Serum IL-33, a new marker predicting response to rituximab in rheumatoid arthritis

Background. Recent works have suggested a possible link between IL-33 and B-cell biology. We aimed to study in different cohorts and with an accurate ELISA assay the possible association between serum IL-33 detection and response to rituximab (RTX) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Method. Serum IL-33, rheumatoid factor (RF), anti-citrullinated cyclic peptide antibodies (anti-CCP), high serum IgG level were assessed in 111 RA patients receiving a first course of 2 grams RTX (cohort 1) in an observational study and in 74 RA patients treated with the same schedule in routine care (cohort 2). Uni and multivariate analyzes identified factors associated with a European League Against Rheumatism response at 24 weeks. Results. At week 24, 84/111 (76%) and 54/74 (73%) patients reached EULAR response in the cohorts 1 and 2, respectively. Serum IL-33 was detectable in only 33,5% of the patients. In the combined cohorts, presence of RF or anti-CCP (OR 3.27, 95%CI [1.13-9.46]; p=0.03), high serum IgG (OR 2.32, 95%CI [1.01-5.33]; p=0.048) and detectable serum IL-33 (OR 2.40, 95%CI [1.01-5.72]; p=0.047) were all associated with RTX response in multivariate analysis. Combination of these 3 factors increased the likelihood to response to RTX. When serum IL-33 detection was added to seropositivity and serum IgG level, 100% of the patients with the 3 risk factors (corresponding to 9% of the population) responded to RTX (OR versus patients with none of the 3 risk factors = 29.61; 95% CI [1.30-674.79] p=0.034) Conclusion. Detectable serum IL-33 may predict clinical response to RTX, independently of and synergistically with autoantibodies and serum IgG level

Effect of waste materials on acoustical properties of semi-dense asphalt mixtures

Among the urban societal burdens rolling noise generation from tire pavement interaction and urban waste stand apart. Many urban waste materials can be used in pavements with comparable mechanical performance. Noise-related pavement characteristics such as porosity, sound absorption and surface texture, were measured for semi-dense low noise pavement mixtures using urban waste materials namely: recycled concrete aggregates, crumb rubber, polyethylene terephthalate and polyethylene. The results show that the use of these materials is a viable sustainable option for low noise pavements, however that may affect the noise reduction properties. With values around 0.2 at 1000 Hz, the sound absorption of all the mixtures is relatively low and the use of mean profile depth (MPD) alone is not enough to characterize the noise reduction properties. Surface texture was altered in different degrees depending on the waste material used. The results presented can aid in policy pertaining to noise abatement and waste reduction

Effects of antioxidant supplementations on oxidative stress in rheumatoid arthritis patients

Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) play an important role in the pathogenesis of Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) exposing these patients to oxidative stress. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effects of antioxidant supplementations on oxidative status and disease activity in RA patients. Forty nine RA patients (41 females, 8 males, age 48.78±12.54 years) participated in this randomized clinical trial. Patients were randomly divided into two groups to received antioxidant supplementations in combined with conventional treatment (Group I, n: 24) or conventional treatment only (group II, n: 25) for 12 weeks. Plasma concentration of malondialdehyde (MDA) and Total Antioxidant Capacity (TAC) were measured at the beginning of the study and after intervention in both groups. Disease activity was also measured before and after intervention using Rheumatoid Arthritis Disease Activity Index (RADAI). Supplementation with antioxidant yielded significantly decreased in plasma MDA concentration (p<0.0001) and disease activity (p<0.0001) and statistically increased in TAC levels (p<0.0001) in group I in comparison to group II after 12 weeks. This study indicates that antioxidant supplementations may play an important role in improving oxidative stress and decreasing disease activity in these patients. © 2010 Asian Network for Scientific Information

Tourism Firms’ Vulnerability to Risk: The Role of Organizational Slack in Performance and Failure

This study explores the influence of political risk on firms in the tourism industry. It addresses a research gap regarding the impact of political risk on firm-level performance and failure and uncovers the role of organizational slack in this relationship. Firm-level political risk is estimated from 2002 to 2019 financial data for firms across six tourism sectors in a developed economy, the United States. Such risk is found to be significantly associated with firm performance and business failure. From the perspectives of the resource-based view and the threat-rigidity hypothesis, the results support the moderating effects of absorbed and unabsorbed slack on links between risk, performance, and business failure. Given that the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the tourism industry’s vulnerability, this study will be of interest to tourism firms seeking to improve business sustainability and resilience

Refurbishment of public housing villas in the United Arab Emirates (UAE): energy and economic impact

