Lessons from the controversy over statins - Authors' reply.

Virginia Barbour states in her letter that, with respect to the submission to the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) in October, 2014, by a group of senior doctors and scientists, she had “recused myself because of a potential conflict of interest”. However, that is not strictly accurate; Barbour only recused herself in September, 2015, 8 months after she had adjudicated on the submission in January, 2015

What are the risks of intracerebral haemorrhage due to alteplase after acute ischaemic stroke? Results from an individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised trials

Background: Randomised trials have shown that alteplase improves the odds of a good stroke outcome when delivered within 4.5 hours of acute ischaemic stroke. Alteplase also increases the risk of intracerebral haemorrhage, but the factors determining the proportional and absolute risks are uncertain. Methods: We used data from the Stroke Thrombolysis Trialists’ (STT) meta-analysis of individual patient data from 9 randomised trials of alteplase versus placebo (or open control) involving 6,756 patients. We pre-specified assessment of 3 definitions of intracerebral haemorrhage: type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage (PH-2) within 7 days; SITS-MOST haemorrhage within 24-36 hours (PH-2 with at least 4 point deterioration in NIHSS); and fatal intracerebral haemorrhage within 7 days. We used logistic regression, stratified by trial, to model the log odds of intracerebral haemorrhage on allocation to alteplase, treatment delay, age, and stroke severity. Exploratory analyses assessed mortality after intracerebral haemorrhage and examined the absolute risks of intracerebral haemorrhage in the context of functional outcome at 90-180 days. Findings: Alteplase increased the odds of PH-2 haemorrhage (231/3391 [6.8%] among patients allocated alteplase vs 44/3365 [1.3%] among patients allocated control; odds ratio [OR] 5.55, 95% CI 4.01–7.70; absolute excess 5.5% [95% CI 4.6% - 6.4%]); SITS-MOST haemorrhage (124/3391 [3.7%] vs 19/3365 [0.6%]; OR 6.67, 4.11-10.84; absolute excess 3.1% [2.4% - 3.8%]); and of fatal intracerebral haemorrhage (91/3391 [2.7%] vs 13/3365 [0.4%]; OR 7.14, 3.98–12.79; absolute excess 2.3% [1.7% - 2.9%]). However defined, the proportional increase in intracerebral haemorrhage was similar irrespective of treatment delay, age or baseline stroke severity, but the absolute excess risk of intracerebral haemorrhage increased with increasing stroke severity: for SITS-MOST intracerebral haemorrhage the absolute excess risk ranged from 1.5% (95% CI 0.8-2.6%) for strokes with NIHSS 0-4 to 3.7% (95% CI 2.1-6.3%) for NIHSS ≥22 (trend p=0.01). For those treated within 4.5 hours, the absolute increase in the proportion (6.8%) achieving a modified Rankin score of 0 or 1 (excellent outcome) exceeded the absolute increase in risk of fatal intracerebral haemorrhage (2.2%) and the increased risk of any death within 90 days (0.9%). Interpretation: Among patients treated with alteplase the net outcome is predicted both by time to treatment (with faster time increasing the proportion achieving an excellent outcome) and stroke severity (with more severe stroke increasing the absolute risk of intracerebral haemorrhage). Although, on average, within 4.5 hours of stroke, the probability of achieving an excellent outcome clearly exceeds the risk of death, early treatment is especially important for those with severe strokes

Effects of antiplatelet therapy after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage (RESTART): a randomised, open-label trial

Antiplatelet therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events for people with occlusive vascular disease, although it might increase the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. Patients surviving the commonest subtype of intracranial haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage, are at risk of both haemorrhagic and occlusive vascular events, but whether antiplatelet therapy can be used safely is unclear. We aimed to estimate the relative and absolute effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage and whether this risk might exceed any reduction of occlusive vascular events

The potential for improving cardio-renal outcomes by sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibition in people with chronic kidney disease: a rationale for the EMPA-KIDNEY study

Diabetes is a common cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD), but in aggregate, non-diabetic diseases account for a higher proportion of cases of CKD than diabetes in many parts of the world. Inhibition of the renin–angiotensin system reduces the risk of kidney disease progression and treatments that lower blood pressure (BP) or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduce cardiovascular (CV) risk in this population. Nevertheless, despite such interventions, considerable risks for kidney and CV complications remain. Recently, large placebo-controlled outcome trials have shown that sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors reduce the risk of CV disease (including CV death and hospitalization for heart failure) in people with type 2 diabetes who are at high risk of atherosclerotic disease, and these effects were largely independent of improvements in hyperglycaemia, BP and body weight. In the kidney, increased sodium delivery to the macula densa mediated by SGLT-2 inhibition has the potential to reduce intraglomerular pressure, which may explain why SGLT-2 inhibitors reduce albuminuria and appear to slow kidney function decline in people with diabetes. Importantly, in the trials completed to date, these benefits appeared to be maintained at lower levels of kidney function, despite attenuation of glycosuric effects, and did not appear to be dependent on ambient hyperglycaemia. There is therefore a rationale for studying the cardio-renal effects of SGLT-2 inhibition in people at risk of CV disease and hyperfiltration (i.e. those with substantially reduced nephron mass and/or albuminuria), irrespective of whether they have diabetes

