Proyecciones probabilísticas de la fecundidad en Argentina

In recent years, a significant number of demographic statistical methods have been proposed. Most of them have been developed with the purpose of forecasting demographic components or indicators derived from the assumptions of an underlying model. The present work aims to carry out a comprehensive comparative exercise through the estimation and forecast of fertility based on three proposals —classic forecast methods such as ARIMA models and exponential smoothing, functional data models (FDM) and Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM)— as a first step towards the study of population projections derived from each of method, using data from Argentina. The exercise has as final objective the estimation of mortality and fertility through the three aforementioned methods to later integrate them into population projections.En los últimos años se ha propuesto una importante cantidad de métodos estadísticos demográficos. La gran mayoría han sido desarrollados con la finalidad de pronosticar las componentes demográficas y/o medidas derivadas a partir de la suposición de un modelo subyacente. El presente trabajo pretende realizar un ejercicio comparativo integral a través de la estimación y pronóstico de la fecundidad a partir de tres propuestas —métodos clásicos de pronóstico, tales como los modelos ARIMA y los suavizados exponenciales, modelos para datos funcionales (MDF) y modelos jerárquicos bayesianos (MJB)—, como un primer paso hacia el estudio de las proyecciones de población derivadas de cada una de ellas, empleando datos de la Argentina. El ejercicio tiene como horizonte final la estimación de la mortalidad y la fecundidad a través de los tres métodos mencionados para luego integrarlos en proyecciones de población

POBREZA POR INGRESO Y TIEMPO EN LA CIUDAD DE ROSARIO

Recently, and especially from Amartya Sen's capacity and functioning approach, poverty measurements taking into account only one dimension of well-being such as income have been questioned, and, increasing importance has been given to the measurement of poverty from a multidimensional perspective. The proposed LIMTIP time and income poverty measure takes invisible unpaid work as a starting point to establish a threshold of time requirements. If household income reaches to compensate for the value of these time deficits, then they will be poor in time but not in adjusted income. If income is not enough to buy substitutes for this time deficit, then the people and households in which they live will be poor in time and income. The measure of income and time poverty LIMTIP corrects measures of absolute poverty to which we are accustomed to make them more faithful to their assumptions. This work incorporates the temporal dimension to the poverty measurement using the LIMTIP methodology on data from the “Encuesta de uso de tiempo y voluntariado” (Time Use Survey and Volunteering) carried out in the city of Rosario in 2010.Últimamente, y en especial a partir del enfoque de capacidades y funcionamientos de Amartya Sen, se han cuestionado las mediciones de pobreza donde se tiene en cuenta sólo una dimensión del bienestar, como es el ingreso, y se ha dado creciente importancia a la medición de la pobreza desde una perspectiva multidimensional. La propuesta de medida de pobreza de tiempo e ingreso LIMTIP toma el trabajo no remunerado invisibilizado como punto de partida para establecer un umbral de requerimientos de tiempo. Si el ingreso del hogar alcanza para compensar el valor de estos déficits de tiempo, entonces serán pobres de tiempo pero no de ingreso ajustado. Si el ingreso no alcanza para comprar sustitutos de este déficit de tiempo, entonces las personas y los hogares en que habitan serán pobres de tiempo e ingresos. La medida de pobreza de ingreso y tiempo LIMTIP corrige medidas de pobreza absoluta a las que estamos acostumbrados para hacerlas más fieles a sus supuestos. Este trabajo incorpora la dimensión temporal a la medición de pobreza utilizando la metodología LIMTIP sobre datos de la Encuesta de Uso de Tiempo y Voluntariado realizada en la ciudad de Rosario en 2010

Gluten deprivation: What nutritional changes are found during the first year in newly diagnosed coeliac children?