© 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. This study aims at assessing the technical and economic benefits of refurbishing existing public housing villas in the UAE. Four representative federal public housing villas built between 1980s and 2010s were modeled and analyzed. The Integrated Environmental Solutions-Virtual Environment (IES-VE) energy modeling software was used to estimate the energy consumption and savings due to different refurbishment configurations applied to the villas. The refurbishment technical configurations were based on the UAE’s Estidama green buildings sustainability assessment system. The refurbishment configurations include upgrading three elements: the wall and roof insulation as well as replacing the glazing. The annual electricity savings results indicated that the most cost-efficient refurbishment strategy is upgrading of wall insulation (savings up to 20.8 %) followed by upgrading the roof’s insulation (savings up to 11.6 %) and lastly replacing the glazing (savings up to 3.2 %). When all three elements were refurbished simultaneously, savings up to 36.7 % were achieved (villa model 670). The savings translated to CO2 emission reduction of 22.6 t/year. The simple and discounted payback periods for the different configurations tested ranged between 8 and 28 and 10 and 50 years, respectively

Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies. Methods: In this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework. Findings: Global age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9–29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76–6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference scenario, smoking prevalence declined by 25·9% (25·2–26·6) among males, and 30·0% (26·1–32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this scenario, we forecast a cumulative 29·3 billion (95% UI 26·8–32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion (20·1–24·6) YLLs among females over this period. Life expectancy at birth under this scenario would increase from 73·6 years (95% UI 72·8–74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years (75·9–80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023 scenario, we forecast 2·04 billion (95% UI 1·90–2·21) fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference scenario, and life expectancy at birth would increase to 77·6 years (95% UI 75·1–79·6) among males and 81·0 years (78·5–83·1) among females. Under our Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million (675–808) and 141 million (131–154) cumulative YLLs would be avoided among males and females, respectively. Life expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 years (95% UI 74·6–79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3–82·9) among females. Interpretation: Existing tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination. Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial in avoiding additional smoking-attributable burden in the coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the past three decades are not lost. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990–2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional publications that provided more detailed estimates for several WHO regions by country. To date, there have been no studies that produce comprehensive estimates of AMR burden across locations that encompass historical trends and future forecasts. METHODS: We estimated all-age and age-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen–drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We collected and used multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, microbiology data, literature studies, single drug resistance profiles, pharmaceutical sales, antibiotic use surveys, mortality surveillance, linkage data, outpatient and inpatient insurance claims data, and previously published data, covering 520 million individual records or isolates and 19 513 study-location-years. We used statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including those with no data. Our approach leverages the estimation of five broad component quantities: the number of deaths involving sepsis; the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome; the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen; the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest; and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden attributable to and associated with AMR, which we define based on two counterfactuals; respectively, an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections are replaced by drug-susceptible infections, and an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection. Additionally, we produced global and regional forecasts of AMR burden until 2050 for three scenarios: a reference scenario that is a probabilistic forecast of the most likely future; a Gram-negative drug scenario that assumes future drug development that targets Gram-negative pathogens; and a better care scenario that assumes future improvements in health-care quality and access to appropriate antimicrobials. We present final estimates aggregated to the global, super-regional, and regional level. FINDINGS: In 2021, we estimated 4·71 million (95% UI 4·23–5·19) deaths were associated with bacterial AMR, including 1·14 million (1·00–1·28) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. Trends in AMR mortality over the past 31 years varied substantially by age and location. From 1990 to 2021, deaths from AMR decreased by more than 50% among children younger than 5 years yet increased by over 80% for adults 70 years and older. AMR mortality decreased for children younger than 5 years in all super-regions, whereas AMR mortality in people 5 years and older increased in all super-regions. For both deaths associated with and deaths attributable to AMR, meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus increased the most globally (from 261 000 associated deaths [95% UI 150 000–372 000] and 57 200 attributable deaths [34 100–80 300] in 1990, to 550 000 associated deaths [500 000–600 000] and 130 000 attributable deaths [113 000–146 000] in 2021). Among Gram-negative bacteria, resistance to carbapenems increased more than any other antibiotic class, rising from 619 000 associated deaths (405 000–834 000) in 1990, to 1·03 million associated deaths (909 000–1·16 million) in 2021, and from 127 000 attributable deaths (82 100–171 000) in 1990, to 216 000 (168 000–264 000) attributable deaths in 2021. There was a notable decrease in non-COVID-related infectious disease in 2020 and 2021. Our forecasts show that an estimated 1·91 million (1·56–2·26) deaths attributable to AMR and 8·22 million (6·85–9·65) deaths associated with AMR could occur globally in 2050. Super-regions with the highest all-age AMR mortality rate in 2050 are forecasted to be south Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Increases in deaths attributable to AMR will be largest among those 70 years and older (65·9% [61·2–69·8] of all-age deaths attributable to AMR in 2050). In stark contrast to the strong increase in number of deaths due to AMR of 69·6% (51·5–89·2) from 2022 to 2050, the number of DALYs showed a much smaller increase of 9·4% (–6·9 to 29·0) to 46·5 million (37·7 to 57·3) in 2050. Under the better care scenario, across all age groups, 92·0 million deaths (82·8–102·0) could be cumulatively averted between 2025 and 2050, through better care of severe infections and improved access to antibiotics, and under the Gram-negative drug scenario, 11·1 million AMR deaths (9·08–13·2) could be averted through the development of a Gram-negative drug pipeline to prevent AMR deaths. INTERPRETATION: This study presents the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR from 1990 to 2021, with results forecasted until 2050. Evaluating changing trends in AMR mortality across time and location is necessary to understand how this important global health threat is developing and prepares us to make informed decisions regarding interventions. Our findings show the importance of infection prevention, as shown by the reduction of AMR deaths in those younger than 5 years. Simultaneously, our results underscore the concerning trend of AMR burden among those older than 70 years, alongside a rapidly ageing global community. The opposing trends in the burden of AMR deaths between younger and older individuals explains the moderate future increase in global number of DALYs versus number of deaths. Given the high variability of AMR burden by location and age, it is important that interventions combine infection prevention, vaccination, minimisation of inappropriate antibiotic use in farming and humans, and research into new antibiotics to mitigate the number of AMR deaths that are forecasted for 2050. FUNDING: UK Department of Health and Social Care's Fleming Fund using UK aid, and the Wellcome Trust

