The futures of rural migration in sub-Saharan Africa: A literature review and exploratory essay

In a context where 200 million more people are expected to live in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) alone by 2050, the question of the futures of SSA rural migration is of crucial importance in a region which so far as remained essentially rural, in spite of a growing urbanization process. The first aim of this paper is to undertake a comprehensive review of the literature on the futures of rural migration in SSA. Drawing from 37 studies it provides a picture of anticipated drivers and migration patterns. It shows also that to our knowledge, rural migration in SSA is still largely an underexplored field of research. The second aim of this paper is therefore to provide some more insights about this question developing an essay drawing from general knowledge about population flows and specific scenario work connecting alternative global world orders and plausible scenarios of rural transformation into three alternative narratives about rural migration in SSA. This anticipatory work, with no predictive intention, provides some elements of thought regarding future migration patterns and briefly discuss governance-related implications

Foundation Focus (Issue 17): Social Dialogue - For a Competitive, Fair and Modern Europe

Social dialogue is a key part of the European social model, with European social dialogue having been launched at the historic Val Duchesse meeting 30 years ago. However, since then, established approaches to social dialogue in Europe have been challenged by industrial and social change. Ongoing shifts towards greater decentralisation of collective bargaining have resulted in a polarisation of Member States and the crisis has resulted in an increased trend towards unilateral decisionmaking by governments at the expense of social partners’ autonomy. In response to these challenges, the new Juncker Commission has set about a ‘relaunching’ of social dialogue. This issue of Foundation Focus looks at the current state of play of social dialogue in Europe, focusing in particular on Eurofound’s extensive research findings from both its Europe-wide surveys and its observatories

The Structure of Employment, Globalization, and Economic Crises: Rethinking Contemporary Employment Dynamics with a Focus on the U.S. and Japan

This paper explores the intersections between the current trajectory of globalization, changes to the structure of employment, and policies for maintaining opportunities for decent employment. There are numerous outcomes of these interactions, including higher levels of open unemployment, growth of informal employment, downward pressure on the returns to labor, and a redistribution of risk from capital to labor. Common factors have affected labor demand and labor supply in a range of countries, but specific employment outcomes are dependent on domestic institutions and structural realities. Within this broader framework, the paper examines changing patterns of employment in Japan and the U.S. in recent years, including the experience of both countries with regard to financial bubbles and subsequent crises.J21, O43, P48

Alternative futures of rural areas in the EU

In this study alternative futures of rural areas in the EU are explored. For this purpose, a comparative analysis of seven scenario studies of rural areas in the EU was conducted. Often, these scenario studies constructed a baseline scenario - derived from an extrapolation of past trends and policies - and a number of alternative scenarios with different degrees of policy intervention. The time horizon in the scenario studies varies from 2020 to 2035. By focusing on a number of main drivers and responses, we were able to distinguish six distinct alternative futures of rural areas in the EU

The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition

Now in its 11th edition, The Global Risks Report 2016 draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade. The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. Warming climate is likely to raise this year's temperature to 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, 60 million people, equivalent to the world's 24th largest country and largest number in recent history, are forcibly displaced, and crimes in cyberspace cost the global economy an estimated US$445 billion, higher than many economies' national incomes. In this context, the Reportcalls for action to build resilience – the "resilience imperative" – and identifies practical examples of how it could be done.The Report also steps back and explores how emerging global risks and major trends, such as climate change, the rise of cyber dependence and income and wealth disparity are impacting already-strained societies by highlighting three clusters of risks as Risks in Focus. As resilience building is helped by the ability to analyse global risks from the perspective of specific stakeholders, the Report also analyses the significance of global risks to the business community at a regional and country-level

Applying Gender Action Plan Lessons: A Three-Year Road Map for Gender Mainstreaming (2011- 2013)

This transition plan identifies key lessons from the implementation of the World Bank Group action plan, Gender Equality as Smart Economics (GAP), and sets out a proposal to improve the performance on Gender and Development. It seeks to strengthen the implementation of the Bank?s gender policy and places special emphasis on improving attention to gender in Bank instruments (CASs). It covers World Bank Group (WBG) operations from 2011 to 2013, and was produced on a request by the World Bank Board of Executive Directors. A GAP Three-year Progress Report accompanies this plan

The Great Recession of 2008-2009: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses

Starting in mid-2007, the global financial crisis quickly metamorphosed from the bursting of the housing bubble in the US to the worst recession the world has witnessed for over six decades. Through an in-depth review of the crisis in terms of the causes, consequences and policy responses, this paper identifies four key messages. Firstly, contrary to widely-held perceptions during the boom years before the crisis, the paper underscores that the global economy was by no means as stable as suggested, while at the same time the majority of the world’s poor had benefited insufficiently from stronger economic growth. Secondly, there were complex and interlinked factors behind the emergence of the crisis in 2007, namely loose monetary policy, global imbalances, misperception of risk and lax financial regulation. Thirdly, beyond the aggregate picture of economic collapse and rising unemployment, this paper stresses that the impact of the crisis is rather diverse, reflecting differences in initial conditions, transmission channels and vulnerabilities of economies, along with the role of government policy in mitigating the downturn. Fourthly, while the recovery phase has commenced, a number of risks remain that could derail improvements in economies and hinder efforts to ensure that the recovery is accompanied by job creation. These risks pertain in particular to the challenges of dealing with public debt and continuing global imbalances.global financial crisis, unemployment, macroeconomic policy, labour market policy

Foreign Direct Investment in Times of Global Economic Crisis: Spotlight on New Europe

This paper examines the potential impact of the economic crisis, which started in 2008, on the dynamics global foreign direct investment, especially in the new member states of the European Union. The global economic crisis that hit the world in 2008 has forced scholars and policy makers alike to rethink their approaches to the global economy, in particular to financial markets (including stock exchanges and portfolio investment). It can be hypothesised that the crisis has been particularly devastating because it has resulted from the coincidence of three factors: a cyclical downturn in the world economy; a structural change that hit certain industries which used to be star performers in the global economy (especially the automotive industry); and the collapse of the previous model of the financial industry based on excesses. This paper asks how this crisis affects foreign direct investment flows, with special attention being paid to the question of which locations are set to lose the least and which ones are set to lose the most. In this respect, particular attention is paid to the activities of subsidiaries of multinational enterprises. These subsidiaries can follow different scenarios as a response to the global economic turmoil, including a reorganization of their production systems, and a reduction or closure of activities that are deemed to be less necessary for the continuation of activities. Finally, the paper examines the policy implications of the crisis. It challenges the view that rising economic nationalism (in the form of protecting one location against locations in other countries) would be the right answer to the problems created by corporate restructurings.foreign direct investment, credit crunch, foreign subsidiaries, Europe

No. 1: Migration and Development in Africa: An Overview

Migration is clearly a major issue across Africa. Indeed, migration – both within countries and across borders – can be seen as an integral part of labour markets and livelihoods across much of the continent for at least the last century. Over time, and in different places, migration has taken a number of different forms. It has cut across class and skill boundaries, and exists in widely different geographical and demographic contexts. Migration represents an important livelihood strategy for poor households seeking to diversify their sources of income, but is also characteristic of the better off, and indeed of many African elites. In practice, however, the link between migration and poverty is often viewed more negatively. It is assumed across much of the continent that it is poverty that forces poor people to migrate, rather than migration being a potential route out of poverty. The poor are also generally seen as those worst affected by conflict-induced migration, itself a prominent feature in Africa. The movement of skilled and/or wealthy Africans is also generally viewed negatively (e.g. there is long-standing concern on the African continent with the impact of the ‘brain drain’ of African professionals). Only slowly, and in relatively few quarters, is understanding emerging of the potentially positive role that migration itself can play in reducing poverty, or of the possibilities for ‘mobilisation’ of the African diaspora in the fight against poverty. Meanwhile, public policy remains a long way from building effectively on such understanding. The aim of this study is to synthesise existing research on migration in Africa, and its relationship to development policy. The report focuses on the relationship between migration, poverty and pro-poor development policy. Pro-poor policy is taken here to mean policies that are context-specific, listen and react to poor people’s voices, and/or seek to assist poor people to become less vulnerable and build up their income and assets. Government health and education policies might not be considered intrinsically pro-poor, but become so where they are targeted at widening access to health and education services, and especially basic health and education services (e.g. primary care, vaccination campaigns, primary schooling), or at responding to the specific needs of the poor. Pro-poor policies might also seek to identify and support poor people’s livelihoods, through the promotion of social protection mechanisms (ranging from pensions, health insurance, maternity benefit and unemployment benefits to food aid and other social assistance) or enhancement and enforcement of poor people’s rights. In turn, our focus is not only on the policies of developing country governments, but also on those of non-government and intergovernmental organisations, and of donor nations. In terms of migration, the study covers both international and internal migration. In the sections that follow, issues are dealt with first in relation to sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, and then in detail for three regions – West Africa, East Africa and Southern Africa. The sections on Africa as a whole, and on West and East Africa were completed by researchers at the Sussex Centre for Migration Research at the University of Sussex, whilst the section on Southern Africa was written by researchers at the Southern African Migration Project