Aim: A gluten-free diet (GFD) can expose children to excessive calories and fat intake. The study is intended to verify whether and how food intake, laboratory parameters, and growth are modified by a year of GFD. Methods: In 79 CD (coeliac disease) children (mean age 7.9 \ub1 3.8 years, 52 females, 27 males) diagnosed over 24 months, 24-h food diaries, food-frequency patterns, anthropometric and laboratory parameters (mainly blood sugar, insulin, lipid profile, and homocysteine) were prospectively collected before and during the first year of GFD. Nutrient intakes were compared over time and with recommendations. They were also used as regressors to explain the levels and changes of metabolic and growth variables. p-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: Average macronutrient intake did not change during the year. Caloric intake remained below 90% (p 64 0.0001) and protein intake above 200% (p 64 0.0001) of recommendations. Lipid intake was stable at 34% of overall energy intake. Unsaturated fats increased (less omega-6 and more omega-3 with a ratio improvement from 13.3 \ub1 5.5 to 8.8 \ub1 3.1) and so did fibers, while folate decreased. The children who experienced a containment in their caloric intake during the year, presented a slower catch-up growth. Some differences were found across gender and age groups. In particular, adolescents consumed less calories, and females more omega-3. Fiber and simple sugar intakes emerged as implicated in lipid profile shift: fibers negatively with triglycerides (TG) (p = 0.033), simple sugars negatively with high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (p = 0.056) and positively with TG (p = 0.004). Waist-to-height ratio was positively associated with homocysteine (p = 0.018) and Homeostasis Model Assessment (p = 0.001), negatively with fibers (p = 0.004). Conclusion: In the short run, GFD is nutritionally very similar to any diet with gluten, with some improvements in unsaturated fats and fiber intake. Along with simple sugars containment, this may offer CD patients the opportunity for a fresh start. Caloric intakes may shift and should be monitored, especially in adolescents

Exploring changes in children’s well-being due to COVID-19 restrictions: the Italian EpaS-ISS study

BackgroundWhile existing research has explored changes in health behaviours among adults and adolescents due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the impact of quarantine on young children's well-being is still less clear. Moreover, most of the published studies were carried out on small and non-representative samples. The aim of the EpaS-ISS study was to describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the habits and behaviours of a representative sample of school children aged mainly 8-9 years and their families living in Italy, exploring the changes in children's well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the immediately preceding time period.MethodsData were collected using a web questionnaire. The target population was parents of children attending third-grade primary schools and living in Italy. A cluster sample design was adopted. A Well-Being Score (WBS) was calculated by summing the scores from 10 items concerning the children's well-being. Associations between WBS and socio-demographic variables and other variables were analysed.ResultsA total of 4863 families participated. The children's WBS decreased during COVID-19 (median value from 31 to 25; p = 0.000). The most statistically significant variables related to a worsening children's WBS were: time of school closure, female gender, living in a house with only a small and unliveable outdoor area, high parents' educational level and worsening financial situation.ConclusionsAccording to parents ' perception, changes in daily routine during COVID-19 negatively affected children's well-being. This study has identified some personal and contextual variables associated with the worsening of children's WBS, which should be considered in case of similar events

Estimating adjusted prevalence ratio in clustered cross-sectional epidemiological data

BACKGROUND: Many epidemiologic studies report the odds ratio as a measure of association for cross-sectional studies with common outcomes. In such cases, the prevalence ratios may not be inferred from the estimated odds ratios. This paper overviews the most commonly used procedures to obtain adjusted prevalence ratios and extends the discussion to the analysis of clustered cross-sectional studies. METHODS: Prevalence ratios(PR) were estimated using logistic models with random effects. Their 95% confidence intervals were obtained using delta method and clustered bootstrap. The performance of these approaches was evaluated through simulation studies. Using data from two studies with health-related outcomes in children, we discuss the interpretation of the measures of association and their implications. RESULTS: The results from data analysis highlighted major differences between estimated OR and PR. Results from simulation studies indicate an improved performance of delta method compared to bootstrap when there are small number of clusters. CONCLUSION: We recommend the use of logistic model with random effects for analysis of clustered data. The choice of method to estimate confidence intervals for PR (delta or bootstrap method) should be based on study design

Prevalence of hepatic steatosis in patients with type 2 diabetes and response to glucose-lowering treatments. A multicenter retrospective study in Italian specialist care

