Including debris cover effects in a distributed model of glacier ablation

Distributed glacier melt models generally assume that the glacier surface consists of bare exposed ice and snow. In reality, many glaciers are wholly or partially covered in layers of debris that tend to suppress ablation rates. In this paper, an existing physically based point model for the ablation of debris-covered ice is incorporated in a distributed melt model and applied to Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland, which has three large patches of debris cover on its surface. The model is based on a 10 m resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the area; each glacier pixel in the DEM is defined as either bare or debris-covered ice, and may be covered in snow that must be melted off before ice ablation is assumed to occur. Each debris-covered pixel is assigned a debris thickness value using probability distributions based on over 1000 manual thickness measurements. Locally observed meteorological data are used to run energy balance calculations in every pixel, using an approach suitable for snow, bare ice or debris-covered ice as appropriate. The use of the debris model significantly reduces the total ablation in the debris-covered areas, however the precise reduction is sensitive to the temperature extrapolation used in the model distribution because air near the debris surface tends to be slightly warmer than over bare ice. Overall results suggest that the debris patches, which cover 10% of the glacierized area, reduce total runoff from the glacierized part of the basin by up to 7%

Heterogeneous Agent Models: Two Simple Case Studies

These notes review two simple heterogeneous agent models in economics and finance. The first is a cobweb model with rational versus naive agents introduced in Brock and Hommes (1997). The second is an asset pricing model with fundamentalists versus technical traders introduced in Brock and Hommes (1998). Agents are boundedly rational and switch between different trading strategies, based upon an evolutionary fitness measure given by realized past profits. Evolutionary switching creates a nonlinearity in the dynamics. Rational routes to randomness, that is, bifurcation routes to complicated dynamical behaviour occur when agents become more sensitive to differences in evolutionary fitness

Temporally ordered collective creep and dynamic transition in the charge-density-wave conductor NbSe3

We have observed an unusual form of creep at low temperatures in the charge-density-wave (CDW) conductor NbSe$_3$. This creep develops when CDW motion becomes limited by thermally-activated phase advance past individual impurities, demonstrating the importance of local pinning and related short-length-scale dynamics. Unlike in vortex lattices, elastic collective dynamics on longer length scales results in temporally ordered motion and a finite threshold field. A first-order dynamic phase transition from creep to high-velocity sliding produces "switching" in the velocity-field characteristic.Comment: 4 pages, 4 eps figures; minor clarifications To be published in Phys. Rev. Let

Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

Grandparental Child Care in Europe : Evidence for Preferential Investment in More Certain Kin

Peer reviewe

Leveraging Deep Learning-Based Segmentation and Contours-Driven Deformable Registration for Dose Accumulation in Abdominal Structures

PURPOSE: Discrepancies between planned and delivered dose to GI structures during radiation therapy (RT) of liver cancer may hamper the prediction of treatment outcomes. The purpose of this study is to develop a streamlined workflow for dose accumulation in a treatment planning system (TPS) during liver image-guided RT and to assess its accuracy when using different deformable image registration (DIR) algorithms. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty-six patients with primary and metastatic liver cancer treated with external beam radiotherapy guided by daily CT-on-rails (CTOR) were retrospectively analyzed. The liver, stomach and duodenum contours were auto-segmented on all planning CTs and daily CTORs using deep-learning methods. Dose accumulation was performed for each patient using scripting functionalities of the TPS and considering three available DIR algorithms based on: (i) image intensities only; (ii) intensities + contours; (iii) a biomechanical model (contours only). Planned and accumulated doses were converted to equivalent dose in 2Gy (EQD2) and normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) were calculated for the stomach and duodenum. Dosimetric indexes for the normal liver, GTV, stomach and duodenum and the NTCP values were exported from the TPS for analysis of the discrepancies between planned and the different accumulated doses. RESULTS: Deep learning segmentation of the stomach and duodenum enabled considerable acceleration of the dose accumulation process for the 56 patients. Differences between accumulated and planned doses were analyzed considering the 3 DIR methods. For the normal liver, stomach and duodenum, the distribution of the 56 differences in maximum doses (D2%) presented a significantly higher variance when a contour-driven DIR method was used instead of the intensity only-based method. Comparing the two contour-driven DIR methods, differences in accumulated minimum doses (D98%) in the GTV were \u3e2Gy for 15 (27%) of the patients. Considering accumulated dose instead of planned dose in standard NTCP models of the duodenum demonstrated a high sensitivity of the duodenum toxicity risk to these dose discrepancies, whereas smaller variations were observed for the stomach. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated a successful implementation of an automatic workflow for dose accumulation during liver cancer RT in a commercial TPS. The use of contour-driven DIR methods led to larger discrepancies between planned and accumulated doses in comparison to using an intensity only based DIR method, suggesting a better capability of these approaches in estimating complex deformations of the GI organs

