized controlled trials: Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-MOnitoring STudy (SITS-MOST)

<p><b>Background and Purpose:</b> The Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke-MOnitoring STudy (SITS-MOST) unadjusted results demonstrated that intravenous alteplase is well tolerated and that the effects were comparable with those seen in randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) when used in routine clinical practice within 3 hours of ischemic stroke onset. We aimed to identify outcome predictors and adjust the outcomes of the SITS-MOST to the baseline characteristics of RCTs.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> The study population was SITS-MOST (n=6483) and pooled RCTs (n=464) patients treated with intravenous alteplase within 3 hours of stroke onset. Multivariable, backward stepwise regression analyses (until P≤0.10) were performed to identify the outcome predictors for SITS-MOST. Variables appearing either in the final multivariable model or differing (P<0.10) between SITS-MOST and RCTs were included in the prediction model for the adjustment of outcomes. Main outcome measures were symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage, defined as National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale deterioration ≥1 within 7 days with any hemorrhage (RCT definition), mortality, and independency as defined by modified Rankin Score of 0 to 2 at 3 months.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> The adjusted proportion of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage for SITS-MOST was 8.5% (95% CI, 7.9 to 9.0) versus 8.6% (6.3 to 11.6) for pooled RCTs; mortality was 15.5% (14.7 to 16.2) versus 17.3% (14.1 to 21.1); and independency was 50.4% (49.6 to 51.2) versus 50.1% (44.5 to 54.7), respectively. In the multivariable analysis, older age, high blood glucose, high National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and current infarction on imaging scans were related to poor outcome in all parameters. Systolic blood pressure, atrial fibrillation, and weight were additional predictors of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage. Current smokers had a lower rate of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage. Disability before current stroke (modified Rankin Score 2 to 5), diastolic blood pressure, antiplatelet other than aspirin, congestive heart failure, patients treated in new centers, and male sex were related to high mortality at 3 months.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> The adjusted outcomes from SITS-MOST were almost identical to those in relevant RCTs and reinforce the conclusion drawn previously in the unadjusted analysis. We identified several important outcome predictors to better identify patients suitable for thrombolysis.</p&gt

Effects of alteplase for acute stroke according to criteria defining the European Union and United States marketing authorizations: individual-patient-data meta-analysis of randomized trials

Background: The recommended maximum age and time window for intravenous alteplase treatment of acute ischemic stroke differs between the Europe Union and United States. Aims: We compared the effects of alteplase in cohorts defined by the current Europe Union or United States marketing approval labels, and by hypothetical revisions of the labels that would remove the Europe Union upper age limit or extend the United States treatment time window to 4.5 h. Methods: We assessed outcomes in an individual-patient-data meta-analysis of eight randomized trials of intravenous alteplase (0.9 mg/kg) versus control for acute ischemic stroke. Outcomes included: excellent outcome (modified Rankin score 0–1) at 3–6 months, the distribution of modified Rankin score, symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage, and 90-day mortality. Results: Alteplase increased the odds of modified Rankin score 0–1 among 2449/6136 (40%) patients who met the current European Union label and 3491 (57%) patients who met the age-revised label (odds ratio 1.42, 95% CI 1.21−1.68 and 1.43, 1.23−1.65, respectively), but not in those outside the age-revised label (1.06, 0.90−1.26). By 90 days, there was no increased mortality in the current and age-revised cohorts (hazard ratios 0.98, 95% CI 0.76−1.25 and 1.01, 0.86–1.19, respectively) but mortality remained higher outside the age-revised label (1.19, 0.99–1.42). Similarly, alteplase increased the odds of modified Rankin score 0-1 among 1174/6136 (19%) patients who met the current US approval and 3326 (54%) who met a 4.5-h revised approval (odds ratio 1.55, 1.19−2.01 and 1.37, 1.17−1.59, respectively), but not for those outside the 4.5-h revised approval (1.14, 0.97−1.34). By 90 days, no increased mortality remained for the current and 4.5-h revised label cohorts (hazard ratios 0.99, 0.77−1.26 and 1.02, 0.87–1.20, respectively) but mortality remained higher outside the 4.5-h revised approval (1.17, 0.98–1.41). Conclusions: An age-revised European Union label or 4.5-h-revised United States label would each increase the number of patients deriving net benefit from alteplase by 90 days after acute ischemic stroke, without excess mortality

