LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS TRADE: PROSPECTS FOR LIBERALISATION

This paper was presented at the INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS SYMPOSIUM in Auckland, New Zealand, January 18-19, 2001. The Symposium was sponsored by: the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, the Venture Trust, Massey University, New Zealand, and the Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies, Massey University. Dietary changes, especially in developing countries, are driving a massive increase in demand for livestock products. The objective of this symposium was to examine the consequences of this phenomenon, which some have even called a "revolution." How are dietary patterns changing, and can increased demands for livestock products be satisfied from domestic resources? If so, at what cost? What will be the flow-on impacts, for example, in terms of increased demands for feedgrains and the pressures for change within marketing systems? A supply-side response has been the continued development of large-scale, urban-based industrial livestock production systems that in many cases give rise to environmental concerns. If additional imports seem required, where will they originate and what about food security in the importing regions? How might market access conditions be re-negotiated to make increased imports achievable? Other important issues discussed involved food safety, animal health and welfare and the adoption of biotechnology, and their interactions with the negotiation of reforms to domestic and trade policies. Individual papers from this conference are available on AgEcon Search. If you would like to see the complete agenda and set of papers from this conference, please visit the IATRC Symposium web page at: http://www1.umn.edu/iatrc.intro.htmInternational Relations/Trade,

Comparing the effects of different approaches to liberalising world grains markets

The success of the current Doha Round of the WTO negotiations on agriculture will require substantial reform in each of the three areas of market access, export subsidies and domestic support. Substantial improvement in market access for agricultural products will be an essential requirement for achieving a successful outcome. However, the extent of improvement in market access resulting from the current negotiations will largely depend on the form and the approach followed to reduce tariffs and expand tariff rate quotas. In this paper different approaches to expanding market access for grains area analysed using a partial equilibrium model. Simulated scenarios include linear reductions in applied tariffs and expansions in tariff rate quotas, which are contrasted with a scenario representing market access proposals of the Cairns Group of countries in the current WTO agricultural negotiations. The effects of these two trade liberalisation scenarios on world prices and trade are analysed and discussed. Results indicate that to achieve a meaningful gain in market access for grains, WTO members must agree to either directly reduce the current applied tariffs or make large percentage reductions to the WTO bound rates, which lead to effective reductions in the current applied rates.Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade,

Risk of suicide during treatment with venlafaxine, italopram, fluoxetine, and dothiepin : retrospective cohort study

Objective To compare the risk of suicide in adults usingthe antidepressant venlafaxine compared with citalopram, fluoxetine, and dothiepin. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting UK General Practice Research Database. Participants 219 088 patients, aged 18-89 years, who were prescribed venlafaxine, citalopram, fluoxetine, or dothiepin from 1995 to 2005. Main outcome measures Completed suicide and attempted suicide. Results Venlafaxine users had a higher burden of risk factors for suicide, includingprevious suicide attempts and proxies for severe depression or depression that was difficult to treat. In the analysis for completed suicides, unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios for venlafaxine compared with citalopram were 2.44 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 5.31) and 1.70 (0.76 to 3.80), for venlafaxine compared with fluoxetine were 2.85 (1.37 to 5.94) and 1.63 (0.74 to 3.59), and for venlafaxine compared with dothiepin were 2.54 (1.07 to 6.02) and 1.31 (0.53 to 3.25). Compared with other study drugs, venlafaxine was also associated with an increased risk of attempted suicide, but adjustment for measured confounders substantially reduced the hazard ratios. Conclusions Venlafaxine use was consistently associated with higher risk of suicide compared with citalopram, fluoxetine, and dothiepin. Venlafaxine users had a higher burden of suicide risk factors, however, and adjustment for measured confounders substantially reduced the excess risks. Since the secondary data used in this analysis allowed only indirect and partial measurements of potential confounders, it is possible that residual confounding explains much, if not all, of the observed excess risk

A data mining tool for detecting and predicting abnormal behaviour of railway tunnels

The UK railway network is subjected to an electrification process that aims to electrify most of the network by 2020. This upgrade will improve the capacity, reliability and efficiency of the transportation system by providing cleaner, quicker and more comfortable trains. During this process, railway infrastructures, such as tunnels, require to be adapted in order to provide the necessary clearance for the overhead line equipment, and consequently, a rigorous real-time health monitoring programme is needed to assure safety of workforce. Large amounts of data are generated by the real-time monitoring system, and automated data mining tools are then required to process this data accurately and quickly. Particularly, if an unexpected behaviour of the tunnel is identified, decision makers need to know: i) activities at the worksite at the time of movement occurring; ii) the predicted behaviour of the tunnel in the next few hours. In this paper, we propose a data mining method which is able to automatically analyse the database of the real-time recorded displacements of the tunnel by detecting the unexpected tunnel behaviour. The proposed tool, first of all, relies on a step of data pre-processing, which is used to remove the measurement noise, followed by a feature definition and selection process, which aims to identify the unexpected critical behaviours of the tunnel. The most critical behaviours are then analysed by developing a change-point detection method, which detects precisely when the tunnel started to deviate from the predicted safe behaviour. Finally, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method is used to predict the future displacements of the tunnel by providing fast information to decision makers that can optimize the working schedule accordingly

Innovation in Tourism Planning

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