Financial intermediation, investment dynamics and business cycle fluctuations

How important are financial friction shocks in business cycles fluctuations? To answer this question, I use micro data to quantify key features of US financial markets. I then construct a dynamic equilibrium model that is consistent with these features and fit the model to business cycle data using Bayesian methods. In my micro data analysis, I establish facts that may be of independent interest. For example, I find that a substantial 35% of firm investment is funded using financial markets. The dynamic model introduces price and wage rigidities and a financial intermediation shock into Kiyotaki and Moore (2008). According to the estimated model, the financial intermediation shock explains around 35% of GDP and 60% of investment volatility. The estimation assigns such a large role to the financial shock for two reasons: (i) the shock is closely related to the interest rate spread, and this spread is strongly countercyclical and (ii) according to the model, the response in consumption, investment, employment and asset prices to a financial shock resembles the behavior of these variables over the business cycle

Core and 'crust': Consumer prices and the term structure of interest rates

We propose a no-arbitrage model that jointly explains the dynamics of consumer prices as well as the nominal and real term structures of risk-free rates. In our framework, distinct core, food, and energy price series combine into a measure of total inflation to price nominal Treasuries. This approach captures different frequencies in inflation fluctuations: Shocks to core are more persistent and less volatile than shocks to food and, especially, energy (the 'crust'). We find that a common structure of latent factors determines and predicts the term structure of yields and inflation. The model outperforms popular benchmarks and is at par with the Survey of Professional Forecasters in forecasting inflation. Real rates implied by our model uncover the presence of a time-varying component in TIPS yields that we attribute to disruptions in the inflation-indexed bond market. Finally, we find a pronounced declining pattern in the inflation risk premium that illustrates the changing nature of inflation risk in nominal Treasuries

Financial intermediation, investment dynamics and business cycle fluctuations

How important are financial friction shocks in business cycles fluctuations? To answer this question, I use micro data to quantify key features of US financial markets. I then construct a dynamic equilibrium model that is consistent with these features and fit the model to business cycle data using Bayesian methods. In my micro data analysis, I establish facts that may be of independent interest. For example, I find that a substantial 33% of firm investment is funded using financial markets. The dynamic model introduces price and wage rigidities and a financial intermediation shock into Kiyotaki and Moore (2008). According to the estimated model, the financial intermediation shock explains around 40% of GDP and 55% of investment volatility. The estimation assigns such a large role to the financial shock for two reasons: (i) the shock is closely related to the interest rate spread, and this spread is strongly countercyclical and (ii) according to the model, the response in consumption, investment, employment and asset prices to a financial shock resembles the behavior of these variables over the business cycle

Financial intermediation, investment dynamics and business cycle fluctuations

How important are financial friction shocks in business cycles fluctuations? To answer this question, I use micro data to quantify key features of US financial markets. I then construct a dynamic equilibrium model that is consistent with these features and fit the model to business cycle data using Bayesian methods. In my micro data analysis, I establish facts that may be of independent interest. For example, I find that a substantial 35% of firm investment is funded using financial markets. The dynamic model introduces price and wage rigidities and a financial intermediation shock into Kiyotaki and Moore (2008). According to the estimated model, the financial intermediation shock explains around 35% of GDP and 60% of investment volatility. The estimation assigns such a large role to the financial shock for two reasons: (i) the shock is closely related to the interest rate spread, and this spread is strongly countercyclical and (ii) according to the model, the response in consumption, investment, employment and asset prices to a financial shock resembles the behavior of these variables over the business cycle

Compton thick AGN in the NuSTAR era

We present the 2-100 keV spectral analysis of 30 candidate Compton thick (CT-) active galactic nuclei (AGN) selected in the Swift-BAT 100-month survey. The average redshift of these objects is $\langle z\rangle\sim$0.03 and they all lie within $\sim$500 Mpc. We used the MyTorus (Murphy et al. 2009) model to perform X-ray spectral fitting both without and with the contribution of the NuSTAR data in the 3-50 keV energy range. When the NuSTAR data are added to the fit, 14 out of 30 of these objects (47% of the whole sample) have intrinsic absorption N$_{\rm H}$3$\sigma$ confidence level, i.e., they are re-classified from Compton thick to Compton thin. Consequently, we infer an overall observed fraction of CT-AGN with respect to the whole AGN population lower than the one reported in previous works, and as low as $\sim$4%. We find evidence that this over-estimation of N$_{\rm H}$ is likely due to the low quality of a subsample of spectra, either in the 2-10 keV band or in the Swift-BAT one.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication on the Astrophysical Journa

