356 research outputs found

    Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends

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    Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the largest ever positive labour supply shock occurred, resulting from demographic trends and from the inclusion of China and eastern Europe into the World Trade Organization. This led to a shift in manufacturing to Asia, especially China; a stagnation in real wages; a collapse in the power of private sector trade unions; increasing inequality within countries, but less inequality between countries; deflationary pressures; and falling interest rates. This shock is now reversing. As the world ages, real interest rates will rise, inflation and wage growth will pick up and inequality will fall. What is the biggest challenge to our thesis? The hardest prior trend to reverse will be that of low interest rates, which have resulted in a huge and persistent debt overhang, apart from some deleveraging in advanced economy banks. Future problems may now intensify as the demographic structure worsens, growth slows, and there is little stomach for major inflation. Are we in a trap where the debt overhang enforces continuing low interest rates, and those low interest rates encourage yet more debt finance? There is no silver bullet, but we recommend policy measures to switch from debt to equity finance

    Distributions of three key parameters in different intervention cases and their percentage changes from Baseline scenarios (rural and urban), showing the Means (bar), Interquartile ranges (box) and 95% upper limits (dot) of (A) Home indoor B[<i>a</i>]Peq concentrations, sorted by PIF values; (B) Indoor/Outdoor ratios (I/O ratios) for home indoor B[<i>a</i>]Peq concentrations; and (C) Annual inhalation dose of B[<i>a</i>]Peq.

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    <p>Labels show the percentage reduction of the mean value of a parameter in each intervention case from the corresponding Baseline scenario. <b>Abbreviations:</b> B-r/B-u: Baseline, rural/urban; SF-r/SF-u: Smoking free, rural/urban; Ex-20-r/Ex-50-r/Ex-80-r: Exhaust while cooking, with 20%/50%/80% remaining indoors, rural; Ex-u: All households use exhaust hoods while cooking, urban; CF-Hf-r/CF-All-r: Clean fuel, Half/All households shift from solid fuel to gas for cooking, rural; IC-r/IC-u: Indoor cleaners are used to removed indoor particles, rural/urban; Atm-WHO-r/Atm-WHO-u: Atmospheric PAH concentrations are reduced to WHO guideline levels, rural/urban; Atm-Hf-u: Atmospheric PAH concentrations are halved from current levels, urban.</p

    The population attributable fractions (PAFs) (dark column) in the Baseline scenarios, the remaining PAFs (dark column) and their percentage reductions from the Baseline (line), and the potential impact fractions (PIFs) (light column) for different interventions, sorted by PIF values.

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    <p><b>Abbreviations:</b> B-r/B-u: Baseline, rural/urban; SF-r/SF-u: Smoking free, rural/urban; Ex-20-r/Ex-50-r/Ex-80-r: Exhaust while cooking, with 20%/50%/80% remaining indoors, rural; Ex-u: All households use exhaust hoods while cooking, urban; CF-Hf-r/CF-All-r: Clean fuel, Half/All households shift from solid fuel to gas for cooking, rural; IC-r/IC-u: Indoor cleaners are used to removed indoor particles, rural/urban; Atm-WHO-r/Atm-WHO-u: Atmospheric PAH concentrations are reduced to WHO guideline levels, rural/urban; Atm-Hf-u: Atmospheric PAH concentrations are halved from current levels, urban.</p

    Means (bar) and changes in means corresponding to a +/− standard deviation change in a certain parameter.

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    <p><b>Abbreviations:</b> B-r/B-u: Baseline, rural/urban; SF-r/SF-u: Smoking free, rural/urban; Ex-20-r/Ex-50-r/Ex-80-r: Exhaust while cooking, with 20%/50%/80% remaining indoors, rural; Ex-u: All households use exhaust hoods while cooking, urban; CF-Hf-r/CF-All-r: Clean fuel, Half/All households shift from solid fuel to gas for cooking, rural; IC-r/IC-u: Indoor cleaners are used to removed indoor particles, rural/urban; Atm-WHO-r/Atm-WHO-u: Atmospheric PAH concentrations are reduced to WHO guideline levels, rural/urban; Atm-Hf-u: Atmospheric PAH concentrations are halved from current levels, urban.</p

    Mean contributions of IN-in, OUT-in and OUT-out exposures for the Baseline scenarios and different intervention cases.

