534 research outputs found

    Growth, History, or Institutions? What Explains State Fragility in Sub-Saharan Africa

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    We explore the determinants of state fragility in sub-Saharan Africa. Controlling for a wide range of economic, demographic, geographic and istitutional regressors, we find that institutions, and in particular the civil liberties index and the number of revolutions, are the main determinants of fragility, even taking into account their potential endogeneity. Economic factors such as income growth and investment display a non robust impact after controlling for omitted variables and reverse causality. Colonial variables reflecting the history of the region display a marginal impact on fragility once institutions are accounted for.State fragility, Africa, institutions, colonial history

    The Fragile Definition of State Fragility

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    We investigates the link between fragility and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa over a yearly panel including 28 countries for the 1999-2004 period. Beside the conventional definition of fragility adopted by the OECD Development Assistance Committee, we introduce the more severe definition of extreme fragility. We show that only the latter exerts a significantly negative impact on economic development, once standard economic, demographic, and institutional regressors are accounted for. As a by-product of this investigation we produce up-to-date evidence on the growth performance of the area. We find a tendency to convergence and no influence of geographic and historical factors.State fragility; growth; Africa; aid.

    Growth, History, or Institutions? What Explains State Fragility in Sub-Saharan Africa

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    We explore the determinants of state fragility in sub-Saharan Africa. Controlling for a wide range of economic, demographic, geographic and istitutional regressors, we find that institutions, and in particular the civil liberties index and the number of revolutions, are the main determinants of fragility, even taking into account their potential endogeneity. Economic factors such as income growth and investment display a non robust impact after controlling for omitted variables and reverse causality. Colonial variables reflecting the history of the region display a marginal impact on fragility once institutions are accounted for.state fragility, Africa, institutions, colonial history

    Growth, History, or Institutions? What Explains State Fragility in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Get PDF
    We explore the determinants of state fragility in sub-Saharan Africa. Controlling for a wide range of economic, demographic, geographic and istitutional regressors, we find that institutions, and in particular the civil liberties index and the number of revolutions, are the main determinants of fragility, even taking into account their potential endogeneity. Economic factors such as income growth and investment display a non robust impact after controlling for omitted variables and reverse causality. Colonial variables reflecting the history of the region display a marginal impact on fragility once institutions are accounted for.State fragility, Africa, institutions, colonial history.

    Changes in Venice Lagoon dynamics due to construction of mobile barriers

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    The MoSE project (construction of mobile barrier to safeguard the Lagoon of Venice) entails changes to the structure of the lagoon\u27s inlets. This could have consequences for the areas near the inlets and for the dynamics of the lagoon ecosystem as a whole. In order to predict the effects of the proposed alterations on the hydrodynamics of the lagoon, a well-tested hydrodynamic-dispersion model was applied. Simulations were carried out considering both idealised and realistic tide and wind scenarios. The results show that with the new structures the Lido sub-basin tends to increase its extension due the southward movement of the watershed, at the expense of the Chioggia sub-basin, whereas the Malamocco sub-basin changes its relative position, but not its extension. The residence time shows variations in agreement with this trend, decreasing in the southern part of the Lido sub-basin and increasing in the inner part of the Chioggia sub-basin. The variations in residence time and return fl ow factor indicate that they are caused by changes in both instantaneous current velocities and sea-lagoon interaction. In fact the new breakwaters in front of the Malamocco and Chioggia inlets modify the length and direction of the out fl ow jet (up to 1 ms− 1 ) and the patterns of the currents around the inlets and the nearby coast. The new arti fi cial island in the Lido inlet changes the current pattern and increases the current velocity on the southern side of the channel propagating this effect up to the Venice city. The risks and benefits individuated from our conclusion are that the Lido sub-basin can improve its renewal time, but the more intense current speeds can be a risk for the conservation of habitats and infrastructures. Finally the micro-circulation between the breakwater and the coast in Chioggia and Malamocco inlets can be a trap for pollutants or suspended sediment

    High pressure homogenization versus heat treatment: effect on survival, growth, and metabolism of dairy Leuconostoc strains.