Cervical Spine Inhomogeneously Enhancing Lesion: Avoiding Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek information and evidence in order to confirm a preexisting hypothesis while giving less importance and overlook an alternative solution. This report describes the case of a 52-year-old man with a long history of neck pain and bilateral upper limbs paresthesias with a cervical intracanal inhomogeneously enhancing lesion. Despite all the preoperative radiological findings, a spinal meningioma an anterior approach was performed. The mass ended up being a large migrated hernia with the involvement of two levels. Before suggesting treatment, especially surgery, physicians and practitioners need to evaluate all of the possible alternatives in order to optimize patient outcome

Compton-thick AGNs in the NuSTAR era. V: Joint NuSTAR and XMM-Newton spectral analysis of three "soft-Gamma" candidate CT-AGNs in the Swift-BAT 100-month catalog

We present the joint NuSTAR and XMM-Newton spectral analysis in the 0.6-70 keV band of three candidate Compton thick (CT-) AGN selected in the 100-month Swift-BAT catalog. These objects were previously classified as CT-AGNs based on low quality Swift-XRT and Swift-BAT data, and had soft photon indices (Gamma>2.2) that suggested a potential overestimation of the line of sight column density. Thanks to the high-quality NuSTAR and XMM-Newton data we were able to determine that in all three objects the photon index was significantly overestimated, and two out of three sources are reclassified from CT to Compton thin, confirming a previously observed trend, i.e., that a significant fraction of BAT-selected, candidate CT-AGNs with poor soft X-ray data are reclassified as Compton thin when the NuSTAR data are added to the fit. Finally, thanks to both the good XMM-Newton spatial resolution and the high NuSTAR and XMM-Newton spectral quality, we found that the third object in our sample was associated to the wrong counterpart: the correct one, 2MASX J10331570+5252182, has redshift z=0.14036, which makes it one of the very few candidate CT-AGNs in the 100-month BAT catalog detected at z>0.1, and a rare CT quasar.Comment: 12 Pages, 4 Figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

Compton-thick AGN in the NuSTAR era III: A systematic study of the torus covering factor

We present the analysis of a sample of 35 candidate Compton thick (CT-) active galactic nuclei (AGNs) selected in the nearby Universe (average redshift ~0.03) with the Swift-BAT 100-month survey. All sources have available NuSTAR data, thus allowing us to constrain with unprecedented quality important spectral parameters such as the obscuring torus line-of-sight column density (N_{H, z}), the average torus column density (N_{H, tor}) and the torus covering factor (f_c). We compare the best-fit results obtained with the widely used MyTorus (Murphy et al. 2009) model with those of the recently published borus02 model (Balokovic et al. 2018) used in the same geometrical configuration of MyTorus (i.e., with f_c=0.5). We find a remarkable agreement between the two, although with increasing dispersion in N_{H, z} moving towards higher column densities. We then use borus02 to measure f_c. High-f_c sources have, on average, smaller offset between N_{H, z} and N_{H, tor} than low-f_c ones. Therefore, low f_c values can be linked to a "patchy torus" scenario, where the AGN is seen through an over-dense region in the torus, while high-f_c objects are more likely to be obscured by a more uniform gas distribution. Finally, we find potential evidence of an inverse trend between f_c and the AGN 2-10 keV luminosity, i.e., sources with higher f_c values have on average lower luminosities.Comment: 35 Pages, 23 Figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

Beginning a journey across the universe: the discovery of extragalactic neutrino factories

Neutrinos are the most elusive particles in the Universe, capable of traveling nearly unimpeded across it. Despite the vast amount of data collected, a long standing and unsolved issue is still the association of high-energy neutrinos with the astrophysical sources that originate them. Amongst the candidate sources of neutrinos there are blazars, a class of extragalactic sources powered by supermassive black holes that feed highly relativistic jets, pointed towards the Earth. Previous studies appear controversial, with several efforts claiming a tentative link between high-energy neutrino events and individual blazars, and others putting into question such relation. In this work we show that blazars are unambiguously associated with high-energy astrophysical neutrinos at unprecedented level of confidence, i.e. chance probability of 6 x 10^{-7}. Our statistical analysis provides the observational evidence that blazars are astrophysical neutrino factories and hence, extragalactic cosmic-ray accelerators.Comment: Published in ApJ