Lifetime Risk of Lower-Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease Defined by Ankle-Brachial Index in the United States.

Background There are no available lifetime risk estimates of lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD). Methods and Results Using data from 6 US community-based cohorts and the vital statistics, we estimated the prevalence and incidence of PAD, defined as an ankle-brachial index < 0.90, at each year of age from birth to 80 years for white, black, and Hispanic men and women. Then, we used Markov Monte Carlo simulations in a simulated cohort of 100 000 individuals to estimate lifetime risk of PAD. On the basis of odds ratios of PAD for traditional atherosclerotic risk factors (eg, diabetes mellitus and smoking), we developed a calculator providing residual lifetime risk of PAD. In an 80-year horizon, lifetime risks of PAD were 30.0% in black men and 27.6% in black women, but ≈19% in white men and women and ≈22% in Hispanic men and women. From another perspective, 9% of blacks were estimated to develop PAD by 60 years of age, while the same proportion was seen at ≈70 years for whites and Hispanics. The residual lifetime risk within the same race/ethnicity varied by 3.5- to 5-fold according to risk factors (eg, residual lifetime risk in 45-year-old black men was 19.9% when current smoking, diabetes mellitus, and history of cardiovascular disease were absent versus 70.4% when all were present). Conclusions In the United States, ≈30% of blacks are estimated to develop PAD during their lifetime, whereas the corresponding estimate is ≈20% for whites and Hispanics. The residual lifetime risk within the same race/ethnicity substantially varies according to traditional risk factors

Short-Term Prognostic Impact of Arterial Stiffness in Older Adults Without Prevalent Cardiovascular Disease

Arterial stiffness, represented as carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD). In older populations, however, this association seems attenuated. Moreover, the prognostic values of pulse wave velocity at different arterial segments and newer parameters like cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) remain unclear, especially in US older adults. In 3034 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants (66-90 years) without CVD, we examined the associations of 4 pulse wave velocity measures (cfPWV, heart-femoral, brachial-ankle, heart-ankle) and 2 new measures of arterial stiffness (CAVI and cardio-femoral vascular index derived from heart-ankle and heart-femoral, respectively) with incident CVD (coronary disease, stroke, and heart failure) and all-cause mortality. Over a median follow-up of 4.4 years, there were 168 incident CVD events and 244 deaths. Overall, stiffness measures did not show strong associations with CVD, except cfPWV, which demonstrated a J-shaped association even after adjusting for potential confounders (hazard ratio, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.08-3.09] in top quartile and 1.97 [1.14-3.39] in bottom quartile versus second bottom quartile). When each CVD was examined separately, heart failure was most robustly associated with higher cfPWV, and stroke was strongly associated with lower cfPWV. There were no significant associations with all-cause mortality. Among different measures of pulse wave velocity, cfPWV showed the strongest associations with CVD, especially heart failure, in older adults without CVD. Other pulse wave velocity measures had no strong associations. Our findings further support cfPWV as the index measure of arterial stiffness and the link of arterial stiffness to heart failure development but also suggest somewhat limited prognostic value of arterial stiffness in older adults overall

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Incident ESRD: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Carotid intima-media thickness has been reported to predict kidney function decline. However, whether carotid intima-media thickness is associated with a hard kidney end point, ESRD, has not been investigated

Decline in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate and Subsequent Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease and Mortality

Peer reviewedPostprin

Associations of Dietary Calcium and Phosphorus With Vascular and Valvular Calcification: The ARIC Study.

BackgroundHigh dietary calcium and phosphorus may accelerate vascular calcification, but epidemiological data are inconsistent. Most of those studies assessed diet at one point and have not been systematically evaluated.ObjectivesThe purpose of this study was to assess the associations of dietary calcium and phosphorus intakes in middle age with coronary artery and extra-coronary calcification at older age.MethodsWe studied 1,914 participants from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study (mean age 80.5 years) without coronary heart disease who underwent chest computed tomography scans at visit 7 (2018-2019) and completed a 66-item food frequency questionnaire at 2 earlier visits (visit 1 [1987-1989] and visit 3 [1993-1995]). Dietary calcium and phosphorus intakes were averaged between these 2 visits. Calcification was quantified by the Agatston score in coronary artery, ascending aorta, descending aorta, aortic valve ring, aortic valve, and mitral valve.ResultsDietary calcium intake was inversely associated with coronary artery and ascending aorta calcification, whereas the association was not significant for other measures of extra-coronary calcification. For example, the highest vs lowest quartile of calcium intake showed an adjusted OR of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.45-0.98) for coronary artery calcification (Agatston score ≥75th percentile). Dietary phosphorus intake demonstrated similar results, but the magnitude of the association was weaker than dietary calcium intake.ConclusionsDietary calcium and phosphorus intakes at middle age were not positively associated with vascular and valvular calcification at over 75 years old. Our findings did not support the link between a calcium or phosphorus-rich diet and vascular and valvular calcification

