Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Harirod-Murghab River Basin

Climate change represents one of the paramount challenges confronting humanity today. The profound impacts of phenomena such as changes in precipitation patterns, global warming, polar ice melt, floods, and the onset of untimely and extreme temperatures worldwide have instilled a sense of urgency and concern. This critical issue has been placed at the forefront of climate change. To understand the ramifications of climate change on water resources within the Harirud-Marghab River basin, an analysis of average precipitation and temperature variations (including minimum, maximum, and average values) across different time frames (annual, monthly, seasonal, and during wet and dry seasons) has been conducted using data from hydrometeorological stations in the catchment area from 1979 to 2022. the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and PCI methods were chosen as the analytical tools. The findings reveal a notable decline in annual rainfall within the Harirud-Marghab River basin, with a pronounced reduction during the winter, the basin's primary water season. Conversely, an increase in seasonal rainfall has been observed in summer and autumn. Overall, rainfall in this river basin tends to be intense, occurring on limited days throughout the year. Furthermore, a significant rise in the annual average temperature has been documented, alongside fluctuations and changes in water flow across most stations within the basin. Consequently, the surface water resources of the Harirud-Marghab River basin have experienced a substantial decrease, amounting to approximately 29% of its capacity, equivalent to a reduction of 0.98 billion cubic meters of water

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Quantity and Quality at Small Scale Watersheds

This book was inspired by the Hydrology–H030 Session of the 2019 AGU (America Geophysical Union) Fall Meeting. In recent years, simulating potential future vulnerability and sustainability of water resources due to climate change are mainly focused on global and regional scale watersheds by using climate change scenarios. These scenarios may have low resolution and may not be accurate for local watersheds. This book addresses the impacts of climate change upon water quantity and quality at small scale watersheds. Emphases are on climate-induced water resource vulnerabilities (e.g., flood, drought, groundwater depletion, evapotranspiration, and water pollution) and methodologies (e.g., computer modeling, field measurement, and management practice) employed to mitigation and adapt climate change impacts on water resources. Application implications to local water resource management are also discussed in this book

Trend analysis of precipitation and temperature in Lahaul-Spiti district, Himachal Pradesh, India

Lahaul-Spiti district is a cold desert mountain, situated in the Trans-Himalayan region. The district has the lowest population density of 2 persons/km2 because of the harsh climate and rough topography that act as barriers to population growth. Specific knowledge of climate variability in the region is limited. Hence, it is essential to study the trends of temperature and precipitation for the region and also its effects on sustainable development. The objective of this study is to investigate the variability of rainfall and temperature on a monthly, seasonal, and annual basis from 1981 to 2021. Precipitation and temperature data on a monthly, seasonal, and annual basis were acquired from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center’s POWER Project. The trends of precipitation and temperature were derived using the Mann–Kendall trend test and the slope of the regression line using Sen’s slope test. Subsequently, the maximum, minimum, mean, standard deviation (SD), and coefficient of variation (CV) of precipitation and temperature were computed to analyze the range of variation in them. The results showed a significant increasing trend in the monthly temperature of October (p-value 0.011) and December (p-value 0.05), which is below the alpha value 0.05. Similarly, an increasing trend in annual (p-value 0.000), seasonal (winter p-value 0.008 and summer p-value 0.003), and monthly (January p-value 0.030, April p-value 0.032, June p-value 0.004, July p-value 0.027, and August p-value 0.002) precipitation was observed as computed p-values are less than the significance level of alpha = 0.05. This glaciated region is most vulnerable to climate change because it is already a scarce region in the context of natural resources. Changes in the pattern of precipitation and temperature affect the socioeconomic structure of the region, affecting sectors such as agriculture, livestock, forestry, tourism, and human health. According to the perceptions of people, the temperature rise has accelerated the melting of glaciers and reduced the snow cover area. The increase in rainfall can lead to a higher incidence of mudflows, landslides, floods, and other related events, as the region is made up of sedimentary rocks. Thus, it is crucial to continuously monitor the trends in temperature and precipitation

Assessing climate trends in the Northwestern Himalayas: a comprehensive analysis of high-resolution gridded and observed datasets