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a risk factor for metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), which is becoming the commonest cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. We estimated MAFLD prevalence among patients with T2D using the hepatic steatosis index (HSI) and validated it against liver ultrasound. We also examined whether glucose-lowering medications (GLM) beneficially affected HSI

Similar effectiveness of dapagliflozin and GLP-1 receptor agonists concerning combined endpoints in routine clinical practice: A multicentre retrospective study

Aims According to cardiovascular outcome trials, some sodium-glucose contransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) are recommended for secondary cardiovascular prevention in type 2 diabetes (T2D). In this real-world study, we compared the simultaneous reductions in HbA1c, body weight and systolic blood pressure after initiation of dapagliflozin or GLP-1RA as second or a more advanced line of therapy. Materials and methods DARWIN-T2D was a retrospective multi-centre study conducted at diabetes specialist clinics in Italy that compared T2D patients who initiated dapagliflozin or GLP-1RA (exenatide once weekly or liraglutide). Data were collected at baseline and at the first follow-up visit after 3 to 12 months. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients achieving a simultaneous reduction in HbA1c, body weight and systolic blood pressure. To reduce confounding, we used multivariable adjustment (MVA) or propensity score matching (PSM). Results Totals of 473 patients initiating dapagliflozin and 336 patients initiating GLP-1RA were included. The two groups differed in age, diabetes duration, HbA1c, weight and concomitant medications. The median follow-up was 6 months in both groups. Using MVA or PSM, the primary endpoint was observed in 30% to 32% of patients, with no difference between groups. Simultaneous reduction of HbA1c, BP and SBP by specific threshold, as well as achievement of final goals, did not differ between groups. GLP-1RA reduced HbA1c by 0.3% more than the reduction achieved with dapagliflozin. Conclusion In routine specialist care, initiation of dapagliflozin can be as effective as initiation of a GLP-1RA for attainment of combined risk factor goals

ENPP1 Affects Insulin Action and Secretion: Evidences from In Vitro Studies

The aim of this study was to deeper investigate the mechanisms through which ENPP1, a negative modulator of insulin receptor (IR) activation, plays a role on insulin signaling, insulin secretion and eventually glucose metabolism. ENPP1 cDNA (carrying either K121 or Q121 variant) was transfected in HepG2 liver-, L6 skeletal muscle- and INS1E beta-cells. Insulin-induced IR-autophosphorylation (HepG2, L6, INS1E), Akt-Ser473, ERK1/2-Thr202/Tyr204 and GSK3-beta Ser9 phosphorylation (HepG2, L6), PEPCK mRNA levels (HepG2) and 2-deoxy-D-glucose uptake (L6) was studied. GLUT 4 mRNA (L6), insulin secretion and caspase-3 activation (INS1E) were also investigated. Insulin-induced IR-autophosphorylation was decreased in HepG2-K, L6-K, INS1E-K (20%, 52% and 11% reduction vs. untransfected cells) and twice as much in HepG2-Q, L6-Q, INS1E-Q (44%, 92% and 30%). Similar data were obtained with Akt-Ser473, ERK1/2-Thr202/Tyr204 and GSK3-beta Ser9 in HepG2 and L6. Insulin-induced reduction of PEPCK mRNA was progressively lower in untransfected, HepG2-K and HepG2-Q cells (65%, 54%, 23%). Insulin-induced glucose uptake in untransfected L6 (60% increase over basal), was totally abolished in L6-K and L6-Q cells. GLUT 4 mRNA was slightly reduced in L6-K and twice as much in L6-Q (13% and 25% reduction vs. untransfected cells). Glucose-induced insulin secretion was 60% reduced in INS1E-K and almost abolished in INS1E-Q. Serum deficiency activated caspase-3 by two, three and four folds in untransfected INS1E, INS1E-K and INS1E-Q. Glyburide-induced insulin secretion was reduced by 50% in isolated human islets from homozygous QQ donors as compared to those from KK and KQ individuals. Our data clearly indicate that ENPP1, especially when the Q121 variant is operating, affects insulin signaling and glucose metabolism in skeletal muscle- and liver-cells and both function and survival of insulin secreting beta-cells, thus representing a strong pathogenic factor predisposing to insulin resistance, defective insulin secretion and glucose metabolism abnormalities