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category. Findings: In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000–277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11–2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400–145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947–1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6–8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8–3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1–19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7–14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2–14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5–81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4–78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1–67·3]). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by cataract: a meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020

Background: To estimate global and regional trends from 2000 to 2020 of the number of persons visually impaired by cataract and their proportion of the total number of vision-impaired individuals. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of published population studies and gray literature from 2000 to 2020 was carried out to estimate global and regional trends. We developed prevalence estimates based on modeled distance visual impairment and blindness due to cataract, producing location-, year-, age-, and sex-specific estimates of moderate to severe vision impairment (MSVI presenting visual acuity &lt;6/18, ≥3/60) and blindness (presenting visual acuity &lt;3/60). Estimates are age-standardized using the GBD standard population. Results: In 2020, among overall (all ages) 43.3 million blind and 295 million with MSVI, 17.0 million (39.6%) people were blind and 83.5 million (28.3%) had MSVI due to cataract blind 60% female, MSVI 59% female. From 1990 to 2020, the count of persons blind (MSVI) due to cataract increased by 29.7%(93.1%) whereas the age-standardized global prevalence of cataract-related blindness improved by −27.5% and MSVI increased by 7.2%. The contribution of cataract to the age-standardized prevalence of blindness exceeded the global figure only in South Asia (62.9%) and Southeast Asia and Oceania (47.9%). Conclusions: The number of people blind and with MSVI due to cataract has risen over the past 30 years, despite a decrease in the age-standardized prevalence of cataract. This indicates that cataract treatment programs have been beneficial, but population growth and aging have outpaced their impact. Growing numbers of cataract blind indicate that more, better-directed, resources are needed to increase global capacity for cataract surgery

Global pattern, trend, and cross-country inequality of early musculoskeletal disorders from 1990 to 2019, with projection from 2020 to 2050

Background: This study aims to estimate the burden, trends, forecasts, and disparities of early musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders among individuals ages 15 to 39 years. Methods: The global prevalence, years lived with disabilities (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), projection, and inequality were estimated for early MSK diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), osteoarthritis (OA), low back pain (LBP), neck pain (NP), gout, and other MSK diseases (OMSKDs). Findings: More adolescents and young adults were expected to develop MSK disorders by 2050. Across five age groups, the rates of prevalence, YLDs, and DALYs for RA, NP, LBP, gout, and OMSKDs sharply increased from ages 15–19 to 35–39; however, these were negligible for OA before age 30 but increased notably at ages 30–34, rising at least 6-fold by 35–39. The disease burden of gout, LBP, and OA attributable to high BMI and gout attributable to kidney dysfunction increased, while the contribution of smoking to LBP and RA and occupational ergonomic factors to LBP decreased. Between 1990 and 2019, the slope index of inequality increased for six MSK disorders, and the relative concentration index increased for gout, NP, OA, and OMSKDs but decreased for LBP and RA. Conclusions: Multilevel interventions should be initiated to prevent disease burden related to RA, NP, LBP, gout, and OMSKDs among individuals ages 15–19 and to OA among individuals ages 30–34 to tightly control high BMI and kidney dysfunction. Funding: The Global Burden of Disease study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project is funded by the Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38)