Climate change poses significant challenges to the Himalayas, a region characterised by its fragile ecosystems and vulnerable communities dependent on environmental resources. Accurate climate data are crucial for understanding regional climatic variations and assessing climate change impacts, particularly in areas with limited observational networks. This study represents a pioneering effort in evaluating climatic fluctuations in the Jhelum basin, located in the North Western Himalayas, by utilising a diverse range of gridded meteorological datasets (APHRODITE, CHIRPS, CRU, and IMDAA) alongside observed climate data from the Indian Meteorological Department. The primary goal is to identify the most effective gridded climate data product for regions with limited data and to explore the potential of combining gridded data sets with observed data to understand climatic variability. Findings indicate a consistent upward trend in temperature across all datasets, with varying rates of increase. CRU records a rise of 1 °C in Tmax and 1.6 °C in Tmin, while APHRODITE shows a Tmean increase of approximately 1 °C. IMDAA reports increases in Tmax and Tmin. Observed mean annual Tmax and Tmin show net increases of 1 °C and 0.6 °C, respectively. Regarding precipitation, all datasets except IMDAA exhibit an increasing trend, contrary to observed data, which decreases from 1266 mm to 1068 mm over 40 years. CHIRPS, CRU, and APHRODITE display increasing trends, while IMDAA aligns closely with observed data but tends to overestimate precipitation by about 30%. Our research identifies IMDAA as the most suitable gridded climate data for the Jhelum basin in the North-western Himalayas. Despite some discrepancies in precipitation trends, IMDAA closely aligns with observed data, providing valuable insights for scholars and policymakers navigating climate data uncertainties in complex environments. Our findings contribute to informed decision-making and effective climate change mitigation strategies in the region

Trend assessment of changing climate patterns over the major agro-climatic zones of Sindh and Punjab

The agriculture sector, due to its significant dependence on climate patterns and water availability, is highly vulnerable to changing climate patterns. Pakistan is an agrarian economy with 30% of its land area under cultivation and 93% of its water resources being utilized for agricultural production. Therefore, the changing climate patterns may adversely affect the agriculture and water resources of the country. This study was conducted to assess the climate variations over the major agro-climatic zones of Sindh and Punjab, which serve as an important hub for the production of major food and cash crops in Pakistan. For this purpose, the climate data of 21 stations were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method for the period 1990–2022. The results obtained from the analysis revealed that, in Sindh, the mean annual temperature rose by ~0.1 to 1.4°C, with ~0.1 to 1.2°C in cotton-wheat Sindh and 0.8 to 1.4°C in rice-other Sindh during the study period. Similarly, in Punjab, the mean annual temperature increased by ~0.1 to 1.0°C, with 0.6 to 0.9°C in cotton-wheat Punjab and 0.2 to 0.6°C in rainfed Punjab. Seasonally, warming was found to be highest during the spring season. The precipitation analysis showed a rising annual precipitation trend in Sindh (+30 to +60 mm) and Punjab (+100 to 300 mm), while the monsoon precipitation increased by ~50 to 200 mm. For winter precipitation, an upward trend was found in mixed Punjab, while the remaining stations showed a declining pattern. Conclusively, the warming temperatures as found in the analysis may result in increased irrigation requirements, soil moisture desiccation, and wilting of crops, ultimately leading to low crop yield and threatening the livelihoods of local farmers. On the other hand, the increasing precipitation may favor national agriculture in terms of less freshwater withdrawals. However, it may also result in increased rainfall-induced floods inundating the crop fields and causing water logging and soil salinization. The study outcomes comprehensively highlighted the prevailing climate trends over the important agro-climatic zones of Pakistan, which may aid in devising an effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy to ensure the state of water and food security in the country

Why is the Arkavathy River drying? A multiple-hypothesis approach in a data-scarce region

Water planning decisions are only as good as our ability to explain historical trends and make reasonable predictions of future water availability. But predicting water availability can be a challenge in rapidly growing regions, where human modifications of land and waterscapes are changing the hydrologic system. Yet, many regions of the world lack the long-term hydrologic monitoring records needed to understand past changes and predict future trends. We investigated this “predictions under change” problem in the data-scarce Thippagondanahalli (TG Halli) catchment of the Arkavathy sub-basin in southern India. Inflows into TG Halli reservoir have declined sharply since the 1970s. The causes of the drying are poorly understood, resulting in misdirected or counter-productive management responses. Five plausible hypotheses that could explain the decline were tested using data from field surveys and secondary sources: (1) changes in rainfall amount, seasonality and intensity; (2) increases in temperature; (3) groundwater extraction; (4) expansion of eucalyptus plantations; and (5) fragmentation of the river channel. Our results suggest that groundwater pumping, expansion of eucalyptus plantations and, to a lesser extent, channel fragmentation are much more likely to have caused the decline in surface flows in the TG Halli catchment than changing climate

Holistically understanding and enhancing the adaptation of remote high-mountain communities to hydrometeorological extremes and associated geohazards in a changing climate

