Technical efficiency and productivity of public district hospitals in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa

Background: District hospitals (DHs) constitute a significant proportion of public hospitals and consume a more substantial percentage of the government’s total hospital budget. With the level of resources disbursed to DHs, it is essential to ensure efficient allocation and utilization. Hence, this study set out to assess the technical efficiency and productivity of public DHs in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Methods: Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Malmquist total factor productivity (MTFP) were used to assess technical efficiency, identify adjustments required to make inefficient facilities more efficient, and determine overall productivity growth. Input data such as medical personnel and output information such as outpatient visits were retrieved from the databases of the district health information system (DHIS), and personnel salary systems (PERSAL) for three consecutive financial years (2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17). A total of 38 district hospitals were included in the study. Results: The proportion of technically efficient facilities according to constant return to scale (CRS) were 12 (31.6%), 16 (42.1%) and 14 (36.8%) in 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, while according to the variable return to scale (VRS) technically efficient facilities were 22 (57.9%), 19 (50.0) and 21 (55.2%), respectively, for the three consecutive years. On average, the total productivity of DHs increased by 4.8 percent over the three years, which is attributed majorly to technical growth of 6.9 percent. Conclusion: This study showed that a significant proportion of the district hospitals were technically inefficiency. Also, steps that could enable more efficient use of healthcare resources to yield optimal health service delivery were recommended

Social Distancing, Lockdown Obligatory, and Response Satisfaction During COVID-19 Pandemic: Perception of Nigerian Social Media Users

Background: Pandemics are challenging for clinical and public health agencies and policymakers because of the scientific and medical uncertainty that accompanies novel viruses like COVID-19 makes an increase of morbidity and mortality prominent. Consequently, there is a need to evaluate the public perception of social distancing, lockdown obligatory, and response satisfactory during the pandemic. Methods: This cross-sectional survey used an anonymous online google based questionnaire to collect data from respondents via social media platforms. The online survey was conducted among social media users from 1st to 30th April 2020. A snowball sampling technique was employed to recruit respondents for the survey. A total of 1,131 respondents responded across the country. Results: Nine out of every ten respondents believed that social distancing is an effective measure to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Also, 8 out of every ten respondents agreed with the lockdown measures. However, just 36.8% think their government is doing enough to stop the outbreak, and only 25% of the respondents were satisfied with the country’s response to the worldwide epidemic. The age of respondents was found to be significantly associated with satisfaction with emergency response during pandemics. Conclusion: It could be concluded that Nigerian public accepted social distancing as an effective way of curbing the spread of COVID-19 and general acceptance on lockdown obligatory; however, more than half of respondents expressed non-satisfactory with government and other agencies responses during the pandemics

Socio-demographic predictors of adherence to coronavirus disease prescribed recommendations and lockdown psychological impacts: Perspectives of Nigerian social media users

Background The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is a highly infectious viral disease that has spread to over one hundred and eight countries, including Nigeria. Governments across the globe have been implementing preventive measures towards curbing the spread of the virus. These measures have continued to interfere with the general lifestyle of the people. Hence, this study was aimed at examining the socio-demographic predictors of adherence to prescribed recommendations and the psychological impacts of COVID-19 pandemic lockdown among Nigerian social media users. Methods This research implemented a cross-sectional survey using an online Google-based questionnaire to elicit required information from potential respondents via social media platforms. An external link to the questionnaire was shared among Nigerian social media users between for a month, and a total of 1,131 respondents participated in the survey. The explanatory and outcome variables were displayed by frequency and percentage distribution, while chi-square analysis was used to show the relationship between the explanatory and outcome variables at a 5% level of significance. Results The study showed that 99% of the respondents reported following some of the prescribed recommendations; however, only 40.4% of the respondents followed all the recommendations. More than three fifths (63.4%) of the respondents also reported that they feel stressed during the lockdown. All the selected socio-demographic characteristics were not predictors of the outcome variables as p>0.05 except the professional background of the respondents (P<0.05). Conclusion We concluded that most Nigerian social media users were complaining to the prescribed recommendations and that the younger age group, female respondents and respondents who are more educated had a higher proportion of reporting psychological impacts of lockdown

Socio-demographic factors Influencing Postpartum care joint decision making and use of Family Planning among the young population in South-West, Nigeria

Background: Population explosion continues to be a serious concern across the globe. The current world population estimate of 7.7 billion people is expected to increase to 9.7 billion by the year 2050. Despite the projected growth, recent reports have shown that approximately, six million infants died before their first birthday, and thirty-five women die per hour as a result of pregnancy and childbirth related complications. Postpartum Family Planning (PPFP) has been recommended to help protect women from unplanned pregnancies within the first six weeks of giving birth. An effective postpartum contraceptive utilization in developing countries could reduce the rate of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. Thus, this study was aimed at examining the socio-demographic factors that influence postpartum care joint decision making and the use of family planning among the young female population in South West, Nigeria. Methods: The study involved the use of primary dataset collected among young mothers aged 15-30 years in South West, Nigeria, in 2019. Inclusion criteria including having a child in the year preceding the survey. One hundred forty respondents were interviewed in three senatorial districts to give 420 respondents, and the data collected were analyzed adopting univariate, bivariate, and multivariate measures. Results: The findings from the study showed that respondents across all the age groups were more likely to jointly agree with their spouse/partner concerning the use of family planning, and this was significant for the age group 25-29 years. Also, there was a significant association between family planning usage and a healthy, meaningful relationship between joint decision, and communication on the use of family planning after delivery (P-value < 0.05). Conclusion: This study revealed the importance of male partners in couple’s decision towards uptake of family planning services. It recommends that focused community orientation, and awareness strategies, including reproductive health education for couples, should be implemented at community grass root level

Socio-Demographic Predictors of Adherence to 2019 Coronavirus Prescribed Recommendations and Lockdown Psychological Impacts: Perspectives of Nigerian Social Media Users

Background The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is a highly infectious viral disease that has spread to over one hundred and eight countries, including Nigeria. Governments across the globe have been implementing preventive measures towards curbing the spread and impact of the virus. These measures have continued to interfere with the general lifestyle of the people. Hence, this study was aimed at examining the socio-demographic predictors of adherence to prescribed recommendations and the psychological impacts of COVID-19 pandemic lockdown among Nigerian social media users. Methods: This research implemented a cross-sectional survey using an online Google-based questionnaire to elicit required information from potential respondents via social media channels such as WhatsApp, Twitter, Instagram, Telegram and Facebook. An external link to the questionnaire was shared among Nigerian social media users between 1st and 31st April 2020, and a total of 1,131 respondents participated in the survey. The explanatory and outcome variables were displayed by frequency and percentage distribution while chi-square analysis was used to show the relationship between the explanatory and outcome variables at 5% level of significant. Results The study showed that 99% of the respondents reported to have been following some of the prescribed recommendations, however, only 40.4% of the respondents followed all the recommendations. More than three fifths (63.4%) of the respondents also reported having experienced stressed during the lockdown. Only respondents’ professional background (p0.05 Conclusion We concluded that majority of Nigerian social media users were complying to the prescribed recommendations and that younger age group, female respondents and respondents who are more educated had higher proportion of psychological impacts of lockdown, while the medical/scientific background is the only socio-demographic predictor of psychological impacts of COVID-19 lockdown

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

Background Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four ‘colliding epidemics’ of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019. Methods We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990–2007 and 2007–2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance. Results Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990–2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007–2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces. Conclusions Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

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Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view - and subsequent provision - of quality health care for all populations

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator