Financial Integration, Growth, and Volatility

The aim of the paper is to evaluate the welfare gains from financial integration for developing and emerging economies. To do so, we build a stochastic endogenous growth model for a small open economy that can (i) borrow from the rest of the world, (ii) invest in foreign assets, and (iii) receive FDI. The model is calibrated on 32 emerging and developing economies for which we evaluate the upper bound for the welfare gain from financial integration. For plausible values of preference parameters and actual levels of financial integration, the mean welfare gain from financial integration is about 10 percent of the existing wealth. Compared to financial autarky, actual levels of financial integration translate into slightly higher annual growth rates (around 0.4 percentage points per year.)financial integration; risk-sharing; endogenous growth; stochastic growth

La nouvelle modélisation macroéconomique appliquée à l'analyse de la conjoncture et à l'évaluation des politiques : les modèles dynamiques stochastiques d'équilibre général (DSGE)

National audienceCet article introduit un numéro spécial présentant la totalité des aspects de la nouvelle macroéconomie dynamique. Il est divisé en trois parties : la spécification des modèles DSGE, les méthodes de simulation, d'estimation et de test des modèles DSGE, les applications des modèles DSGE

Productivity Growth: the Role of Institutions and Economic Policy

Productivity, Growth, Institutions, Economic Policy

Alveolar echinococcosis in solid organ transplant recipients: a case series from two national cohorts

Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a severe parasitic infection caused by the ingestion of Echinococcus multilocularis eggs. While higher incidence and faster evolution have been reported in immunosuppressed patients, no studies have been performed specifically on AE in transplant patients. We searched for all de novo AE cases diagnosed between January 2008 and August 2018 in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients included in the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study and the FrancEchino Registry. Eight cases were identified (kidney = 5, lung = 2, heart = 1, liver = 0), half of which were asymptomatic at diagnosis. AE diagnosis was difficult due to the low sensitivity (60%) of the standard screening serology (Em2+) and the frequently atypical radiological presentations. Conversely, Echinococcus Western blot retained good diagnostic performances and was positive in all eight cases. Five patients underwent surgery, but complete resection could only be achieved in one case. Moreover, two patients died of peri-operative complications. Albendazole was initiated in seven patients and was well tolerated. Overall, AE regressed in one, stabilized in three, and progressed in one case, and had an overall mortality of 37.5% (3/8 patients). Our data suggest that AE has a higher mortality and a faster clinical course in SOT recipients; they also suggest that the parasitic disease might be due to the reactivation of latent microscopic liver lesions through immune suppression. Western blot serology should be preferred in this population. Finally, surgery should be considered with caution, because of its low success rate and high mortality, and conservative treatment with albendazole is well tolerated

Vaccine breakthrough hypoxemic COVID-19 pneumonia in patients with auto-Abs neutralizing type I IFNs

Life-threatening `breakthrough' cases of critical COVID-19 are attributed to poor or waning antibody response to the SARS- CoV-2 vaccine in individuals already at risk. Pre-existing autoantibodies (auto-Abs) neutralizing type I IFNs underlie at least 15% of critical COVID-19 pneumonia cases in unvaccinated individuals; however, their contribution to hypoxemic breakthrough cases in vaccinated people remains unknown. Here, we studied a cohort of 48 individuals ( age 20-86 years) who received 2 doses of an mRNA vaccine and developed a breakthrough infection with hypoxemic COVID-19 pneumonia 2 weeks to 4 months later. Antibody levels to the vaccine, neutralization of the virus, and auto- Abs to type I IFNs were measured in the plasma. Forty-two individuals had no known deficiency of B cell immunity and a normal antibody response to the vaccine. Among them, ten (24%) had auto-Abs neutralizing type I IFNs (aged 43-86 years). Eight of these ten patients had auto-Abs neutralizing both IFN-a2 and IFN-., while two neutralized IFN-omega only. No patient neutralized IFN-ss. Seven neutralized 10 ng/mL of type I IFNs, and three 100 pg/mL only. Seven patients neutralized SARS-CoV-2 D614G and the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) efficiently, while one patient neutralized Delta slightly less efficiently. Two of the three patients neutralizing only 100 pg/mL of type I IFNs neutralized both D61G and Delta less efficiently. Despite two mRNA vaccine inoculations and the presence of circulating antibodies capable of neutralizing SARS-CoV-2, auto-Abs neutralizing type I IFNs may underlie a significant proportion of hypoxemic COVID-19 pneumonia cases, highlighting the importance of this particularly vulnerable population

COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study

Background: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. Methods: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. Results: ‘Typical’ symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. Interpretation: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men

Neurological manifestations of COVID-19 in adults and children

Different neurological manifestations of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in adults and children and their impact have not been well characterized. We aimed to determine the prevalence of neurological manifestations and in-hospital complications among hospitalized COVID-19 patients and ascertain differences between adults and children. We conducted a prospective multicentre observational study using the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) cohort across 1507 sites worldwide from 30 January 2020 to 25 May 2021. Analyses of neurological manifestations and neurological complications considered unadjusted prevalence estimates for predefined patient subgroups, and adjusted estimates as a function of patient age and time of hospitalization using generalized linear models. Overall, 161 239 patients (158 267 adults; 2972 children) hospitalized with COVID-19 and assessed for neurological manifestations and complications were included. In adults and children, the most frequent neurological manifestations at admission were fatigue (adults: 37.4%; children: 20.4%), altered consciousness (20.9%; 6.8%), myalgia (16.9%; 7.6%), dysgeusia (7.4%; 1.9%), anosmia (6.0%; 2.2%) and seizure (1.1%; 5.2%). In adults, the most frequent in-hospital neurological complications were stroke (1.5%), seizure (1%) and CNS infection (0.2%). Each occurred more frequently in intensive care unit (ICU) than in non-ICU patients. In children, seizure was the only neurological complication to occur more frequently in ICU versus non-ICU (7.1% versus 2.3%, P < 0.001). Stroke prevalence increased with increasing age, while CNS infection and seizure steadily decreased with age. There was a dramatic decrease in stroke over time during the pandemic. Hypertension, chronic neurological disease and the use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation were associated with increased risk of stroke. Altered consciousness was associated with CNS infection, seizure and stroke. All in-hospital neurological complications were associated with increased odds of death. The likelihood of death rose with increasing age, especially after 25 years of age. In conclusion, adults and children have different neurological manifestations and in-hospital complications associated with COVID-19. Stroke risk increased with increasing age, while CNS infection and seizure risk decreased with age

À la recherche des déterminants de l'investissement des entreprises

[fre] Les investissements des entreprises et la date de leur réalisation sont des éléments importants de la dynamique de court et de long terme des éco-nomies. La volatilité dans le temps des dépenses d'investissement est, en effet, la principale composante des cycles économiques de court terme de l'économie. Toutes les théories de la croissance, comme les travaux empiriques,placent par ailleurs les dépenses d'investissement au coeur du phénomène de croissance économique. Le comportement d'investissement des entreprises a donc naturellement fait l'objet d'un grand nombre de travaux théoriques et empiriques. Leur but est d'identifier les déterminants de l'investissement des entreprises et de mesurer la façon dont la politique économique - essentiellement à travers la fiscalité des entreprises et des ménages et le niveau des taux d'intérêt - influence ce comportement. En dépit des recherches consacrées à ce sujet, les résultats empiriques étaient encore assez limités au milieu des années 80 : sur données individuelles comme sur données agrégées, les principaux déterminants de l'investissement étaient la croissance de la production (ou de la valeur ajoutée) et le taux de profit. Ce résultat empirique était connu sous le nom de « modèle accélérateur-profit ». Ces résultats étaient insatisfaisants, non seulement pour aider à la mise en oeuvre éventuelle de politiques économiques susceptibles de soutenir ou de ne pas peser sur l'investissement des entreprises, mais aussi pour leur manque de cohérence avec les modèles théoriques alors disponibles. Les 15 dernières années ont connu d'importantes avancées dans l'approche théorique et empirique de l'investissement. Ce numéro spécial d'Économie et Statistique est l'occasion de dresser un état des lieux de cette recherche et d'en dégager les principaux résultats.

Croissance et réduction de la pauvreté dans les pays en développement et les pays en transition

Title ?Growth and Poverty Reduction in Developing and Transition CountriesAbstract ?The aim of the paper is to evaluate economic growth rates required indifferentes regions of the world to reach the millenium development goal of halvingglobal poverty rate by 2015. Current situation of poverty is briefly presented in the firstpart of the paper. The second part investigates the link amongst economic growth,inequality, and poverty reduction. Studying 99 episodes of growth or economic recession,we show that the greater the initial inequality the lower the elasticity of poverty to growth,and the higher the initial economic development the higher the elasticity. Based onthese results, we evaluate that the per capita growth rate required to reach the milleniumdevelopment goal in African, Asian and Latin American countries is around 50 %, muchlower for Eastern European countries and the Middle East.Poverty, Growth, Inequality