Area under the receiver-operator curve for IVFpredict and Templeton models, and female age alone, for predicting live birth from 130,960 IVF cycles.

<p>* Based on 144,018 cycles occurring in the UK between 2003 and 2007 [<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0121357#pone.0121357.ref012" target="_blank">12</a>].</p><p>** Model predicting decreasing probability of live birth with increasing female age.</p><p>*** Model predicting decreasing probability of live birth with increasing female age categories (18–34, 35–37, 38–39, 40–42, 43–44 and 45–50 years).</p><p>Area under the receiver-operator curve for IVFpredict and Templeton models, and female age alone, for predicting live birth from 130,960 IVF cycles.</p

Calibration plot for updated IVFpredict and Templeton models.

<p>Based on 130,960 IVF cycles. Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistics: p<0.001. Solid line, updated IVFpredict model; dashed line, updated Templeton model; dotted, diagonal line, perfect prediction (reference).</p

Inclusion/exclusion criteria and formation of the validation sample.

<p>Inclusion/exclusion criteria and formation of the validation sample.</p

Net reclassification index for IVFpredict compared with the Templeton model.

<p>* Not including 3 cycles with equal prognosis in the updated IVFpredict and Templeton models.</p><p>Net reclassification index for IVFpredict compared with the Templeton model.</p

Characteristics of patients and treatment in the validation sample, consisting of 130,960 IVF cycles.

<p>Characteristics of patients and treatment in the validation sample, consisting of 130,960 IVF cycles.</p

Calibration plot for the IVFpredict and Templeton models.

<p>Based on 130,960 IVF cycles. Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistics: p<0.001. Solid line, IVFpredict model; dashed line, Templeton model; dotted, diagonal line, perfect prediction (reference).</p

Brier scores and decomposition for IVFpredict and Templeton models, from 130,960 IVF cycles.

<p>Scaled modified Brier score = 1 + Scaled reliability—Scaled uncertainty.</p><p>Brier scores and decomposition for IVFpredict and Templeton models, from 130,960 IVF cycles.</p