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    <p><b>Abbreviations:</b> B-r/B-u: Baseline, rural/urban; SF-r/SF-u: Smoking free, rural/urban; Ex-20-r/Ex-50-r/Ex-80-r: Exhaust while cooking, with 20%/50%/80% remaining indoors, rural; Ex-u: All households use exhaust hoods while cooking, urban; CF-Hf-r/CF-All-r: Clean fuel, Half/All households shift from solid fuel to gas for cooking, rural; IC-r/IC-u: Indoor cleaners are used to removed indoor particles, rural/urban; Atm-WHO-r/Atm-WHO-u: Atmospheric PAH concentrations are reduced to WHO guideline levels, rural/urban; Atm-Hf-u: Atmospheric PAH concentrations are halved from current levels, urban.</p

    Changes in Modeled PAF and PIF values with different URRs.

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    <p><i>Abbreviations</i>: B-r/B-u: Baseline, rural/urban; SF-r/SF-u: Smoking free, rural/urban; Ex-20-r/Ex-50-r/Ex-80-r: Exhaust while cooking, with 20%/50%/80% remaining indoors, rural; Ex-u: All households use exhaust hoods while cooking, urban; CF-Hf-r/CF-All-r: Clean fuel, Half/All households shift from solid fuel to gas for cooking, rural; IC-r/IC-u: Indoor cleaners are used to removed indoor particles, rural/urban; Atm-WHO-r/Atm-WHO-u: Atmospheric PAH concentrations are reduced to WHO guideline levels, rural/urban; Atm-Hf-u: Atmospheric PAH concentrations are halved from current levels, urban.</p

    Characteristics of the patterns of the three exposures in different intervention cases and the Baseline scenarios: (A) Rates of IN-in, OUT-in and OUT-out exposures being the dominating exposure pattern; and (B) Rates of IN-in, OUT-in and OUT-out exposures composing over half of the total exposure.

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    <p><b>Abbreviations:</b> B-r/B-u: Baseline, rural/urban; SF-r/SF-u: Smoking free, rural/urban; Ex-20-r/Ex-50-r/Ex-80-r: Exhaust while cooking, with 20%/50%/80% remaining indoors, rural; Ex-u: All households use exhaust hoods while cooking, urban; CF-Hf-r/CF-All-r: Clean fuel, Half/All households shift from solid fuel to gas for cooking, rural; IC-r/IC-u: Indoor cleaners are used to removed indoor particles, rural/urban; Atm-WHO-r/Atm-WHO-u: Atmospheric PAH concentrations are reduced to WHO guideline levels, rural/urban; Atm-Hf-u: Atmospheric PAH concentrations are halved from current levels, urban.</p

    Description of intervention cases in the study.

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    <p>Description of intervention cases in the study.</p

    Ranges of percentage change in annual inhalation dose with a standard deviation change in selected parameters with their baseline values and standard deviations: top five most sensitive parameters for either urban or rural sub-population.

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    <p><i><sup>a</sup></i>Outdoor concentration of some other PAH congeners could also bring percentage change of over 1% but were omitted for clarity, which included BaP, Nap, DBA, BbF, BkF, Acy in all seasons, and IP, Ant, BaA, Phe, Flu in winter. They all had smaller percentage influence than BaP in winter.</p><p><i><sup>b</sup></i>Quantity of coal used could also bring percentage change of over 1% but was omitted for clarity. It had smaller percentage influence than the quantity of wood and crop residues used.</p><p><i><sup>c</sup></i>SD stands for standard deviation, which is listed in brackets.</p><p><i><sup>d</sup></i>Values separated by “/” are percentage changes when subtracting or adding standard deviations to the baseline values.</p><p><i><sup>e</sup></i>Rankings of variables for urban and rural sub-populations respectively are listed in brackets; the table is sorted by the larger of the percentage changes in annual inhalation dose for urban and rural sub-populations.</p
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