Technology diffusion and the spatial distribution of wages in the US

What explains the spatial distribution of wages across US counties? I find that two of the most important factors are spatial technology diffusion and externalities due to the aggregate scale of production. One empirical finding supporting the importance of spatial technology diffusion is that average wages in a county decrease with the average level of schooling in neighboring counties when employment in the county and average wages in neighboring counties are held constant. All empirical results are obtained using a novel instrument for (endogenous) employment at the county-level and take into account other factors (e.g. productivity-differences across states, climate) that may determine wages.US spatial wage distribution, spatial technology diffusion, dynamic spatial externalities, spatial fixed effects

Resistance to reform: Reconsidering the role of individual-specific uncertainty

Individual-specific uncertainty may increase the chances of reform being enacted and sustained. Reform may be more likely to be enacted because a majority of agents might end up losing little from reform and a minority gaining a lot. Under certainty, reform would therefore be rejected, but it may be enacted with uncertainty because those who end up losing believe that they might be among the winners. Reform may be more likely to be sustained because, in a realistic setting, reform will increase the incentives of agents to move into those economic activities that benefit. Agents who respond to these incentives will vote to sustain reform in future elections, even if they would have rejected reform under certainty. These points are made using the trade-model of Fernandez and Rodrik (AER, 1991).Status-quo bias, bias against reform, individual-specific uncertainty

Estimating the effect of transitory economic shocks on civil conflict

This note tries to clarify some remaining issues in the debate on the effect of income shocks on civil conflict. Section 1 discusses the discrepant findings on the effect of rainfall shocks on civil conflict in Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011) and Ciccone (2011). Section 2 develops an instrumental variables approach to estimate the effect of transitory (rainfall-driven) income shocks on civil conflict and contrasts the conclusions with those of Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) and Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011). Throughout, the note uses the data of Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti to focus on the methodological issues at the core of the debate (for results using the latest data see Ciccone, 2011).transitory economic shocks, conflict, weather,

The contribution of schooling in development accounting: Results from a nonparametric upper bound

How much would output increase if underdeveloped economies were to increase their levels of schooling? We contribute to the development accounting literature by describing a non-parametric upper bound on the increase in output that can be generated by more schooling. The advantage of our approach is that the upper bound is valid for any number of schooling levels with arbitrary patterns of substitution/complementarity. Another advantage is that the upper bound is robust to certain forms of endogenous technology response to changes in schooling. We also quantify the upper bound for all economies with the necessary data, compare our results with the standard development accounting approach, and provide an update on the results using the standard approach for a large sample of countries.development accounting, imperfect substitution

Adjustment to target capital, finance and growth

Does financial development result in capital being reallocated more rapidly to industries where it is most productive? We argue that if this was the case, financially developed countries should see faster growth in industries with investment opportunities due to global demand and productivity shifts. Testing this cross-industry cross-country growth implication requires proxies for (latent) global industry investment opportunities. We show that tests relying only on data from specific (benchmark) countries may yield spurious evidence for or against the hypothesis. We therefore develop an alternative approach that combines benchmark-country proxies with a proxy that does not reflect opportunities specific to a country or level of financial development. Our empirical results yield clear support for the capital reallocation hypothesis.Financial development, sector analysis, growth, measurement error, investment opportunities

Trade, extent of the market and economic growth 1960-1996

We find that trade and domestic market size are robust determinants of economic growth over the 1960-1996 period when trade openness is measured as the US dollar value of imports and exports relative to GDP in PPP US$('real openness'). When trade openness is measured as the US dollar value of imports and exports relative to GDP in exchange rate US$ ('nominal openness') however, trade and the size of domestic markets are often non-robust determinants of growth. We argue that real openness is the more appropriate measure of trade and that our empirical results should be seen as evidence in favor of the extent-of-the-market hypothesis.Extent of the market, institutions, growth

On payoff heterogeneity in games with strategic complementarities

Payoff heterogeneity weakens positive feedback in binary choice models in two ways. First, heterogeneity drives individuals to corners where they are unaffected by strategic complementarities. Second, aggregate behaviour is smoother than individual behaviour when individuals are heterogeneous. However, this smoothing does not necessarily eliminate positive feedback or guarantee a unique equilibrium. In games with an unbounded, continuous choice space, heterogeneity may either weaken or strengthen positive feedback, depending on a simple convexity/concavity condition. We conclude that positive feedback phenomena derived in representative agent models will often be robust to heterogeneity.Heterogeneity, multiplicity, discrete choice, strategic complementarity, positive feedback

Determinants of economic growth: will data tell?

Many factors inhibiting and facilitating economic growth have been suggested. Will international income data tell which matter when all are treated symmetrically a priori? We find that growth determinants emerging from agnostic Bayesian model averaging and classical model selection procedures are sensitive to income differences across datasets. For example, many of the 1975-1996 growth determinants according to World Bank income data turn out to be irrelevant when using Penn World Table data instead (the WB adjusts for purchasing power using a slightly different methodology). And each revision of the 1960-1996 PWT income data brings substantial changes regarding growth determinants. We show that research based on stronger priors about potential growth determinants is more robust to imperfect international income data. JEL Classification: E01, O47Growth regressions, robust growth determinants

Red tape and delayed entry

Does cutting red tape foster entrepreneurship in industries with the potential to expand? We address this question by combining the time needed to comply with government entry procedures in 45 countries with industry-level data on employment growth and growth in the number of establishments during the 1980s. Our main empirical finding is that countries where it takes less time to register new businesses have seen more entry in industries that experienced expansionary global demand and technology shifts. Our estimates take into account that proxying global industry shifts using data from only one country–or group of countries with similar entry regulations–will in general yield biased results.Entry regulation, entry, globally expanding industries

Red tape and delayed entry

Does cutting red tape foster entrepreneurship in industries with the potential to expand? We address this question by combining the time needed to comply with government entry procedures in 45 countries with industry-level data on employment growth and growth in the number of establishments during the 1980s. Our main empirical finding is that countries where it takes less time to register new businesses have seen more entry in industries that experienced expansionary global demand and technology shifts. Our estimates take into account that proxying global industry shifts using data from only one country–or group of countries with similar entry regulations–will in general yield biased results. JEL Classification: E6, F43, L16entry, entry regulation and globally expanding industries