A framework for cyber security risk modeling and mitigation in smart grid communication and control systems.

ThesisThe objective of this research was to present a risk analysis methodology for enhancing cyber security and defending the crucial parts of Zambia's electric power grid. By building on the basic concerns of risk assessment and management and using a Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM) as a research methodology, this framework tried to advance the current risk analysis debates on the electric power system. By conducting a review of the literature and providing a stochastic risk-based framework, this thesis stresses the need for a coordinated cybersecurity effort toward developing strategies and actions conducive to defending the nation against attacks on the electric power infrastructure. We used PIPE (Platform-Independent Petri Net Editor) and Great Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) to model and analyze the GSPN attack model of the SCADA network. Additionally, it enables the user to animate the model through direct user manipulations or the arbitrary firing of transitions. These instruments' analysis environments include a variety of modules, including steady-state, steady-space, and GSPN analyses. Fifty simulations of the designed GSPN model of the DoS attack were performed using various starting random firings of 100, 300, 500, 700, 1000, and 1200. The transition triggering rates of the Defense Scenario’s firewall, password, and combined SPN models, respectively. The results show that the net probability of being attacked with only a password as an intrusion protection mechanism was 95.59 percent, compared to 95.11 percent for the firewall model, and 78.902 percent for the combined model. This indication demonstrates that given a firewall and a password as a combined intrusion protection mechanism, the probability of being hit by a cyber-attack is relatively high. To enable proactive cybersecurity and threat intelligence sharing for the digitalized power infrastructure, it can be said that there is a need for a general cybersecurity framework. In contrast to previous efforts on AGC cyber physical security, we model AGC false data injection attacks (FDIA) and explore the potential vulnerabilities that could result from ignoring them. First, we showed that the AGC's behavior and, consequently, the control decision, differ if the FDIA is taken into consideration. We demonstrated that the linear AGC models that do not account for FDIA do not offer adequate protection against cyber-physical attacks that work in the nonlinear region of the system. Second, we suggested and put into practice a two-stage strategy based on LSTM to identify and reduce the compromised signals to handle these threats. Its better performance in attack detection with good statistical metrics is confirmed by the examination of the detection model. The mitigation model can also improve the system's behavior and dramatically lower the RMSE of the attacked signals. The results obtained were later compared with findings from other studies such as PRIME (PNNL cybeR physIcal systeMs tEstbed), and edge-based multi-level anomaly detection framework for SCADA networks named EDMAN

Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz Band 1: Szenarien und Maßnahmen zur Minderung von CO2_{2}-Emissionen in Deutschland bis zum Jahre 2005

Grundlage für die Formulierung der Klimavorsorgepolitik durch die Bundesregierung waren u.a. die Ergebnisse des umfassenden Studienprogramms der Enquete-Kommission "Vorsorge zum Schutz der Erdatmosphäre" sowie zahlreiche andere wissenschaftliche Studien, die sich sowohl mit der gesamten Fragestellung als auch mit Teilaspekten auseinandersetzten. Ein Instrument, mit dem alternative Minderungsstrategien systematisch analysiert und bewertet werden konnten, fehlte zu diesem Zeitpunkt. Bereits im zweiten Beschluß der Bundesregierung zur Minderung der energiebedingten CO$_{2}$-Emissionen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland vom 07. November 1990 kündigte die Bundesregierung ein solches Instrumentarium an. Unter dem Namen IKARUS wurde im Auftrag des BMBF ein lnstrument, mit dem das nationale Energieversorgungssystem als Hauptverursacher für CO$_{2}$-Emissionen erfaßt werden kann, in den Jahren 1990 - 1995 entwickelt. Unter Nutzung von IKARUS haben das Forschungszentrum Jülich, das Deutsche Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin, das Fraunhofer Institut für Systemtechnik und lnnovationsforschung, Karlsruhe, sowie das Öko-Institut Berlin im Auftrag des Bundesumweltministeriums und des Umweltbundesamtes das Projekt "Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz" durchgeführt. Aufgabe dieses Projektes waren die Entwicklung eines Referenzszenarios sowie die Analyse der CO$_{2}$-Minderungspotentiale, die durch die bis zum 29. September 1994 vom Bundeskabinett verabschiedeten Klimaschutzmaßnahmen bis zum Jahre 2005 erschlossen werden. Darüber hinaus sollten Empfehlungen für zusätzliche Maßnahmen gegeben werden, mit denen das nationale [...

Flow chart of the Proposed Framework.

<p>After reviewing literature, <i>SEIR</i> model is selected and a new <i>SEIDQR(S/I)</i> is proposed by modifying SEIR model. <i>SPN</i> of the proposed model is constructed and analysed in <i>Snoopy</i> and <i>Charlie</i>, after which the system is converted to <i>CTMC</i> and specifications are encoded in CSL for quantitative analysis in <i>PRISM</i> model checker.</p

The states and the transitions of <i>SEIDQR(S/I)</i> model.

<p>The rectangles represent the compartments and the arrows represent the movement of hosts from one compartment to another. The labels on the rectangles indicate the type of compartment i.e. susceptible, exposed, infectious, delayed, quarantined and recovered. The labels on the arrows indicate the rate of transmission of hosts from one compartment to another.</p