Primary Zipped Folder of Outputs and Scripts

Zipped folder containing subfolders with model outputs and R scripts. Please see "Read Me.txt" for more information

Runs with 50% subsets

Zipped folder containing subset of model outputs where 50% of data were used in fitting. The purpose of these runs were to estimate model uncertainty. See "Read Me.txt" for more information

Changes in component climatic factors of Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) across 196 G200 ecoregions.

<p>A) Wet season ΔP; B) wet season Δσ_P; C) wet season RWAF; D) wet season Δσ_T; E) dry season ΔP; F) dry season Δσ_P; G) dry season RWAF; H) dry season Δσ_T. The calculation is based on differences in climate conditions between 1991–2010 and 2081–2100, generated from the ensemble of 62 GCM × GHG emission scenario combinations. The changing magnitude of each component climatic factor is indicated by the proportion of GCM × GHG emission scenario combinations with the absolute value of the corresponding integer “n” ≥2 (illustrated as the size of the symbol). The changing direction is indicated by the proportion of combinations where an increase or decrease is projected to occur (illustrated as the color of the symbol).</p

The spatial distributions of Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) across 196 G200 ecoregions.

<p>Based on differences in climate conditions between 1991−2010 and 2081−2100 generated from the ensemble of 62 GCM × GHG emission scenario combinations, the relative climate-change exposure of each G200 ecoregion is indicated by the multi-model mean RCCI (RCCI_mean, illustrated as the size of the symbol) and the proportion of GCM × GHG emission scenario combinations with RCCI ≥16 (Fr._RCCI≥16, illustrated as the color of the symbol).</p

Frequency distributions of observed and projected Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) across 196 G200 ecoregions.

<p>The observed RCCI (blue bars and solid line) is based on differences in climate conditions between 1961−1980 and 1991−2009, generated from Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS 3.1 datasets; the projected RCCI (red bars and solid line) is based on differences in climate conditions between 1991−2010 and 2081−2100, generated from the ensemble of 62 GCM × GHG emission scenario combinations. The grey vertical lines represent the 50^th and 80^th percentile of observed RCCI (i.e., RCCI = 12 and RCCI = 16), indicating moderate and pronounced climate change, respectively.</p

Appendix A

Appendix

Appendix B. Tables and figures providing a statistical representation of the observed flux tower carbon fluxes grouped by the plant function type of the site locations.

Tables and figures providing a statistical representation of the observed flux tower carbon fluxes grouped by the plant function type of the site locations

Appendix A. Tables and figures providing statistical support including representation of the differences between the regional and site level protocols and of model bias, correlation, and variability statistics.

Tables and figures providing statistical support including representation of the differences between the regional and site level protocols and of model bias, correlation, and variability statistics

Recent methane surges reveal heightened emissions from tropical inundated areas

Record breaking atmospheric methane growth rates were observed in 2020 and 2021 (15.2±0.5 and 17.8±0.5 parts per billion per year), the highest since the early 1980s. Here we use an ensemble of atmospheric inversions informed by surface or satellite methane observations to infer emission changes during these two years relative to 2019. Results show global methane emissions increased by 20.3±9.9 and 24.8±3.1 teragrams per year in 2020 and 2021, dominated by heightened emissions from tropical and boreal inundated areas, aligning with rising groundwater storage and regional warming. Current process-based wetland models fail to capture the tropical emission surges revealed by atmospheric inversions, likely due to inaccurate representation of wetland extents and associated methane emissions. Our findings underscore the critical role of tropical inundated areas in the recent methane emission surges and highlight the need to integrate multiple data streams and modeling tools for better constraining tropical wetland emissions.</p