Senegal’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation

Senegal experienced annual economic growth of 4.8 percent during the 2009 to 2019 period (World Bank 2023a). With an annual population growth rate of 2.7 percent over the same period, the living standards of Senegalese improved modestly. In 2020, the global COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant slowdown in economic growth, but growth rebounded in 2021. While the country was adversely affected by the global commodity market disruptions related to the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023), its growth is projected to reach 8.0 percent in 2023 and 10.5 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023b). This suggests a much-improved short-term outlook and a future growth trajectory well above its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture is a relatively small sector in Senegal, accounting for less than one-fifth of GDP. However, the broader agrifood system (AFS), which includes processing, trade and transport of agrifood products, and food services, makes up about one-third of GDP. In this brief, we examine the performance of Senegal’s broader AFS and its contribution to growth and transformation

Transformation of Kenya’s agrifood system structure and drivers

Kenya experienced significant economic development in the 2009 to 2019 period. Gross domestic product (GDP)—an indicator of the economy’s size—expanded by an annual average of 5 percent (KNBS 2022). This exceeded population growth and helped raise household incomes, leading to a decline in poverty rates; more importantly, for the first time in at least three decades, the country experienced a decline in the absolute number of poor people (World Bank 2022). While the global COVID-19 pandemic caused negative economic growth in 2020, the economy recovered quickly in 2021. Kenya was also largely spared the adverse effects of the global commodity market disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and from the global recession in 2023 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Kenya’s GDP growth is projected to reach 5.0 percent in 2023 and 5.3 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting that the economy is resuming its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for about one-quarter of GDP and nearly half of Kenya’s employment. It has thus played an important role in economic development. The sector has grown alongside the rest of the economy despite many challenges including climate variability (Ochieng et al. 2020), weak rural infrastructure (Benin and Odjo 2018), declines in farm size (Jayne et al. 2016), and limited access to farm inputs combined with poor agronomic management (Worku et al. 2020). In this brief, we look beyond primary agriculture to understand how Kenya’s broader agrifood system (AFS) is contributing to growth and transformation in the country

Nigeria’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation

Nigeria experienced a rise and fall in economic growth over the past two decades. The economy experienced strong growth, averaging 7 percent per year, from 2000 to 2014. Then falling world oil prices caused an abrupt decline in Nigeria’s GDP in 2015 and 2016 and the country entered its first recession in nearly 20 years. Since then, the economic growth rate has remained below the population growth rate, complicating efforts to reduce poverty in a country with the world’s second-largest number of poor people (80 million) (World Bank 2022a). Various other factors contributed to sluggish economic growth, including the spread of insecurity and conflict across almost all areas of the country; policies related to COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 (Andam et al. 2020); the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war (Diao and Thurlow 2023); and general macroeconomic instability (World Bank 2022b). Nigeria’s GDP growth is projected to remain low at 2.9 percent in 2023 and 2024, barely exceeding the population growth rate (World Bank 2022c). First quarter growth in 2023 was only 2.3 percent, reflecting the impact of cash restrictions imposed by monetary authorities during the election campaign period (NBS 2023)

Rwanda’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation

This paper assesses the structure of Rwanda’s current and evolving agrifood system and its contribution to national development. The paper reiterates the point that Rwanda’s agrifood system stretches well beyond primary agriculture and creates jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. While off-farm components of Rwanda’s agrifood system have generally grown more rapidly than primary agriculture in recent years, growth varies across value chains of the agrifood system in the studied period. The growth diagnostic in this paper reveals that it is domestic markets that have driven the recent growth in Rwanda’s AFS other than exports. The paper’s forward-looking analysis assesses potentially differential impacts of value-chain development efforts on broad development outcomes. The analysis measures the synergies and trade-offs of value-chain development in the context of an inclusive agricultural transformation. Such analysis is conducted using the Rwanda Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – an adaption of IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model to the Rwandan context. The modeling results indicate that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving development goals and there are significant trade-offs among different development goals from promoting a specific value chain. The value chains that make a larger contribution to growth or job creation are not necessarily effective in reducing poverty or improving dietary quality – for example, value chains for coffee and tea – while value chains that play an important role in improving dietary quality may contribute less to job creation – such as vegetables or fruits. While there is no single value chain that can achieve all development goals effectively, it is possible to select a diversified set of value chains that complement each other in achieving different development goals. This latter strategy is a more realistic approach to growth and development

Land use and food security in 2050: a narrow road

After a first foresight study on "World food security in 2050" (Agrimonde), CIRAD and INRA have turned their attention to a new foresight exercise on 'Land use and food security in 2050' (Agrimonde-Terra). This new study seeks to highlight levers that could modify ongoing land-use patterns for improved food and nutrition security. Agrimonde-Terra proposes a trend analysis on the global context, climate change, food diets, urban-rural linkages, farm structures, cropping and livestock systems, and explores five scenarios. Three scenarios entitled "Metropolization", "Regionalization" and "Households" are based on current competing trends identified in most world regions. Two scenarios entitled "Healthy" and "Communities" involve potential breaks that could change the entire land use and food security system. The "Healthy" scenario is the only one that makes it possible to achieve sustainable world food and nutrition security in 2050. Nevertheless, current trends in agricultural and food systems in most parts of the world converge towards the "Metropolization" scenario, which is not sustainable in terms of both land use and human health. Therefore, changing the course of ongoing trends in favor of sustainable land uses and healthy food systems will be one of the main challenges of the next decades. It will require systemic transformation, strong and coherent public policies across sectors and scales, and consistent actions from a wide range of actors. This foresight provides a large information base on land uses, food systems and food security and constitutes a tool box to stimulate debates, imagine new policies and innovations. It aims to empower decision makers, stakeholders, non-governmental organizations and researchers to develop a constructive dialogue on the futures of land uses and food security at either world, regional and national levels