Study of Zγ events and limits on anomalous ZZγ and Zγγ couplings in pp̄ collisions at s=1.96TeV

We present a measurement of the Zγ production cross section and limits on anomalous ZZγ and Zγγ couplings for form-factor scales of Λ=750 and 1000 GeV. The measurement is based on 138 (152) candidates in the eeγ (μμγ) final state using 320(290)pb-1 of pp̄ collisions at s=1.96TeV. The 95% C.L. limits on real and imaginary parts of individual anomalous couplings are |h10,30Z|<0.23, |h20,40Z|<0.020, |h10,30γ|<0.23, and |h20,40γ|<0.019 for Λ=1000GeV. © 2005 The American Physical Society

Protecting eyewitness evidence: Examining the efficacy of a self-administered interview tool

Given the crucial role of eyewitness evidence, statements should be obtained as soon as possible after an incident. This is not always achieved due to demands on police resources. Two studies trace the development of a new tool, the Self-Administered Interview (SAI), designed to elicit a comprehensive initial statement. In Study 1, SAI participants reported more correct details than participants who provided a free recall account, and performed at the same level as participants given a Cognitive Interview. In Study 2, participants viewed a simulated crime and half recorded their statement using the SAI. After a delay of 1 week, all participants completed a free recall test. SAI participants recalled more correct details in the delayed recall task than control participants

Limits on WWgamma and WWZ Couplings from W Boson Pair Production

The results of a search for W boson pair production in pbar-p collisions at sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV with subsequent decay to emu, ee, and mumu channels are presented. Five candidate events are observed with an expected background of 3.1+-0.4 events for an integrated luminosity of approximately 97 pb^{-1}. Limits on the anomalous couplings are obtained from a maximum likelihood fit of the E_T spectra of the leptons in the candidate events. Assuming identical WWgamma and WWZ couplings, the 95 % C.L. limits are -0.62<Delta_kappa<0.77 (lambda = 0) and -0.53<lambda<0.56 (Delta_kappa = 0) for a form factor scale Lambda = 1.5 TeV.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, submitted to Physical Review

Measurement of B[Y(5S)->Bs(*) anti-Bs(*)] Using phi Mesons

Knowledge of the Bs decay fraction of the Y(5S) resonance, fs, is important for Bs meson studies at the Y(5S) energy. Using a data sample collected by the CLEO III detector at CESR consisting of 0.423/fb on the Y(5S) resonance, 6.34/fb on the Y(4S) and 2.32/fb in the continuum below the Y(4S), we measure B(Y(5S) -> phi X)=(13.8 +/- 0.7 {+2.3}{-1.5})% and B(Y(4S) -> phi X) = (7.1 +/- 0.1 +/-0.6)%; the ratio of the two rates is (1.9 +/- 0.1 {+0.3}{-0.2}). This is the first measurement of the phi meson yield from the Y(5S). Using these rates, and a model dependent estimate of B(Bs -> phi X), we determine fs = (24.6 +/- 2.9 {+11.0}{-5.3})%. We also update our previous independent measurement of fs made using the inclusive Ds yields to now be (16.8 +/- 2.6 {+6.7}{-3.4)%, due to a better estimate of the number of hadronic events. We also report the total Y(5S) hadronic cross section above continuum to be sigma(e^+e^- -> Y(5S))=(0.301 +/- 0.002 +/- 0.039) nb. This allows us to extract the fraction of B mesons as (58.9+/-10.0+/-9.2)%, equal to 1-fs. averaging the three methods gives a model dependent result of fs=(21 {+6}{-3})%.Comment: 23 pages postscript,also available through http://www.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS/2006/, Submitted to PR