Thromboxane biosynthesis and future events in diabetes: the ASCEND trial

Background and Aims Thromboxane (TX) A2, released by activated platelets, plays an important role in atherothrombosis. Urinary 11-dehydro-TXB2 (U-TXM), a stable metabolite reflecting the whole-body TXA2 biosynthesis, is reduced by ∼70% by daily low-dose aspirin. The U-TXM represents a non-invasive biomarker of in vivo platelet activation and is enhanced in patients with diabetes. This study assessed whether U-TXM is associated with the risk of future serious vascular events or revascularizations (SVE-R), major bleeding, or cancer in patients with diabetes. Methods The U-TXM was measured pre-randomization to aspirin or placebo in 5948 people with type 1 or 2 diabetes and no cardiovascular disease, in the ASCEND trial. Associations between log U-TXM and SVE-R (n = 618), major bleed (n = 206), and cancer (n = 700) during 6.6 years of follow-up were investigated by Cox regression; comparisons of these associations with the effects of randomization to aspirin were made. Results Higher U-TXM was associated with older age, female sex, current smoking, type 2 diabetes, higher body size, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio of ≥3 mg/mmol, and higher estimated glomerular filtration rate. After adjustment for these, U-TXM was marginally statistically significantly associated with SVE-R and major bleed but not cancer [hazard ratios per 1 SD higher log U-TXM (95% confidence interval): 1.09 (1.00–1.18), 1.16 (1.01–1.34), and 1.06 (0.98–1.14)]. The hazard ratio was similar to that implied by the clinical effects of randomization to aspirin for SVE-R but not for major bleed. Conclusions The U-TXM was log-linearly independently associated with SVE-R in diabetes. This is consistent with the involvement of platelet TXA2 in diabetic atherothrombosis

Conventional and Genetic Evidence on the Association between Adiposity and CKD

Background The size of any causal contribution of central and general adiposity to CKD risk and the underlying mechanism of mediation are unknown. Methods Data from 281,228 UK Biobank participants were used to estimate the relevance of waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index (BMI) to CKD prevalence. Conventional approaches used logistic regression. Genetic analyses used Mendelian randomization (MR) and data from 394 waist-to-hip ratio and 773 BMI-associated loci. Models assessed the role of known mediators (diabetes mellitus and BP) by adjusting for measured values (conventional analyses) or genetic associations of the selected loci (multivariable MR). Results Evidence of CKD was found in 18,034 (6.4%) participants. Each 0.06 higher measured waist-to-hip ratio and each 5-kg/m2 increase in BMI were associated with 69% (odds ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.64 to 1.74) and 58% (1.58; 1.55 to 1.62) higher odds of CKD, respectively. In analogous MR analyses, each 0.06–genetically-predicted higher waist-to-hip ratio was associated with a 29% (1.29; 1.20 to 1.38) increased odds of CKD, and each 5-kg/m2 genetically-predicted higher BMI was associated with a 49% (1.49; 1.39 to 1.59) increased odds. After adjusting for diabetes and measured BP, chi-squared values for associations for waist-to-hip ratio and BMI fell by 56%. In contrast, mediator adjustment using multivariable MR found 83% and 69% reductions in chi-squared values for genetically-predicted waist-to-hip ratio and BMI models, respectively. Conclusions Genetic analyses suggest that conventional associations between central and general adiposity with CKD are largely causal. However, conventional approaches underestimate mediating roles of diabetes, BP, and their correlates. Genetic approaches suggest these mediators explain most of adiposity-CKD–associated risk.</p

Use of Coronary Computed Tomographic Angiography to guide management of patients with coronary disease

Background In a prospective, multicenter, randomized controlled trial, 4,146 patients were randomized to receive standard care or standard care plus coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). Objectives The purpose of this study was to explore the consequences of CCTA-assisted diagnosis on invasive coronary angiography, preventive treatments, and clinical outcomes. Methods In post hoc analyses, we assessed changes in invasive coronary angiography, preventive treatments, and clinical outcomes using national electronic health records. Results Despite similar overall rates (409 vs. 401; p = 0.451), invasive angiography was less likely to demonstrate normal coronary arteries (20 vs. 56; hazard ratios [HRs]: 0.39 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.23 to 0.68]; p < 0.001) but more likely to show obstructive coronary artery disease (283 vs. 230; HR: 1.29 [95% CI: 1.08 to 1.55]; p = 0.005) in those allocated to CCTA. More preventive therapies (283 vs. 74; HR: 4.03 [95% CI: 3.12 to 5.20]; p < 0.001) were initiated after CCTA, with each drug commencing at a median of 48 to 52 days after clinic attendance. From the median time for preventive therapy initiation (50 days), fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction was halved in patients allocated to CCTA compared with those assigned to standard care (17 vs. 34; HR: 0.50 [95% CI: 0.28 to 0.88]; p = 0.020). Cumulative 6-month costs were slightly higher with CCTA: difference $462 (95$303 to $621). Conclusions In patients with suspected angina due to coronary heart disease, CCTA leads to more appropriate use of invasive angiography and alterations in preventive therapies that were associated with a halving of fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction. (Scottish COmputed Tomography of the HEART Trial [SCOT-HEART]; NCT01149590