In rapidly warming high-mountain environments, extreme precipitation events commonly generate extensive slope failures, flash floods and glacier-related hazards, which can be devastating to resident communities. This interdisciplinary project seeks to holistically understand human engagement with the severe risks arising from such geohazards in the wake of recent climatic change and also contemporaneous processes of social change. Focusing on remote rural communities in two monsoon-affected river basins in the Indian High Himalaya, the study uses extended ethnographic fieldwork, qualitative local-scale geomorphological observations, and quantitative hydroclimatological analyses to assess current and future environmental risks as well as local understandings and cultural models of those risks, community resilience, and adaptive capacity. The findings are synthesised to devise a strategic framework for culturally responsive action to protect and improve lives and livelihoods. // The dissertation places ontologically disparate local/traditional and Western/modern scientific understandings of climate-related geohazards into the context of each other, allowing the unique insights offered by each to be appreciated against the backdrop of the other. It uses shared geographies to integrate the seemingly irreconcilable knowledge systems, both spatially and conceptually. The practical outcome of this epistemic synthesis is that it enriches earth science-based hazard assessments with ethnographically robust emic perspectives on geomorphic processes, providing external development practitioners, planners and policymakers with a genuine sense of lived experiences of change and extremes in the physical environment. // Much of the ethnography intensively examines the fascinating dimension of indigenous geographical knowledges that transcends the materiality of the environment and the hazards that operate in it. This includes explorations of folkloristic models of landscape dynamics that lend form and spatiality to traditional metaphysical convictions, spiritualities, moralities, and emotionalities associated with geohazards operating within a certain social change context. By engaging with these commonly overlooked but behaviourally potent aspects of human-environment relationships, the epistemology of hazards developed in the dissertation can aid in developing more culturally compatible, and therefore potentially more efficacious, strategies for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in remote high-mountain settings across the Himalaya and elsewhere in the Global South

Journal of Agrometeorology

Not AvailableJournal of Agrometeorology Not Availabl

The adaptability of empirical equations to calculate potential evapotranspiration and trend analysis of hydroclimatological parameters for agricultural areas in Newfoundland

Calculation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) has been problematic in Newfoundland (NL) due to the lack of measured data. Therefore, PET data obtained from the Pacific Field Corn Association for St John’s, NL was compared against five empirical PET calculation equations (i.e. (i) radiation-based Priestley-Taylor (PT), and Makkink (M), (ii) temperature-based Hargreaves-Samani (HS), and Turc (T), and (iii) location-based Hamon (H)). Evaluation based on the results concluded that the HS equation would be appropriate to calculate PET in NL. Further calibrations and validations were done to modify the HS to better calculate PET for the growing season (May-October) in NL. The modifications improved the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and co-efficient of determination (R2) of the validated data. Trend assessment carried out using Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Mann-Kendal (MK) tests indicated that both methods were in par with each other. Most of the significant positive trends of monthly total precipitation (0.375-2.210 mm/month/year) were available for September and October. Positive trends for minimum and maximum temperatures were found mostly concentrated within August and September with increments ranging from 0.015 to 0.062 ºC/month/year. PET trends of magnitudes up to 0.011 mm/month/year were observed mostly within September and October. Total water balance did not show as many positive trends as other parameters considered. However, the available positive trends (ranging from 0.018 to 0.076 mm/month/year) were also focused mostly within September. As a conclusion, the HS equation with modifications and error margins (where necessary) can be used to calculate PET accurately for the growing season in NL, and positive trends are observed mostly within the later periods of the growing season. The results of this study could be used in consideration of agricultural expansion, selecting cropping systems and water management systems of NL in future

Drought Risk Management in Reflect Changing of Meteorological Conditions

Droughts are one of the main extreme meteorological, and hydrological phenomena, which influence both the functioning of ecosystems, and many important sectors of human economic activity. Throughout the world, various direct changes in meteorological, and climatic conditions, such as: air temperature, humidity, and evapotranspiration can be observed. They have a significant influence upon the shaping of the phenomenon of drought. Land cover and land use can also be indirect factors influencing evapotranspiration, and, by the same token, the water balance in the water catchment area. They can also influence the course of the process of the drought. The observed climate change, manifested mainly by increases in temperature, in turn, influencing evapotranspiration, may cause intensification in terms of both the degree and frequency of droughts. Droughts related to changes in the hydrological regime, and to the decrease in water resources. Its results can be observed in various sectors, related, among others, to a demand for water for people, agriculture and the Industry. It can also prove problematic for water ecosystems. To reflect the aforementioned information, a reasonable drought risk management is indispensable in order to ease the water demand related problems in various sectors of human activity. This book presents original research on various drought indicators, modern measurement techniques used, among others, for monitoring and predicting droughts, drought indicator trends, the impact of insufficient precipitation on human activity in the context of climate change, and examples of modern solutions devised to prevent water shortages