Socioeconomic Status and Incidence of Hospitalization With Lower‐Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

BACKGROUND: Compared to coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke, the relationship between low socioeconomic status (SES) and peripheral artery disease (PAD) is less well established. We examined the association between SES and incidence of hospitalization with PAD and explored whether this association can be explained by traditional cardiovascular risk factors and healthcare access. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 12 517 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (1987-1989) with no prior PAD were examined. Individual-level SES was assessed from household income (low <$12 000/year, medium$12 000 to $24 999/year, and high ≥$25 000/year [double to approximate to values in 2016]) and educational attainment (<high school, high school, and >high school), and area-level SES from area deprivation index (quintiles). During a median follow-up of 23.6 (Interquartile range 19.6-24.5) years, 433 participants had a hospitalization with PAD. In Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, the demographically adjusted hazard ratio was 2.42 (1.81-3.23) for low household income, 2.08 (1.60-2.69) for low educational attainment, and 2.18 (1.35-3.53) for most deprived neighborhoods, compared to their high-SES counterparts. After adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and heath care access, the associations were attenuated but remained significant, particularly for income and education. Results were consistent when stratified by race (P-values for interaction >0.2 for all SES parameters). CONCLUSIONS: Low individual- and area-level SES are strong predictors of hospitalization with PAD, in part due to increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and poor access to care in these groups. Additional risk factors may also need to be identified and acted on to eliminate SES disparities in PAD hospitalization

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI

Incorporating kidney disease measures into cardiovascular risk prediction: Development and validation in 9 million adults from 72 datasets

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) measures (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria) are frequently assessed in clinical practice and improve the prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet most major clinical guidelines do not have a standardized approach for incorporating these measures into CVD risk prediction. CKD Patch is a validated method to calibrate and improve the predicted risk from established equations according to CKD measures.Methods: Utilizing data from 4,143,535 adults from 35 datasets, we developed several CKD Patches incorporating eGFR and albuminuria, to enhance prediction of risk of atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) and CVD mortality by Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The risk enhancement by CKD Patch was determined by the deviation between individual CKD measures and the values expected from their traditional CVD risk factors and the hazard ratios for eGFR and albuminuria. We then validated this approach among 4,932,824 adults from 37 independent datasets, comparing the original PCE and SCORE equations (recalibrated in each dataset) to those with addition of CKD Patch.Findings: We confirmed the prediction improvement with the CKD Patch for CVD mortality beyond SCORE and ASCVD beyond PCE in validation datasets (Δc-statistic 0.027 [95% CI 0.018-0.036] and 0.010 [0.007-0.013] and categorical net reclassification improvement 0.080 [0.032-0.127] and 0.056 [0.044-0.067], respectively). The median (IQI) of the ratio of predicted risk for CVD mortality with CKD Patch vs. the original prediction with SCORE was 2.64 (1.89-3.40) in very high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 30-44 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria ≥30 mg/g), 1.86 (1.48-2.44) in high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 45-59 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), and 1.37 (1.14-1.69) in moderate risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 60-89 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), indicating considerable risk underestimation in CKD with SCORE. The corresponding estimates for ASCVD with PCE were 1.55 (1.37-1.81), 1.24 (1.10-1.54), and 1.21 (0.98-1.46).Interpretation: The CKD Patch can be used to quantitatively enhance ASCVD and CVD mortality risk prediction equations recommended in major US and European guidelines according to CKD measures, when available.Funding: US National Kidney Foundation and the NIDDK