Additional file 1: of Regulating health and nutrition claims in the UK using a nutrient profile model: an explorative modelled health impact assessment

Supplementary information including further background information, description of model scenarios, and results. (PDF 855 kb

Fig 4 -

Validation of the model by comparison of modelled estimates of prevalence of ever having had MI with external estimates from the Health Survey for England 2017 for men (A) and women (B). Black vertical bars represent 95% confidence intervals for the prevalence of ever having had MI for 1998, 2003, 2006 and 2011, which were used in the model parameterisation process. Red vertical bars represent 95% confidence intervals for prevalence in 2017, which was not used in the model parameterisation process.</p

Fig 1 -

Modelled incidence rates of first MI by age group for men (A) and women (B), 1998–2035.</p

Modelled age-standardised event rates for MI (first and subsequent) for men and women, over 55s only, 1998–2035.

Modelled age-standardised event rates for MI (first and subsequent) for men and women, over 55s only, 1998–2035.</p

Detailed description of the microPRIME model.

(DOCX)</p

Fig 3 -

Modelled prevalence rates of first MI by age group for men (A) and women (B), 1998–2035.</p

Dietary and related metabolic risk factors, population exposure to risks and disease outcomes included in PRIMEtime.

Dietary and related metabolic risk factors, population exposure to risks and disease outcomes included in PRIMEtime.</p

DALYs averted overt the lifetime of the UK population.

<p>DALYs averted overt the lifetime of the UK population.</p

Current and proposed recommendations used as constraints in the optimisation modelling (after Scarborough et al [4]).

<p>Current and proposed recommendations used as constraints in the optimisation modelling (after Scarborough et al [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0167859#pone.0167859.ref004" target="_blank">4</a>]).</p

The contribution of modelled risk factors to the net gain in health when: (a) total energy intake is constrained; and (b) energy intake is not constrained.

<p>(NB. each value reflects the change in total DALYs if the risk factor is eliminated from the analyses).</p