The Future of Food and Agriculture: Trends and Challenges

The purpose of this report is to help mobilize the concrete and concerted actions required to realize these global agendas. It contributes to a common understanding of the major long-term trends and challenges that will determine the future of food security and nutrition, rural poverty, the efficiency of food systems, and the sustainability and resilience of rural livelihoods, agricultural systems and their natural resource base

From Potentials to Reality: Transforming Africa’s Food Production : Investment and policy priorities for sufficient, nutritious and sustainable food supplies

This study identifies ways in which Africa can realize its potential to secure a supply of food for affordable and healthy diets through the sustainable use of its own resources. The focus is on investment, cooperation, and policy action. The agenda proposed here is intended to be a long-term one, but one that should be initiated in the short term with concrete actions

A Blueprint for Strengthening Food System Resilience in West Africa: Regional Priority Intervention Areas

This report was inspired by the 2019 Kigali African Food Security Leadership Dialogue (AFSLD) that called for joint action to tackle the African Food Security challenges. ECOWAS, CILSS, CORAF, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), and the World Bank provided overall leadership for the process and analysis that underpins this report. Wageningen University prepared a background paper as input to the report. The information presented in this report represents a synthesis of the analysis of relevant secondary data and information as well as interviews with over fifty West African experts working on the food systems’ issues presented in this document. Findings from the draft report were presented and discussed in a four-day virtual conference with over 300 West African actors working in diverse areas of the food system. The results of this conference, together with detailed comments from all the relevant partners associated with the report, guided the revision process and production of this final report

Food systems at risk. New trends and challenges

The way food systems have evolved over past decades means that they now face major risks, which in turn threaten the future of food systems themselves. Food systems have seriously contributed to climate change, environmental destruction, overexploitation of natural resources and pollution of air, water and soils. Despite the global average improvement in calorie production and major development of the food and agricultural product markets, huge inequalities in food access and repartition of the added value have emerged, leading to new serious nutritional and social problems. Based on a review of the most recent scientific knowledge, this report paints a gloomy picture with an emphasis on Low-Income and Lower Middle-Income countries where the population faces greater challenges than elsewhere. Different threats are adding up and there are few options to adapt or mitigate these combinations of risks. This is a call for all those - businesses, policy makers, consumers, funding agencies - who are engaged in food systems transformations to bear in mind their systemic aspects and their multiple outcomes and risks in order to be able to fashion more sustainable and equitable food systems

Agroecological practices supporting food production and reducing food insecurity in developing countries: A study on scientific literature in 17 countries

This report represents the initial effort to structure existing knowledge about agroecology as farming and food system in support of the EC Knowledge Centre on Food and Nutrition Security (https://ec.europa.eu/knowledge4policy/global-food-nutrition-security_en). Scientific literature has been screened on a selection of developing countries in which food and nutrition security and sustainable agriculture represent a focal sector for EU intervention (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cuba, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guatemala, Kenya, Lao PDR, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Nicaragua, Niger, Senegal, Tanzania, Togo, Zimbabwe). In total, 172 documents hae been synthesised, a country brief has been prepared for each investigated country, and some general conclusions have been drawn. Overall, the majority of analysed publications focuses on small scale, extensive farming systems that produce food at subsistence levels and for sale on local markets. This includes smallholder farming producing staple crops (millet, sorghum, yam, etc.) or vegetable gardening for local markets. The agroecological practices that are mostly studied are: agroforestry, intercropping (or mixed cropping), introduction of legumes in rotations, soil and water conservation practices (mulching, return of crop residues, zaï holes etc.), use of animal manure, biocontrol methods to mitigate chemical pesticide use. At least 50% of the analysed papers report a positive contribution of agroecological practices to food security, mostly due to improved yields and/or a better economic situation of producers. The improvement of soil quality is key to improve yields and consequently income and food security; this can be achieved using various practices including the use of residue mulch from tree leaves in agroforestry, as well as crop mixtures or intercropping and longer more diversified crop rotations. Moreover, higher on-farm crop species diversity often results in more diversified diets. Diversified crop systems, including the introduction of agroforestry, improves household nutritional status and has positive links to better health conditions. On the other hand, the lack of access to inputs is an important limitation to the improvement of soil fertility (manure, mineral fertilizer, leaf litter, etc.), which remains a major hindrance for food security. The agroecological cultivation of cash crops, post-harvest practices and crop-livestock integration were overall lacking in the scientific analyses, as well as the assessments of fully agroecological systems compared to individual agroecological practices or groups of practices. The report identifies three factors required for the substantial development of agroecology at the farm level: more financial support from the government, greater scientific knowledge on novel agroecological practices, and a higher market value for agroecological products.JRC.D.5-Food Securit