The heterogeneity of world trade collapses

This paper analyses drivers of imports during the major world trade collapses of the Great Depression (1930s; 34 countries) and the Great Recession (1930s; 173 countries). The analysis deals with the first year of these episodes and develops a small empirical model that shows a significant impact of the development of GDP, the share of manufacturing goods in total imports and the political system. The analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity with respect to regional importance of these drivers

Sanctions against Iran - A preliminary economic assessment

This chapter seeks to contribute to the academic and policy debates on the merits of sanctions against Iran by providing an empirical analysis of their economic impact.1 It starts by taking a look at stylised facts2 in order to establish whether sanctions are effective – measured by the degree to which they have constrained the Iranian authorities’ ability to sustain their ambitions in the nuclear field as a result of the costs sanctions have inflicted on the country. Having established the conditions under which sanctions meet the criteria for success (as developed in chapter I), the rest of the chapter explores the results of an econometric model that not only tracks the economic mechanisms through which sanctions operate, but also analyses their spillover effects in the political realm

Where the financial and economic crisis does bite : Impact on the Least Developed Countries

This paper looks beyond the comparatively good performance of the large emerging economies that gave rise to the mainstream narrative of decoupling. I discuss the negative economic and social impacts of the financial and economic crisis on the Least Developed Countries that the mainstream narrative hides below the veil of well performing large countries. The negative macroeconomic consequences are directly observed in a reduction of the foreign contribution to capital formation in LDCs and a deceleration of the growth of per capita Gross Domestic Product. Official Development Aid does not offer recourse contracting in real terms in 2011 and falling short by US$ 51 billion over 2008-2011. The potential implications for human development are important. The paper indicates that Millennium Development Goals (especially in the fields of poverty, child mortality and universal primary education) will be more difficult to attain in the Least Developed Countries

Some economic historic perspectives on the 2009 world trade collapse

The paper puts the collapse of the world trade volume in 2009 into two historic perspectives. First, the paper analyses 18 major post-1980/pre-2007 financial crises and uses these observations as a basis to critically evaluate presently available projections for world trade. Second, the paper takes into account the developments in the world's trade volume and openness since 1880. Next to the direct impact of the present financial crisis on trade, potential second order effects on economic growth and international political relations are identified