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    The effect of high pressure homogenization (HPH) with respect to a traditional heat treatment on the inactivation, growth at 8°C after treatments, and volatile profile of adventitious Leuconostoc strains isolated from Cremoso Argentino spoiled cheeses and ingredients used for their manufacture was evaluated. Most Leuconostoc strains revealed elevated resistance to HPH (eight passes, 100 MPa), especially when resuspended in skim milk. Heat treatment was more efficient than HPH in inactivating Leuconostoc cells at the three initial levels tested. The levels of alcohols and sulfur compounds increased during incubation at 8°C in HPH-treated samples, while the highest amounts of aldehydes and ketones characterized were in heated samples. Leuconostoc cells resuspended in skim milk and subjected to one single-pass HPH treatment using an industrial-scale machine showed remarkable reductions in viable cell counts only when 300 and 400 MPa were applied. However, the cell counts of treated samples rose rapidly after only 5 days of storage at 8°C. The Leuconostoc strains tested in this work were highly resistant to the inactivation treatments applied. Neither HPH nor heat treatment assured their total destruction, even though they were more sensitive to the thermal treatment. To enhance the inhibitory effect on Leuconostoc cells, HPH should be combined with a mild heat treatment, which in addition to efficient microbial inactivation, could allow maximal retention of the physicochemical properties of the product

    Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

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    [EN] With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 di erent combinations of a global climate model (GCM)¿regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041¿2070) and long-term (2071¿2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983¿2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between di erent GCM¿RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.Sperotto, A.; Molina, J.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Marcomini, A. (2019). Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks. Sustainability. 11(17):1-34. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11174764S1341117RES/70/1. Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Developmenthttps://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworldPasini, S., Torresan, S., Rizzi, J., Zabeo, A., Critto, A., & Marcomini, A. 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Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, 12(1), 18-27. doi:10.1080/10807030500428538Uusitalo, L. (2007). Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling. Ecological Modelling, 203(3-4), 312-318. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.11.033Wallach, D., Mearns, L. O., Ruane, A. C., Rötter, R. P., & Asseng, S. (2016). Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling. Climatic Change, 139(3-4), 551-564. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1803-1Tebaldi, C., & Knutti, R. (2007). The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365(1857), 2053-2075. doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2076Martre, P., Wallach, D., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Jones, J. W., Rötter, R. P., … Wolf, J. (2014). Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one. Global Change Biology, 21(2), 911-925. doi:10.1111/gcb.12768Krishnamurti, T. N., Kishtawal, C. M., Zhang, Z., LaRow, T., Bachiochi, D., Williford, E., … Surendran, S. (2000). Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts for Weather and Seasonal Climate. Journal of Climate, 13(23), 4196-4216. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)0132.0.co;2Xu, H., Brown, D. G., & Steiner, A. L. (2018). Sensitivity to climate change of land use and management patterns optimized for efficient mitigation of nutrient pollution. Climatic Change, 147(3-4), 647-662. doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2159-5Zuliani, A., Zaggia, L., Collavini, F., & Zonta, R. (2005). Freshwater discharge from the drainage basin to the Venice Lagoon (Italy). Environment International, 31(7), 929-938. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2005.05.004Facca, C., Ceoldo, S., Pellegrino, N., & Sfriso, A. (2014). Natural Recovery and Planned Intervention in Coastal Wetlands: Venice Lagoon (Northern Adriatic Sea, Italy) as a Case Study. The Scientific World Journal, 2014, 1-15. doi:10.1155/2014/968618Pesce, M., Critto, A., Torresan, S., Giubilato, E., Santini, M., Zirino, A., … Marcomini, A. (2018). Modelling climate change impacts on nutrients and primary production in coastal waters. Science of The Total Environment, 628-629, 919-937. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.131Scoccimarro, E., Gualdi, S., Bellucci, A., Sanna, A., Giuseppe Fogli, P., Manzini, E., … Navarra, A. (2011). Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Ocean Heat Transport in a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model. Journal of Climate, 24(16), 4368-4384. doi:10.1175/2011jcli4104.1Cattaneo, L., Zollo, A. L., Bucchignani, E., Montesarchio, M., Manzi, M. P., & Mercogliano, P. (2012). Assessment of COSMO-CLM Performances over Mediterranean Area. SSRN Electronic Journal. doi:10.2139/ssrn.2195524Sperotto, A., Molina, J. L., Torresan, S., Critto, A., Pulido-Velazquez, M., & Marcomini, A. (2019). 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    Impact of Improvement in Walking Speed on Hospitalization and Mortality in Females with Cardiovascular Disease

