The parameters and variables (with units) of the Chikungunya model.

<p>The parameters and variables (with units) of the Chikungunya model.</p

Mathematical model output (bars) fitted to weekly Chikungunya incidence data (circles) collected during the 2005–6 epidemic on Réunion island, Indian Ocean.

<p>Mathematical model output (bars) fitted to weekly Chikungunya incidence data (circles) collected during the 2005–6 epidemic on Réunion island, Indian Ocean.</p

Compartmental construction of the epidemiological model for Chikungunya transmission.

<p>Susceptible humans (S) are exposed to infection (E) before becoming infectious (I_a asymptomatically, or I symptomatically) and then recover (R). Susceptible mosquitoes (X) are exposed to infection (Y) before becoming infectious (Z). Transmission from mosquito-to-human and vice versa is denoted by the broken lines indicating a mosquito bite. Rates of change between compartments are denoted by corresponding Greek letters.</p

Controlling a chikungunya epidemic.

<p>Top, the reduction in the type reproduction number (<i>R_T</i>) as a function of vector control (increased mosquito mortality rate). Middle, the reduction in the type reproduction number as a function of quarantine (solid line, <i>Q₁</i>– pre-emptive isolation through screening or self-reporting mosquito bites, and, broken line, <i>Q₂</i>– isolation following symptoms onset). Bottom, the combinations of vector control with quarantining (solid line <i>Q₁</i> and broken line <i>Q₂</i>) required to reduce the <i>R_T</i> below unity.</p

Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients demonstrating model output sensitivity to input parameters.

<p>10,000 iterations of a Monte Carlo simulation were performed allowing each input parameter to vary by ±10% around its modal value.</p

Plots of cross-correlations between number of monthly autochthonous DF cases and monthly climate variables during 2000 to 2009 in Cairns, Australia.

<p>ADF is monthly autochthonous DF cases. SDRH is monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity. SDMT is monthly standard deviation of daily minimum temperature. ln(SDR) is log-transformed monthly standard deviation of daily rainfall. The two dash lines are critical values for cross-correlation (at the 5% level).</p

The estimated parameters, RR, OR and 95% confidence intervals for the count negative binomial portion and zero hurdle portion of the TNBH model.

<p> AR is autoregressive term. MT is monthly minimum temperature. SDRH is monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity. ln(SDR) is log-transformed monthly standard deviation of daily rainfall. SDMT is monthly standard deviation of daily minimum temperature.</p

Boxplots of the numbers of autochthonous DF cases and imported DF cases for each month across the years 2000 to 2009 in Cairns, Australia.

<p>Boxplots of the numbers of autochthonous DF cases and imported DF cases for each month across the years 2000 to 2009 in Cairns, Australia.</p

The percentages of imported DF cases from overseas between 1^st January 2000 and 31^st December 2009 in Cairns, Australia.

<p>The percentages of imported DF cases from overseas between 1^st January 2000 and 31^st December 2009 in Cairns, Australia.</p

Pairwise scatterplot of monthly autochthonous DF cases and selected explanatory variables.

<p>ADF is monthly autochthonous DF cases. LIMDF is log-transformed monthly imported DF cases. Lrainfall is log-transformed monthly rainfall. SDRH is monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity. LSDR is log-transformed monthly standard deviation of daily rainfall at a lag of one month. LSDMT is monthly standard deviation of daily minimum temperature at a lag of one month.</p