Multi-objective worst case optimization by means of evolutionary algorithms

Many real-world optimization problems are subject to uncertainty. A possible goal is then to find a solution which is robust in the sense that it has the best worst-case performance over all possible scenarios. However, if the problem also involves mul- tiple objectives, which scenario is “best” or “worst” depends on the user’s weighting of the different criteria, which is generally difficult to specify before alternatives are known. Evolutionary multi-objective optimization avoids this problem by searching for the whole front of Pareto optimal solutions. This paper extends the concept of Pareto dominance to worst case optimization problems and demonstrates how evolu- tionary algorithms can be used for worst case optimization in a multi-objective setting

Mean variance optimization of non-linear systems and worst-case analysis

In this paper, we consider expected value, variance and worst-case optimization of nonlinear models. We present algorithms for computing optimal expected values, and variance, based on iterative Taylor expansions. We establish convergence and consider the relative merits of policies beaded on expected value optimization and worst-case robustness. The latter is a minimax strategy and ensures optimal cover in view of the worst-case scenario(s) while the former is optimal expected performance in a stochastic setting. Both approaches are used with a macroeconomic policy model to illustrate relative performances, robustness and trade-offs between the strategies. Klassifikation: C61, E4

Worst-case shape optimization for the Dirichlet energy

We consider the optimization problem for a shape cost functional $F(\Omega,f)$ which depends on a domain $\Omega$ varying in a suitable admissible class and on a "right-hand side" $f$. More precisely, the cost functional $F$ is given by an integral which involves the solution $u$ of an elliptic PDE in $\Omega$ with right-hand side $f$; the boundary conditions considered are of the Dirichlet type. When the function $f$ is only known up to some degree of uncertainty, our goal is to obtain the existence of an optimal shape in the worst possible situation. Some numerical simulations are provided, showing the difference in the optimal shape between the case when $f$ is perfectly known and the case when only the worst situation is optimized.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figure

Mean Variance Optimization of Non-Linear Systems and Worst-case Analysis

In this paper, we consider expected value, variance and worst-case optimization of nonlinear models. We present algorithms for computing optimal expected values, and variance, based on iterative Taylor expansions. We establish convergence and consider the relative merits of policies beaded on expected value optimization and worst-case robustness. The latter is a minimax strategy and ensures optimal cover in view of the worst-case scenario(s) while the former is optimal expected performance in a stochastic setting. Both approaches are used with a macroeconomic policy model to illustrate relative performances, robustness and trade-offs between the strategies.

Crash hedging strategies and worst–case scenario portfolio optimization

Crash hedging strategies are derived as solutions of non–linear differential equations which itself are consequences of an equilibrium strategy which make the investor indifferent to uncertain (down) jumps. This is done in the situation where the investor has a logarithmic utility and where the market coefficients after a possible crash may change. It is scrutinized when and in which sense the crash hedging strategy is optimal. The situation of an investor with incomplete information is considered as well. Finally, introducing the crash horizon, an implied volatility is derived

Worst-Case Value-at-Risk of Non-Linear Portfolios

Portfolio optimization problems involving Value-at-Risk (VaR) are often computationally intractable and require complete information about the return distribution of the portfolio constituents, which is rarely available in practice. These difficulties are further compounded when the portfolio contains derivatives. We develop two tractable conservative approximations for the VaR of a derivative portfolio by evaluating the worst-case VaR over all return distributions of the derivative underliers with given first- and second-order moments. The derivative returns are modelled as convex piecewise linear or - by using a delta-gamma approximation - as (possibly non-convex) quadratic functions of the returns of the derivative underliers. These models lead to new Worst-Case Polyhedral VaR (WCPVaR) and Worst-Case Quadratic VaR (WCQVaR) approximations, respectively. WCPVaR is a suitable VaR approximation for portfolios containing long positions in European options expiring at the end of the investment horizon, whereas WCQVaR is suitable for portfolios containing long and/or short positions in European and/or exotic options expiring beyond the investment horizon. We prove that WCPVaR and WCQVaR optimization can be formulated as tractable second-order cone and semidefinite programs, respectively, and reveal interesting connections to robust portfolio optimization. Numerical experiments demonstrate the benefits of incorporating non-linear relationships between the asset returns into a worst-case VaR model.Value-at-Risk, Derivatives, Robust Optimization, Second-Order Cone Programming, Semidefinite Programming