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    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the principal cause of death in women. Walking speed (WS) is strongly related with mortality and CVD. The rate of all-cause hospitalization or death was assessed in 290 female outpatients with CVD after participation in a cardiac rehabilitation/secondary prevention program (CR/SP) and associated with the WS maintained during a moderate 1 km treadmill-walk. Three-year mortality rates were 57%, 44%, and 29% for the slow (2.1 ± 0.4 km/h), moderate (3.1 ± 0.3 km/h), and fast (4.3 ± 0.6 km/h) walkers, respectively, with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 0.78 (p = 0.24) and 0.55 (p = 0.03) for moderate and fast walkers compared to the slow walkers. In addition, hospitalization or death was examined four to six years after enrollment as a function of the change in the WS of 176 patients re-assessed during the third year after baseline. The rates of hospitalization or death were higher across tertiles of reduced WS, with 35%, 50%, and 53% for the high (1.5 ± 0.3 km/h), intermediate (0.7 ± 0.2 km/h), and low tertiles (0.2 ± 0.2 km/h). Adjusted HRs were 0.79 (p = 0.38) for the intermediate and 0.47 (p = 0.02) for the high tertile compared to the low improvement tertile. Improved walking speed was associated with a graded decrease in hospitalization or death from any cause in women undergoing CR/SP

    TORINO 2030. A prova di futuro

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    Il progetto “Torino 2030: a prova di futuro” nasce come iniziativa di un gruppo di ricercatrici e ricercatori del mondo accademico torinese che, nella primavera/estate del 2020, hanno condiviso l’esigenza di ripensare la strategia di sviluppo dell’area metropolitana. Tale ripensamento è generato da due fattori concomitanti: da una parte, la contingenza della crisi pandemica che obbliga l’area vasta torinese a una trasformazione in chiave rigenerativa; dall’altra, la crisi strutturale dell’economia locale e della struttura sociale, da lungo tempo caratterizzate da diseguaglianze e debolezze. Il progetto che ne è nato “Torino 2030: a prova di futuro” è stato condiviso con i Rettori dei due Atenei e rappresenta un’opportunità per mettersi al servizio del territorio e della comunità al fine di contribuire, con i propri saperi e strumenti, a una visione integrata e strategica dello sviluppo e della trasformazione della metropoli postpandemia. La preparazione di questo documento si inserisce quindi nelle attività della cosiddetta “terza missione”. I saperi alla base del progetto di “Torino 2030: a prova di futuro” sono quelli specialistici e complementari delle diverse discipline SSH (Social Science & Humanities) e STEM (Science-Technology-Engineering-Mathematics) tipiche delle nostre due comunità accademiche. A fianco di questi, grazie al caratteristico percorso metodologico adottato,basato sull’approccio scientifico dei future studies, sono state incorporate e ricomprese tutte quelle preziose forme di conoscenza diffusa sul territorio che appartiene agli attori e operatori dei diversi settori toccati dalla ricerca. “Torino 2030: a prova di futuro” si caratterizza quindi per essere una “ricerca-azione”, con solide basi scientifiche e una fondamentale capacità di risposta a quel bisogno di futuro messo in evidenza nella introduzione e nei capitoli successivi. L’area torinese, nel suo insieme, si è spesso caratterizzata come ambito di sperimentazione e innovazione e, anche in questi anni difficili, è in grado di progettare un futuro all’altezza delle sfide che la attendono. Da questa ricerca-azione è nato un progetto che ha individuato 6 sfide, 12 missioni e 41 azioni volte a affrontare i problemi sociali, economici, ambientali e territoriali dell’area vasta metropolitana. Problematiche che richiedono una classe dirigente coesa e capace di mettere a valore la diversità organizzata che caratterizza il tessuto economico, civile e culturale del territorio
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