Fibrinolysis or Primary PCI in ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUNDIt is not known whether prehospital fibrinolysis, coupled with timely coronary angiography, provides a clinical outcome similar to that with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) early after acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).METHODSAmong 1892 patients with STEMI who presented within 3 hours after symptom onset and who were unable to undergo primary PCI within 1 hour, patients were randomly assigned to undergo either primary PCI or fibrinolytic therapy with bolus tenecteplase (amended to half dose in patients >= 75 years of age), clopidogrel, and enoxaparin before transport to a PCI-capable hospital. Emergency coronary angiography was performed if fibrinolysis failed; otherwise, angiography was performed 6 to 24 hours after randomization. the primary end point was a composite of death, shock, congestive heart failure, or reinfarction up to 30 days.RESULTSThe primary end point occurred in 116 of 939 patients (12.4%) in the fibrinolysis group and in 135 of 943 patients (14.3%) in the primary PCI group (relative risk in the fibrinolysis group, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.68 to 1.09; P = 0.21). Emergency angiography was required in 36.3% of patients in the fibrinolysis group, whereas the remainder of patients underwent angiography at a median of 17 hours after randomization. More intracranial hemorrhages occurred in the fibrinolysis group than in the primary PCI group (1.0% vs. 0.2%, P = 0.04; after protocol amendment, 0.5% vs. 0.3%, P = 0.45). the rates of nonintracranial bleeding were similar in the two groups.CONCLUSIONSPrehospital fibrinolysis with timely coronary angiography resulted in effective reperfusion in patients with early STEMI who could not undergo primary PCI within 1 hour after the first medical contact. However, fibrinolysis was associated with a slightly increased risk of intracranial bleeding. (Funded by Boehringer Ingelheim; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00623623.)Boehringer IngelheimEli LillyMerckRocheDaiichi SankyoMedicines CompanyAstraZenecaSanofiBayerSchering-PloughSanofi-AventisBristol-Myers SquibbAbbottMedtronicEdwards LifesciencesServierPfizerUniv Alberta, Canadian Virtual Coordinating Ctr Global Collabor, Edmonton, AB, CanadaUniv Alberta, Mazankowski Alberta Heart Inst, Edmonton, AB, CanadaUniv Hosp Leicester Trust, Leicester Cardiovasc Biomed Res Unit, Natl Inst Hlth Res, Leicester, Leics, EnglandUniv Nottingham, Dept Cardiovasc Med, Nottingham NG7 2RD, EnglandLille Univ Hosp, Emergency Dept, Lille, FranceLille Univ Hosp, SAMU, Lille, FranceBoehringer Ingelheim GmbH & Co KG, Reims, FranceCtr Hosp Versailles, SAMU 78, Versailles, FranceMobile Intens Care Unit, Versailles, FranceFirst Moscow State Med Univ, Dept Internal Dis, Moscow, RussiaEmpresa Publ Emergencias Sanitarias, Almeria, SpainUniv Belgrade, Sch Med, Belgrade, SerbiaUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Med, Div Cardiol, São Paulo, BrazilUniv Athens, Dept Cardiol 3, GR-10679 Athens, GreeceBenjamin Franklin Med Ctr, Charite, Berlin, GermanyUniv Oslo, Ulleval Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Oslo, NorwayWilhelminenhosp, Dept Med Cardiol & Emergency Med 3, Vienna, AustriaPoznan Univ Med Sci, Dept Cardiol, Poznan, PolandAzienda Osped Univ Udine, Dept Cardiothorac Sci, Udine, ItalyBoehringer Ingelheim GmbH & Co KG, Biberach, GermanyBoehringer Ingelheim GmbH & Co KG, Basel, SwitzerlandKatholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Cardiovasc Sci, B-3000 Louvain, BelgiumKatholieke Univ Leuven, Interuniv Inst Biostat & Stat Bioinformat, B-3000 Louvain, BelgiumUniv Hasselt, Hasselt, BelgiumUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Med, Div Cardiol, São Paulo, BrazilWeb of Scienc