Relationship between clinic and ambulatory blood pressure and mortality: an observational cohort study in 59 124 patients

BACKGROUND: Ambulatory blood pressure provides a more comprehensive assessment than clinic blood pressure, and has been reported to better predict health outcomes than clinic or home pressure. We aimed to examine associations of clinic and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a large cohort of primary care patients referred for assessment of hypertension. METHODS: We did an observational cohort study using clinic and ambulatory blood pressure data obtained from March 1, 2004, to Dec 31, 2014, from the Spanish Ambulatory Blood Pressure Registry. This registry included patients from 223 primary care centres from the Spanish National Health System in all 17 regions of Spain. Mortality data (date and cause) were ascertained by a computerised search of the vital registry of the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. Complete data were available for age, sex, all blood pressure measures, and BMI. For each study participant, follow-up was from the date of their recruitment to the date of death or Dec 31, 2019, whichever occurred first. Cox models were used to estimate associations between usual clinic or ambulatory blood pressure and mortality, adjusted for confounders and additionally for alternative measures of blood pressure. For each measure of blood pressure, we created five groups (ie, fifths) defined by quintiles of that measure among those who subsequently died. FINDINGS: During a median follow-up of 9·7 years, 7174 (12·1%) of 59 124 patients died, including 2361 (4·0%) from cardiovascular causes. J-shaped associations were observed for several blood pressure measures. Among the top four baseline-defined fifths, 24-h systolic blood pressure was more strongly associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] 1·41 per 1 - SD increment [95% CI 1·36-1·47]) than clinic systolic blood pressure (1·18 [1·13-1·23]). After adjustment for clinic blood pressure, 24-h blood pressure remained strongly associated with all-cause deaths (HR 1·43 [95% CI 1·37-1·49]), but the association between clinic blood pressure and all-cause death was attenuated when adjusted for 24-h blood pressure (1·04 [1·00-1·09]). Compared with the informativeness of clinic systolic blood pressure (100%), night-time systolic blood pressure was most informative about risk of all-cause death (591%) and cardiovascular death (604%). Relative to blood pressure within the normal range, elevated all-cause mortality risks were observed for masked hypertension (HR 1·24 [95% CI 1·12-1·37]) and sustained hypertension (1·24 [1·15-1·32]), but not white-coat hypertension, and elevated cardiovascular mortality risks were observed for masked hypertension (1·37 [1·15-1·63]) and sustained hypertension (1·38 [1·22-1·55]), but not white-coat hypertension. INTERPRETATION: Ambulatory blood pressure, particularly night-time blood pressure, was more informative about the risk of all-cause death and cardiovascular death than clinic blood pressure. FUNDING: Spanish Society of Hypertension, Lacer Laboratories, UK Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, National Institute for Health and Care Research Biomedical Research Centres (Oxford and University College London Hospitals), and British Heart Foundation Centre for Research Excellence

Frailty, multimorbidity and polypharmacy: exploratory analyses of the effects of empagliflozin from the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

Background: Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors are recommended treatment for adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but uncertainty exists regarding their use in patients with frailty and/or multimorbidity, among whom polypharmacy is common. We derived a multivariable logistic regression model to predict hospitalization (reflecting frailty) and assessed empagliflozin’s risk-benefit profile in a post-hoc analysis of the double-blind, placebocontrolled EMPA-KIDNEY trial. Methods: The EMPA-KIDNEY trial randomized 6609 patients with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≥20<45 mL/min/1.73m2 , or ≥45<90 mL/min/1.73m2 with urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥200 mg/g) to receive either empagliflozin 10 mg daily or matching placebo and followed for two years (median). Additional characteristics analysed in subgroups were multimorbidity, polypharmacy and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) at baseline. Cox regression analyses were performed with subgroups defined by approximate thirds of each variable. Results: The strongest predictors of hospitalization were N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide, poor mobility and diabetes; then eGFR and other comorbidities. Empagliflozin was generally well-tolerated independent of predicted risk of hospitalization. In relative terms, allocation to empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death by 28% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.82); and all-cause hospitalization by 14% (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.95); with broadly consistent effects across subgroups of predicted risk of hospitalization, multimorbidity, polypharmacy or HRQoL. In absolute terms, the estimated benefits of empagliflozin were greater in those at highest predicted risk of hospitalization (reflecting frailty) and outweighed potential serious harms. Conclusions: These findings support the use of SGLT2 inhibitors in CKD, irrespective of frailty, multimorbidity or polypharmacy