Automation and demographic change

We analyze the effects of declining population growth on the adoption of automation technology. A standard theoretical framework of the accumulation of traditional physical capital and of automation capital predicts that countries with a lower population growth rate are the ones that innovate and/or adopt new automation technologies faster. We test the theoretical prediction by means of panel data for 60 countries over the time span from 1993 to 2013. Regression estimates provide empirical support for the theoretical prediction and suggest that a 1% increase in population growth is associated with approximately a 2% reduction in the growth rate of robot density. Our results are robust to the inclusion of standard control variables, the use of different estimation methods, the consideration of a dynamic framework with the lagged dependent variable as regressor, and changing the measurement of the stock of robots

The relationship between the Chinese 'going out' strategy and international trade

This study is the first to estimate a system of simultaneous gravity equations for Chinese exports, imports and foreign direct investment (FDI) using a sample of 167 countries over the period 2003–2012. The main results indicate that trade and outward FDI are complementary. In particular, the authors show that outward Chinese FDI is related to higher exports and imports and that China trades more with countries hosting Chinese FDI. Results are also robust to the use of instrumental variables. Therefore, Chinese investment seems to foster trade

ICTs quality and quantity and the margins of trade

Given the importance of the fixed costs of exporting, we investigate how information and communication technologies (ICTs) relate to the extensive and intensive margin of trade (the fraction of products that are exported and the market share, respectively). We use a novel dataset on the quantity and quality of ICTs, namely the number of subscriptions (per capita) and the average quality of subscriptions (bandwidth). To test this relationship, we use an augmented Gravity Model of Trade with ICTs using panel data and controlling for multilateral resistance. Regression results for 150 countries over 1995–2014 provide robust evidence that ICTs matter for the extensive margin of trade. The evidence is even stronger for developing countries in terms of quality. Although the number of subscriptions matters for the extensive margin, the quality matters even more. While having a device helps producers and consumers access world markets, how much information these devices can share and how stable connections are also matte

The Impact of 3D Printing on Trade and FDI

This paper analyzes the effects of 3D printing technologies on the volume of trade and on the structure of FDI. A standard model with firm-specific heterogeneity generates three main predictions. First, 3D printers are introduced in areas with high economic activity that also face high transport costs. Second, technological progress related to 3D printing machines leads to a gradual replacement of FDI that relies on traditional production structures with FDI based on 3D printing techniques. At this stage international trade stays unaffected. Finally, at later stages, with 3D printing machines being widely used, further technological progress in 3D printing leads to a gradual replacement of international trade. Empirical evidence indicates that countries subject to higher transport costs and with high levels of economic activity are indeed among the ones that import more 3D printers. Anecdotal evidence also supports the second and third predictions of the model

Hungry Children Age Faster

We analyze how childhood hunger affects human aging for a panel of European individuals. For this purpose, we use six waves of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) dataset and construct a health deficit index. Results from log-linear regressions suggest that, on average, elderly European men and women developed about 20 percent more health deficits when they experienced a hunger episode in their childhood. The effect becomes larger when the hunger episode is experienced earlier in childhood. In non-linear regressions (akin to the Gompertz-Makeham law), we obtain greater effects suggesting that health deficits in old age are up to 40 percent higher for children suffering from hunger. The wedge of health deficits between hungry and and non-hungry individuals increases absolutely and relatively with age. This implies that individuals who suffered from hunger as children age faster

How We Fall Apart: Similarities of Human Aging in 10 European Countries

We analyze human aging, understood as health deficit accumulation, for a panel of European individuals. For that purpose, we use four waves of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE dataset) and construct a health deficit index. Results from log-linear regressions suggest that, on average, elderly European men and women develop about 2.5 percent more health deficits from one birthday to the next. In non-linear regression (akin to the Gompertz-Makeham model), however, we find much greater rates of aging and large differences between men and women as well as between countries. Interestingly, these differences follow a particular regularity (akin to the compensation effect of mortality). They suggest an age at which average health deficits converge for men and women and across countries

DEMOCRACY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: DIFFERENTIAL EFFECTS FROM A PANEL QUANTILE REGRESSION FRAMEWORK Democracy and International Trade: Differential Effects from a Panel Quantile Regression Framework "WHEN PEOPLE ARE FREE TO SPEAK THEIR MINDS AND HOLD THEIR

ABSTRACT There has been a wide debate on whether democracy actually has an effect on economic outcomes, and especially on international trade. With a new estimation strategy, we analyze this relationship taking a look at the distribution of countries' trading activity. Using a panel quantile estimation framework from Powell (2014), we find a stronger relationship at the lower quantiles, especially for the import activity. Our results suggest that the impact of democratization on trade is more important when countries trade less: the marginal benefit of democratization decreases as countries trade more. This feature supports a widely neglected issue in the literature: economies very active in the international trading network are not necessarily the most democratic countries. The results are robust to different institutional variables and even to instrumental variables estimation. Our results demonstrate that the effect of democracy on trade is underestimated using Ordinary Least Squares estimation for the group of countries for which the effect is statistically significant for, namely those countries that are active in the lower quantiles of the trading distribution. Moreover, our results complement the findings by JEL Code: C21, F14, F63, O1

Health and aging before and after retirement

In this paper, we investigate health and aging before and after retirement for specific occupational groups. We use five waves of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) dataset and construct a frailty index for elderly men and women from 10 European countries. We classify occupation by low vs. high education, blue vs. white collar color, and by high vs. low physical or psychosocial job burden. Controlling for individual fixed effects, we find that, regardless of the used classification, workers from the first (low status) group display more health deficits at any age and accumulate health deficits faster than workers from the second (high status) group. We instrument retirement by statutory retirement ages ("normal" and "early") and find that the health of workers in low status occupations benefits greatly from retirement, whereas retirement effects for workers in high status occupations are small and frequently insignificant. We also find that workers from low status occupations accumulate health deficits faster after retirement, i.e. we find evidence for an occupational health gradient that widens with increasing age, before and after retirement

Democracy and International Trade: Differential Effects from a Panel Quantile Regression Framework

There has been a wide debate on whether democracy actually has an effect on economic outcomes, and especially on international trade. With a new estimation strategy, we analyze this relationship taking a look at the distribution of countries´ trading activity. Using a panel quantile estimation framework from Powell (2014), we find a stronger relationship at the lower quantiles, especially for the import activity. Our results suggest that the impact of democratization on trade is more important when countries trade less: the marginal benefit of democratization decreases as countries trade more. This feature supports a widely neglected issue in the literature: economies very active in the international trading network are not necessarily the most democratic countries. The results are robust to different institutional variables and even to instrumental variables estimation. Our results demonstrate that the effect of democracy on trade is underestimated using Ordinary Least Squares estimation for the group of countries for which the effect is statistically significant for, namely those countries that are active in the lower quantiles of the trading distribution. Moreover, our results complement the findings by Barro (1996) which suggest that the effects of democracy for economic growth are not uniform for all countries