Evidence of cycles in European commercial real estate markets and some hypotheses

In this paper, we seek to achieve four objectives. First, we provide some contextual material concerning the performance of the UK real estate market relative to stocks and bonds over a long period. Second, we provide UK – and some non-UK European - evidence of the tendency for property demand, supply, prices and returns to fluctuate around their long term trends or averages. Third, we briefly examine some hypotheses which suggest institutional contributions to property cycles in European markets. Fourth, we suggest some reasons why the future may not be as cyclical as the past

Unlisted Property Funds and the Emerging Property Markets

This paper sets out to describe the changing nature of global property investment, to provide background information regarding the nature of unlisted property funds and their managers and investors, and especially the role played by unlisted property funds in facilitating cross-border investing. In particular, it focuses on the development of unlisted funds as intermediary structures carrying institutional capital from developed to developing markets. It presents the results of new research by UK research firm Property Funds Research (PFR) and the University of Reading which explores the extent to which this new vehicle has been effective in delivering capital to emerging markets. The research relates the number of funds targetting particular countries and to population and GDP per capita. It finds that there is a very strong relationship between the popularity of a country for investment through this vehicle format and these independent variables. More interesting, perhaps, is the identification of outlier countries where the amount of investment is significantly less - or greater - than that predicted by population and GDP per capita.unlisted property funds, developing and emerging markets

Pricing the options inherent in leased commercial property: a UK case study

This paper sets out the findings of a group of research and development projects carried out at the Department of Real Estate & Planning at the University of Reading and at Oxford Property Systems over the period 1999 – 2003. The projects have several aims: these are to identify the fundamental drivers of the pricing of different lease terms in the UK property sector; to identify current and best market practice and uncover the main variations in lease terms; to identify key issues in pricing lease terms; and to develop a model for the pricing of rent under a variety of lease variations. From the landlord’s perspective, the main factors driving the required ‘compensation’ for a lease term amendment include expected rental volatility, expected probability of tenant vacation, and the expected costs of tenant vacation. These data are used in conjunction with simulation technology to reflect the options inherent in certain lease types to explore the required rent adjustment. The resulting cash flows have interesting qualities which illustrate the potential importance of option pricing in a non-complex and practical way

Understanding the barriers to real estate investment in developing economies

Baum (2008a) related the number of real estate funds investing in developing economies to simple economic and demographic variables, and showed that, while the popularity of markets was explained by population and GDP per capita, some countries receive more or less investment than the model predicted. Why is this? In this paper we undertake a literature review to identify the barriers which inhibit international real estate investment. We test our initial findings by questioning property investment professionals through semi-structured interviews. By doing this we were able to verify our list of barriers, identify those barriers which are most likely to affect real estate investors, and to indicate whether there are any real estate-specific variables that create barriers which have not received any academic attention. We show that distortions in international capital flows may be explained by a combination of these formal and informal barriers

The causes and effects of depreciation in office buildings: a ten year update

This paper publishes the results of the 1996 study, which repeats a cross-section analysis of around 125 City of London office buildings, and examines the longitudinal data contributed by a sample of 56 unrefurbished properties common to the 1986 and 1996 City of London datasets. An estimate of the average rate of rental and capital value depreciation is made; the effect of age is shown not to be straight-line; and the causes if depreciation are measured. The results are compared with the 1986 City of London findings

Sources of Alpha and Beta in Property Funds

This paper examines issues related to potential analytical performance systems for global property funds. These will include traditional attribution methods but will also cover the performance concepts of alpha and beta widely used in other asset classes. We look at issues including...what creates beta, and what drives alpha in real estate investment? How can it be measured and isolated? How do these concepts relate to traditional attribution systems? Can performance records and performance fees adequately distinguish between these drivers? In this paper we illustrate these issues by reference to a case study addressing the complete performance record of a single unlisted fund.unlisted property funds, performance attribution

Understanding the Barriers to Real Estate Investment in Developing Economies

In this paper we undertake a literature review to identify the barriers which inhibit international real estate investment.  We test our initial findings by questioning property investment professionals through semi-structured interviews.  By doing this we were able to verify our list of barriers, identify those barriers which are most likely to affect real estate investors, and to indicate whether there are any real estate-specific variables that create barriers which have not received any academic attention.  We show that distortions in international capital flows may be explained by a combination of these formal and informal barriers

Retention Rates, Re-investment and Depreciation in European Office Markets

The retention rate of a company has an impact on its earnings and dividend growth. Lease structures and performance measurement practice force real estate investment managers to adopt full distribution policies. Does this lead to lower income growth in real estate? This paper examines several European office markets across which the effective retention rates vary. It then compares depreciation rates across these markets. It is concluded that there is evidence of a relationship between retention and depreciation. Those markets with particularly inflexible lease structures exhibit low retention rates and higher levels of rental value depreciation. This poses interesting questions concerning the appropriate way to measure property performance across markets exhibiting significantly different retention rates and also raises important issues for global investors.

Retention rates, re-investment and depreciation in European office markets

The retention rate of a company has an impact on its earnings and dividend growth. Lease structures and performance measurement practice force real estate investment managers to adopt full distribution policies. Does this lead to lower income growth in real estate? This paper examines several European office markets across which the effective retention rates vary. It then compares depreciation rates across these markets. It is concluded that there is evidence of a relationship between retention and depreciation. Those markets with particularly inflexible lease structures exhibit low retention rates and higher levels of rental value depreciation. This poses interesting questions concerning the appropriate way to measure property performance across markets exhibiting significantly different retention rates and also raises important issues for global investors

PropTech 3.0: the future of real estate

Right now, thousands of extremely clever people backed by billions of dollars of often expert investment are working very hard to change the way real estate is traded, used and operated. It would be surprising, to say the least, if this burst of activity – let’s call it PropTech 2.0 - does not lead to some significant change. No doubt many PropTech firms will fail and a lot of money will be lost, but there will be some very successful survivors who will in time have a radical impact on what has been a slow-moving, conservative industry. How, and where, will this happen? Underlying this huge capitalist and social endeavour is a clash of generations. Many of the startups are driven by, and aimed at, millennials, but they often look to babyboomers for money - and sometimes for advice. PropTech 2.0 is also engineering a much-needed boost to property market diversity. Unlike many traditional real estate businesses, PropTech is attracting a diversified pool of talent that has representation from different regions of the world and entrepreneurs from a highly diverse career and education background. Given the difference in background between the establishment and the drivers of the PropTech wave, it is not surprising that there is some disagreement about the level of disruption that PropTech 2.0 will create. In this research we interviewed over 50 real estate professionals, entrepreneurs and capital providers. From one side, we heard that none of these startups know what they are doing and that young entrepreneurs misguidedly regard real estate as a sure thing. From the other, we heard that real estate people are not good at strategy and are determined to protect inefficient fee-earning practices. 2017 seems to mark a turning point. PropTech 2.0 has been building such mass and momentum that it will change the world. But real estate is a slow moving asset class, and the real estate industry is highly conservative. How will this play out? This, the Said Business School Oxford’s first real estate research report, maps this emerging sector and focusses in particular on the impact of tech change on the character of this enormous asset class