Historical parallels, Ebola virus disease and cholera: understanding community distrust and social violence with epidemics

In the three West African countries most affected by the recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, resistance to public health measures contributed to the startling speed and persistence of this epidemic in the region. But how do we explain this resistance, and how have people in these communities understood their actions? By comparing these recent events to historical precedents during Cholera outbreaks in Europe in the 19th century we show that these events have not been new to history or unique to Africa. Community resistance must be analysed in context and go beyond simple single-variable determinants. Knowledge and respect of the cultures and beliefs of the afflicted is essential for dealing with threatening disease outbreaks and their potential social violence

Disturbance indicators for time series reconstruction and marine ecosystem health impact assessment

A systematic reconstruction of Multiple Marine Ecological Disturbances (MMEDs) involving disease occurrence, morbidity and mortality events has been undertaken so that a taxonomy of globally distributed marine disturbance types can be better quantified and common forcing factors identified. Combined disturbance data include indices of morbidity, mortality and disease events affecting humans, marine invertebrates, flora and wildlife populations. In the search for the best disturbance indicators of ecosystem change, the unifying solution for joining data from disparate fields is to organize data into space/time/topic hierarchies that permit convergence of data due to shared and appropriate scaling. The scale of the data selects for compatible methodologies, leading to better data integration, dine series reconstruction and the discovery of new relationships. Information technology approaches designed to assist this process include bibliographic keyword searches, data-mining, data-modeling and geographic information system design. Expert consensus, spatial, temporal, categorical and statistical data reduction methods are used to reclassify thousands of independent anomaly observations into eight functional impact groups representing anoxic-hypoxic, biotoxin-exposure, disease, keystone-chronic, mass-lethal, new-novel-invasive, physically forced and trophic-magnification disturbances. Data extracted from the relational database and Internet (http://www.heedmd.org) geographic information system demonstrate non-random patterns relative to expected dependencies. When data are combined they better reflect response to exogenous forcing factors at larger scales (e.g. North Atlantic and Southern Ocean Oscillation index scales) than is apparent without grouping. New hypotheses have been generated linking MMEDs to climate system forcing , variability and changes within the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. A more general global survey known collectively as the Health Ecological and Economic Dimensions (HEED) project demonstrates the potential application of the methodology to the Baltic Sea and other large marine ecosystems. The rescue of multi-decadal climatic, oceanographic, fisheries economic, and public health anomaly data combined with MMED data provides a tool to help researchers create regional disturbance regimes to illustrate disturbance impact. A recommendation for a central data repository is proposed to better coordinate the many data observers, resource managers, and agencies collecting pieces of marine disturbance information needed for monitoring ecosystem condition

Multiple Potential Payers and Sovereign Bond Prices

Sovereign bonds are usually priced under the assumption that only the sovereign issuer may be responsible of their repayment. In some cases however, bondholders may legitimately expect to be repaid by more than one agent. For example, when a country breaks-up, successor states may agree to recognize their responsibility for part of the debt. Other extreme events, such as repudiations, may lead (and have led) bondholders to consider several bailout candidates at the same point in time. This paper first discusses the theoretical financial implications stemming from an infrequent and challenging situation, namely the existence of multiple potential payers. Then, through a historical precedent, the 1918 Russian repudiation, the paper confirms that the existence of multiple potential payers has a diversification effect which lowers the volatility of the bond price and increases its value. These results are strengthened by a comparison with a closely related standard case of default.Sovereign bonds; Repudiation; Default; Portfolio diversification; Multiple payers; Russia; Romania; Financial history.

Aliens en route : European transmigration through Britain, 1836-1914

This thesis discusses the agencies, transport systems, and infrastructure that enabled more than 3.15 million Europeans to emigrate to the United States, Canada, and South Africa through Britain between 1836 and 1914. Rather than travelling directly from the European mainland, these transmigrants broke their journeys by travelling to Britain where they boarded another vessel that conveyed them across the Atlantic. The control that Britain exerted over both the short-sea and long-haul passenger routes thus involved was as important to British maritime commerce as similar controls over freight or direct long-haul passenger routes to the far-flung corners of the British Empire. However the crucial significance of the transmigrant business to the British merchant marine has been largely overlooked in recent historiography, and it is this lacuna that the present dissertation seeks to redress.The study is split into three sections. The first part quantifies the patterns of the transmigrant business, answering questions such as: what were the origins of the migrants and what routes did they use to reach Britain? When did they come? Where in Britain did they land, where were they bound, and where did they re-embark? Having charted these issues, the thesis turns in the second section to investigate how the transmigrant business developed and evolved, paying particular attention to the factors that conditioned the market throughout the 78 year period. Finally, the thesis examines the significance of the transmigrant business to British ports serving as conduits for the passenger movement, to the companies involved in transporting the aliens, and to the migrants themselves.By exploring these issues this thesis has made a significant contribution to migrant and maritime historiography in the following ways. First, it has broadened the chronological and geographical focus of migrancy back from the 1880s to the 1830s and stressed Scandinavian as well as Central/East European movements. Second, it has demonstrated how European transmigrants were as important to British shipping companies as were British emigrants seeking to settle in Britain's overseas dominions. Third, immigration to Britain has been incorrectly conceptualised because historians and social commentators fail to take account of the onward movement of aliens arriving in Britain and assume instead that most were permanent settlers. Fourth, the primacy of Britain's maritime links to the United States was more important for the passenger business than has been previously acknowledged.Finally, this study disproves theories by immigrant historians that centres of alien settlement across Northern Britain arose because they were situated along the transmigrant corridor between the Humber and Mersey. In reality many of the trains carrying transmigrants never passed through the towns and cities where large-scale immigration took place. By combining a mixture of global, national and local studies, and a longer chronology, this thesis offers an important intersection of transport and maritime studies that shows how transmigration has been under appreciated by both maritime and migrants historians alike

Water

Meta-analysis can be a powerful tool for demonstrating the applicability of a concept beyond the context of individual clinical trials and observational studies, including exploration of effects across different subgroups. Meta-analysis avoids Simpson's paradox, in which a consistent effect in constituent trials is reversed when results are simply pooled. Meta-analysis in critical care medicine is made more complicated, however, by the heterogeneous nature of critically ill patients and the contexts within which they are treated. Failure to properly adjust for this heterogeneity risks missing important subgroup effects in, for example, the interaction of treatment with varying levels of baseline risk. When subgroups are defined by characteristics that vary within constituent trials (such as age) rather than features constant within each trial (such as drug dose), there is the additional risk of incorrect conclusions due to the ecological fallacy. The present review explains these problems and the strategies by which they are overcome

Ballasted: Stabilizing Ships and Destabilizing Seas

This article critically assesses the history of ballast water as a vector for invasive species, management, current regulations and technological advancements in water treatment. The transport of invasive species is a global threat to ecosystems as well as economies. Ballast water, used to stabilize ships has been implicated in the spread of invasive species, including zebra mussels and harmful algal species. In 2017, the International Convention for the Control of and Management of Ship’s Ballast water and Sediments, in an effort to mitigate the spread of invasive species was entered into force. However, at the same time legislation was presented in the United States which would decrease ballast water regulation. The Clean Water Act exemption for ballast water discharge, as well as the multitude of regulatory bodies responsible for ballast water management, is counterproductive to combating the spread of invasive species. The author concludes that without a no viable organism policy will fail to halt the spread of ballast water transported invasive species. The US should adopt a robust ballast water management strategy as well as take on a leadership role in an effort to mitigate ballast water related threats to native species and global economies