Holistic process models : a Bayesian predictive ensemble method for single and coupled unit operation models

The coupling of individual models in terms of end-to-end calculations for unit operations in manufacturing processes is a challenging task. We present a probability distribution-based approach for the combined outcomes of parametric and non-parametric models. With this so-called Bayesian predictive ensemble, the statistical moments such as mean value and standard deviation can be accurately computed without any further approximation. It is shown that the ensemble of different model predictions leads to an uninformed prior distribution, which can be transformed into a predictive posterior distribution using Bayesian inference and numerical Markov Chain Monte Carlo calculations. We demonstrate the advantages of our method using several numerical examples. Our approach is not restricted to certain unit operations, and can also be used for the more robust interpretation and assessment of model predictions in general

Solubilization of inclusion bodies : insights from explainable machine learning approaches

We present explainable machine learning approaches for gaining deeper insights into the solubilization processes of inclusion bodies. The machine learning model with the highest prediction accuracy for the protein yield is further evaluated with regard to Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values in terms of feature importance studies. Our results highlight an inverse fractional relationship between the protein yield and total protein concentration. Further correlations can also be observed for the dominant influences of the urea concentration and the underlying pH values. All findings are used to develop an analytical expression that is in reasonable agreement with experimental data. The resulting master curve highlights the benefits of explainable machine learning approaches for the detailed understanding of certain biopharmaceutical manufacturing steps.Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co. KGBoehringer Ingelheim RCV GmbH & Co K

Risk of intracerebral haemorrhage with alteplase after acute ischaemic stroke : a secondary analysis of an individual patient data meta-analysis

Background Randomised trials have shown that alteplase improves the odds of a good outcome when delivered within 4.5 h of acute ischaemic stroke. However, alteplase also increases the risk of intracerebral haemorrhage; we aimed to determine the proportional and absolute effects of alteplase on the risks of intracerebral haemorrhage, mortality, and functional impairment in different types of patients. Methods We used individual patient data from the Stroke Thrombolysis Trialists' (STT) meta-analysis of randomised trials of alteplase versus placebo (or untreated control) in patients with acute ischaemic stroke. We prespecified assessment of three classifications of intracerebral haemorrhage: type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage within 7 days; Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke Monitoring Study's (SITS-MOST) haemorrhage within 24-36 h (type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage with a deterioration of at least 4 points on National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS]); and fatal intracerebral haemorrhage within 7 days. We used logistic regression, stratified by trial, to model the log odds of intracerebral haemorrhage on allocation to alteplase, treatment delay, age, and stroke severity. We did exploratory analyses to assess mortality after intracerebral haemorrhage and examine the absolute risks of intracerebral haemorrhage in the context of functional outcome at 90-180 days. Findings Data were available from 6756 participants in the nine trials of intravenous alteplase versus control. Alteplase increased the odds of type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage (occurring in 231 [6.8%] of 3391 patients allocated alteplase vs 44 [1.3%] of 3365 patients allocated control; odds ratio [OR] 5.55 [95% CI 4.01-7.70]; absolute excess 5.5% [4.6-6.4]); of SITS-MOST haemorrhage (124 [3.7%] of 3391 vs 19 [0.6%] of 3365; OR 6.67 [4.11-10.84]; absolute excess 3.1% [2.4-3.8]); and of fatal intracerebral haemorrhage (91 [2.7%] of 3391 vs 13 [0.4%] of 3365; OR 7.14 [3.98-12.79]; absolute excess 2.3% [1.7-2.9]). However defined, the proportional increase in intracerebral haemorrhage was similar irrespective of treatment delay, age, or baseline stroke severity, but the absolute excess risk of intracerebral haemorrhage increased with increasing stroke severity: for SITS-MOST intracerebral haemorrhage the absolute excess risk ranged from 1.5% (0.8-2.6%) for strokes with NIHSS 0-4 to 3.7% (2.1-6.3%) for NIHSS 22 or more (p=0.0101). For patients treated within 4.5 h, the absolute increase in the proportion (6.8% [4.0% to 9.5%]) achieving a modified Rankin Scale of 0 or 1 (excellent outcome) exceeded the absolute increase in risk of fatal intracerebral haemorrhage (2.2% [1.5% to 3.0%]) and the increased risk of any death within 90 days (0.9% [-1.4% to 3.2%]). Interpretation Among patients given alteplase, the net outcome is predicted both by time to treatment (with faster time increasing the proportion achieving an excellent outcome) and stroke severity (with a more severe stroke increasing the absolute risk of intracerebral haemorrhage). Although, within 4.5 h of stroke, the probability of achieving an excellent outcome with alteplase treatment exceeds the risk of death, early treatment is especially important for patients with severe stroke.Peer reviewe