Prescription appropriateness of anti-diabetes drugs in elderly patients hospitalized in a clinical setting: evidence from the REPOSI Register

Diabetes is an increasing global health burden with the highest prevalence (24.0%) observed in elderly people. Older diabetic adults have a greater risk of hospitalization and several geriatric syndromes than older nondiabetic adults. For these conditions, special care is required in prescribing therapies including anti- diabetes drugs. Aim of this study was to evaluate the appropriateness and the adherence to safety recommendations in the prescriptions of glucose-lowering drugs in hospitalized elderly patients with diabetes. Data for this cross-sectional study were obtained from the REgistro POliterapie-Società Italiana Medicina Interna (REPOSI) that collected clinical information on patients aged ≥ 65 years acutely admitted to Italian internal medicine and geriatric non-intensive care units (ICU) from 2010 up to 2019. Prescription appropriateness was assessed according to the 2019 AGS Beers Criteria and anti-diabetes drug data sheets.Among 5349 patients, 1624 (30.3%) had diagnosis of type 2 diabetes. At admission, 37.7% of diabetic patients received treatment with metformin, 37.3% insulin therapy, 16.4% sulfonylureas, and 11.4% glinides. Surprisingly, only 3.1% of diabetic patients were treated with new classes of anti- diabetes drugs. According to prescription criteria, at admission 15.4% of patients treated with metformin and 2.6% with sulfonylureas received inappropriately these treatments. At discharge, the inappropriateness of metformin therapy decreased (10.2%, P < 0.0001). According to Beers criteria, the inappropriate prescriptions of sulfonylureas raised to 29% both at admission and at discharge. This study shows a poor adherence to current guidelines on diabetes management in hospitalized elderly people with a high prevalence of inappropriate use of sulfonylureas according to the Beers criteria

Serum Albumin Is Inversely Associated With Portal Vein Thrombosis in Cirrhosis

We analyzed whether serum albumin is independently associated with portal vein thrombosis (PVT) in liver cirrhosis (LC) and if a biologic plausibility exists. This study was divided into three parts. In part 1 (retrospective analysis), 753 consecutive patients with LC with ultrasound-detected PVT were retrospectively analyzed. In part 2, 112 patients with LC and 56 matched controls were entered in the cross-sectional study. In part 3, 5 patients with cirrhosis were entered in the in vivo study and 4 healthy subjects (HSs) were entered in the in vitro study to explore if albumin may affect platelet activation by modulating oxidative stress. In the 753 patients with LC, the prevalence of PVT was 16.7%; logistic analysis showed that only age (odds ratio [OR], 1.024; P = 0.012) and serum albumin (OR, -0.422; P = 0.0001) significantly predicted patients with PVT. Analyzing the 112 patients with LC and controls, soluble clusters of differentiation (CD)40-ligand (P = 0.0238), soluble Nox2-derived peptide (sNox2-dp; P < 0.0001), and urinary excretion of isoprostanes (P = 0.0078) were higher in patients with LC. In LC, albumin was correlated with sCD4OL (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient [r(s)], -0.33; P < 0.001), sNox2-dp (r(s), -0.57; P < 0.0001), and urinary excretion of isoprostanes (r(s), -0.48; P < 0.0001) levels. The in vivo study showed a progressive decrease in platelet aggregation, sNox2-dp, and urinary 8-iso prostaglandin F2 alpha-III formation 2 hours and 3 days after albumin infusion. Finally, platelet aggregation, sNox2-dp, and isoprostane formation significantly decreased in platelets from HSs incubated with scalar concentrations of albumin. Conclusion: Low serum albumin in LC is associated with PVT, suggesting that albumin could be a modulator of the hemostatic system through interference with mechanisms regulating platelet activation