103 research outputs found

    Self-Employment Dynamics, State Dependence and Cross-Mobility Patterns

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    This paper analyzes the mobility between self-employment, wage employment and non-employment. Using data for men in West Germany, we find strong true state dependence in all three states. Moreover, compared to wage employment, non-employment increases the probability of self-employment significantly, and self-employment goes along with a higher risk of future non-employment.self-employment, state dependence, labor market dynamics, unemployment

    Estimation of Multinomial Logit Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity Using Maximum Simulated Likelihood

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    In this paper we suggest a Stata routine for multinomial logit models with unobserved heterogeneity using maximum simulated likelihood based on Halton sequences. The purpose of this paper is twofold: First, we provide a description of the technical implementation of the estimation routine and discuss its properties. Further, we compare our estimation routine to the Stata program gllamm which solves integration using Gauss Hermite quadrature or Bayesian adaptive quadrature. For the analysis we draw on multilevel data about schooling. Our empirical findings show that the estimation techniques lead to approximately the same estimation results. The advantage of simulation over Gauss Hermite quadrature is a marked reduction in computational time for integrals with higher dimensions. Bayesian quadrature, however, leads to very stable results with only a few quadrature points, thus the computational advantage of Halton based simulation vanishes in our example with one and two dimensional integrals.multinomial logit model, panel data, unobserved heterogeneity, maximum simulated likelihood, Halton sequences

    Self-Employment Dynamics, State Dependence and Cross-Mobility Patterns

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    This paper analyzes the mobility between self-employment, wage employment and non-employment. Using data for men in West Germany, we find strong true state dependence in all three states. Moreover, compared to wage employment, non-employment increases the probability of self-employment significantly, and selfemployment goes along with a higher risk of future non-employment.Self-Employment, State Dependence, Labor Market Dynamics, Unemployment

    Unemployment Dynamics among Migrants and Natives

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    Unemployment rates are often higher for migrants than for natives. This could result from longer periods of unemployment as well as from shorter periods of employment. This paper jointly examines male native-migrant differences in the duration of unemployment and subsequent employment using German panel data and bivariate discrete time hazard rate models. Compared to natives with the same observable and unobservable characteristics, unemployed migrants do not find less stable positions but they need more time to find these jobs. The probability of leaving unemployment also varies strongly between ethnicities, while first and second generation Turks are identified as the major problem group. Therefore, policy should concentrate on the job finding process of Turkish migrants to fight their disadvantages on the labor market.Unemployment duration, employment stability, bivariate hazard rate models, migration, ethnicity

    Employment Effects of Welfare Reforms: Evidence from a Dynamic Structural Life-Cycle Model

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    In this paper we develop a dynamic structural life-cycle model of labor supply behavior which fully accounts for the effects of income tax and transfers on labor supply incentives. Additionally, the model recognizes the demand side driven rationing risk that might prevent individuals from realizing their optimal labor supply state, resulting in involuntary unemployment. We use this framework to study the employment effects of transforming a traditional welfare state, as is currently in place in Germany, towards a more Anglo-American system in which a large proportion of transfers are paid to the working poor.Life-cycle labor supply, Involuntary unemployment, In-work credits

    Too Bad to Benefit?: Effect Heterogeneity of Public Training Programs

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    This study analyzes the treatment effects of public training programs for the unemployed in Germany. Based on propensity score matching methods we extend the picture that has been sketched in previous studies by estimating treatment effects of medium-term programs for different sub-groups with respect to vocational education and age. Our results indicate that program participation has a positive impact on employment probabilities for all sub-groups. Participants also seem to find more often higher paid jobs than non-participants. However, we find only little evidence for the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects, and the magnitude of the differences is quite small. Our results are thus - at least in part - conflicting with the strategy to increasingly provide training to individuals with better employment prospects.Program Evaluation, Active Labor Market Policy, Effect Heterogeneity, Public Training Programs, Matching

    Der Einfluss von Persönlichkeitseigenschaften und sozialen Ressourcen auf die Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer

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    The influence of human capital, the local unemployment rate, the family situation, personal characteristics and the social resources on the individual length of unemployment in Germany are analysed with data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Because of interactions of some covariables with time, an unproportional Cox-regression is estimated. This analysis confirms the results of previous studies, and the consideration of personal characteristics and social resources leads to new additional findings. In West-Germany mobile persons and actors with internal control find a job more easily while in East-Germany social capital has a positive influence on the probability of reemployment. Untersucht wird der Einfluss des Humankapitals, der Arbeitsmarktlage, der famili√§ren Situation sowie der Pers√∂nlichkeitseigenschaften und sozialen Ressourcen auf die individuelle Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer anhand des Sozio√∂konomischen Panels (SOEP) in West- und Ostdeutschland. Es wird eine unproportionale Cox-Regression mit Interaktionseffekten ausgew√§hlter Pr√§diktoren mit der Zeit gesch√§tzt. Die Ergebnisse vergleichbarer Analysen werden best√§tigt und es zeigt sich, dass die Ber√ľcksichtigung der √ľblicherweise vernachl√§ssigten Pers√∂nlichkeitseigenschaften und sozialen Ressourcen neue Erkenntnisse liefert. In Westdeutschland finden mobile und internal kontrollierte Arbeitslose schneller eine neue Besch√§ftigung, w√§hrend in Ostdeutschland soziales Kapital positive Auswirkungen auf die Besch√§ftigungswahrscheinlichkeit hat.

    Benefit Duration, Unemployment Duration and Job Match Quality: A Regression-Discontinuity Approach

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    The generosity of the Unemployment Insurance system (UI) plays a central role for the job search behavior of unemployed individuals. Standard search theory predicts that an increase in UI benefit generosity, either in terms of benefit duration or entitlement, has a negative impact on the job search activities of the unemployed increasing their unemployment duration. Despite the disincentive effect of UI on unemployment duration, UI benefit generosity may also increase job match quality by allowing individuals to wait for better job offers. In this paper we use a sharp discontinuity in the maximum duration of unemployment benefits in Germany, which increases from 12 months to 18 months at the age of 45, to identify the effect of extended benefit duration on unemployment duration and post-unemployment outcomes. We find a spike in the re-employment hazard for the unemployed workers with 12 months benefit duration, which occurs around benefit exhaustion. This leads to lower unemployment duration compared to their counterparts with 18 months benefit duration. However, we also show that those unemployed who obtain jobs close to and after the time when benefits are exhausted are significantly more likely to exit subsequent employment and receive lower wages compared to their counterparts with extended benefit duration.Unemployment benefits, unemployment duration, employment probability, job match quality, regression discontinuity

    Social Networks, Job Search Methods and Reservation Wages: Evidence for Germany

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    In this paper we analyze the relationship between social networks and the job search behavior of unemployed individuals. It is believed that networks convey useful information in the job search process such that individuals with larger networks should experience a higher productivity of informal search. Hence, job search theory suggests that individuals with larger networks use informal search channels more often and substitute from formal to informal search. Due to the increase in search productivity, it is also likely that individuals set higher reservation wages. We analyze these relations using a novel data set of unemployed individuals in Germany containing extensive information on job search behavior and direct measures for the social network of individuals. Our findings confirm theoretical expectations. Individuals with larger networks use informal search channels more often and shift from formal to informal search. We find that informal search is mainly considered a substitute for passive, less cost intensive search channels. In addition to that, we find evidence for a positive relationship between the network size and reservation wages.job search behavior, unemployment, social networks

    Employment effects of welfare reforms: Evidence from a dynamic structural life-cycle model

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    In this paper we develop a dynamic structural life-cycle model of labor supply behavior which fully accounts for the effects of income tax and transfers on labor supply incentives. Additionally, the model recognizes the demand side driven rationing risk that might prevent individuals from realizing their optimal labor supply state, resulting in involuntary unemployment. We use this framework to study the employment effects of transforming a traditional welfare state, as is currently in place in Germany, towards a more Anglo-American system in which a large proportion of transfers are paid to the working poor.life-cycle labor supply ; involuntary unemployment ; in-work credits
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