Asymptotic properties of the two one-sided <i>t</i>-tests – new insights and the Schuirmann-constant

Abstract The two one-sided t-tests (TOST) method is the most popular statistical equivalence test with many areas of application, i.e., in the pharmaceutical industry. Proper sample size calculation is needed in order to show equivalence with a certain power. Here, the crucial problem of choosing a suitable mean-difference in TOST sample size calculations is addressed. As an alternative concept, it is assumed that the mean-difference follows an a-priori distribution. Special interest is given to the uniform and some centered triangle a-priori distributions. Using a newly developed asymptotical theory a helpful analogy principle is found: every a-priori distribution corresponds to a point mean-difference, which we call its Schuirmann-constant. This constant does not depend on the standard deviation and aims to support the investigator in finding a well-considered mean-difference for proper sample size calculations in complex data situations. In addition to the proposed concept, we demonstrate that well-known sample size approximation formulas in the literature are in fact biased and state their unbiased corrections as well. Moreover, an R package is provided for a right away application of our newly developed concepts.</jats:p

Rationale, design, and baseline characteristics of a randomized, placebo-controlled cardiovascular outcome trial of empagliflozin (EMPA-REG OUTCOME (TM))

Background: Evidence concerning the importance of glucose lowering in the prevention of cardiovascular (CV) outcomes remains controversial. Given the multi-faceted pathogenesis of atherosclerosis in diabetes, it is likely that any intervention to mitigate this risk must address CV risk factors beyond glycemia alone. The SGLT-2 inhibitor empagliflozin improves glucose control, body weight and blood pressure when used as monotherapy or add-on to other antihyperglycemic agents in patients with type 2 diabetes. The aim of the ongoing EMPA-REG OUTCOME (TM) trial is to determine the long-term CV safety of empagliflozin, as well as investigating potential benefits on macro-/microvascular outcomes. Methods: Patients who were drug naive (HbA(1c) >= 7.0% and = 7.0% and = 691 confirmed primary outcome events have occurred, providing a power of 90% to yield an upper limit of the adjusted 95% CI for a hazard ratio of <1.3 with a one-sided a of 0.025, assuming equal risks between placebo and empagliflozin (both doses pooled). Hierarchical testing for superiority will follow for the primary outcome and key secondary outcomes (time to first occurrence of CV death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke or hospitalization for unstable angina pectoris) where non-inferiority is achieved. Results: Between Sept 2010 and April 2013, 592 clinical sites randomized and treated 7034 patients (41% from Europe, 20% from North America, and 19% from Asia). At baseline, the mean age was 63 +/- 9 years, BMI 30.6 +/- 5.3 kg/m(2), HbA1c 8.1 +/- 0.8%, and eGFR 74 +/- 21 ml/min/1.73 m(2). The study is expected to report in 2015. Discussion: EMPA REG OUTCOME (TM) will determine the CV safety of empagliflozin in a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes and high CV risk, with the potential to show cardioprotection