Term structure information and bond strategies

We examine term structure theories by using a novel approach. We form bond investment strategies based on different theories of the term structure in order to determine which strategy performs best. When using a manipulation-proof performance measure, we find that consistent with prior literature, an active strategy that is based on time varying term premiums can indeed form the basis of a successful bond strategy that outperforms an unbiased expectation inspired passive bond buy and hold strategy. This is true, however, for an earlier time period when the literature first made this claim. In a later time period, we find that the passive buy and hold strategy is significantly superior to all active strategies. This result is confirmed by statistical tests and it suggests that once it became known that an active strategy based on time varying term premiums could outperform a passive buy and hold strategy, the markets adjusted and arbitraged away this opportunity. Overall, it appears that the unbiased expectation hypothesis is the most likely explanation of the behaviour of the term structure during more recent times. This is because economically and statistically significant superior performance cannot be achieved if one uses information from the forward curve or the term structure as a guide to adjusting bond portfolios in response to changes in the term premium.This work was supported by Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha [grant number PEII11-0031-6939]; Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación [grant number ECO2011-28134] and partially supported by Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) funds.

Currency reform, currency biases and Ghana's forex market fluctuations: Beyond the macroeconomic fundamentals

Redenomination of currency has become a common phenomenon in recent past among emerging and transitional economies. In 2007, Ghana became one of the economies to redenominate in recent past. This currency policy adaptation has the potential of triggering certain individual behavioral biases on the forex market. This study provides evidence that currency biases that accompanied Ghana's currency reform adaptation in 2007 contribute to its forex market price (exchange rate) fluctuations. Using data from 1980 to 2018 with some estimated biases and some selected macroeconomic fundamentals as covariates in an ANCOVA (Analysis of Covariance) model, the study revealed that estimated biases which were induced as a result of currency reform adaptation impact positively and significantly on Ghana's forex market prices. It is therefore recommended that policy makers, political leaders and stakeholders begin to look at human factors that may exist in the forex market and incorporate this information into future plans in addressing issues relating to forex market fluctuations