On the history and use of some standard statistical models

This paper tries to tell the story of the general linear model, which saw the light of day 200 years ago, and the assumptions underlying it. We distinguish three principal stages (ignoring earlier more isolated instances). The model was first proposed in the context of astronomical and geodesic observations, where the main source of variation was observational error. This was the main use of the model during the 19th century. In the 1920's it was developed in a new direction by R.A. Fisher whose principal applications were in agriculture and biology. Finally, beginning in the 1930's and 40's it became an important tool for the social sciences. As new areas of applications were added, the assumptions underlying the model tended to become more questionable, and the resulting statistical techniques more prone to misuse.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/193940307000000419 the IMS Collections (http://www.imstat.org/publications/imscollections.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Explaining Government Spending: a Cointegration Approach

Based on a comprehensive theoretical model we investigate the determinants of government spending. Besides GDP, commonly associated with either Walra´s law or Keynesian macro stabilization policies, we consider some variables identified with the public choice approach, namely median voters, pressure groups and the ideology of the government in power. These other variables are women, elderly population and population occupied in agriculture. The model is tested empirically using Johansen´s cointegration technique for the cases of Australia and Canada with data on general government expenditure, thus covering all government sectors, including social security. For the most part, we find long-run relationships among the variables and with the expected signs.Public Economics, Public Choice, Government spending, Interest groups

Sir John McKenzie and the origins and growth of the Department of Agriculture, 1891-1900 : thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in History at Massey University

Although two theses have examined John McKenzie's activities as Minister of Lands in a fairly detailed way, they have virtually ignored his actions as Minister of Agriculture. This one-sided concentration has meant that we know very little about McKenzie's achievements as Minister of Agriculture, even though they were of equal importance in the short term and have proven to be more important in the long term. Agricultural legislation passed by John McKenzie was as creative as his land laws and made up of many more statutes. This proliferation of laws relating to agricultural matters was largerly explained by the fact that major problems were covered by separate statutes, whereas McKenzie and acts and W.P. Reeves' labour laws were concentrated in one or two massive acts, which were extraordinarily comprehensive. Nevertheless, the agricultural laws passed by John McKenzie were on a similar scale to his land acts and to the labour legislation of Reeves, in terms of legislative output, legislative energy and powers created for the government. Furthermore, the administration of the Department of Agriculture affected nearly as many people as did the running of the Department of Lands and Survey. Today, much of the agricultural legislation introduced and passed by John McKenzie still has a direct effect on our lives, both in the city and on the farm. Town milk supply continues to be examined by employees of the Department of Agriculture; cowsheds are still regularly inspected by government officials; sheep are dipped within certain time limits, as they were in the 1890's; and slaughtering has been carried out in licensed abbatoirs under the supervision of government inspectors ever since 1900. On the other hand, lease in perpetuity is now obsolete and only of interest in school text books and learned journals. Obviously, than, a study of John McKenzie's actions as Minister Of Agriculture is long overdue. The urgent need for such an investigation and the stringent word limits placed upon the exercise, has meant that the thesis is almost exclusively concerned with John McKenzie as Minister of Agriculture. It only looks at his work as Minister of Lands in a general way an an attempt to explain the formulation of his agricultural policies and the development of his distinctive ministerial style. The thesis concentrates on the period 1891-1900 when John McKonzic held ministerial office, but research was begun from around 1878 when the first Sheep Act to be passed by the central government was introduced. This work on earlier developments has proven to be valuable, for it has clearly shown that John McKenzie was not an innovator but rather a consolidator. The thesis also moves into some tentative speculation after 1900, in an attempt to assess the political implications of John Mckenzie's agricultural policies. [From Preface

World Plant Collection Placed under Intergovernmental Auspices

News release announcing that the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) signed agreements to place the international plant genetic resourcescollections housed in 12 CGIAR Centers under the auspices of the Rome-base United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The move gives legal weight to the CGIAR’ s commitment to hold the collections in trust for the international community. The agreements were signed by CGIAR Chairman Ismail Serageldin on behalf of the international research Centers of the CGIAR, and by Mohamed S. Zehni, Director of the FAO Research and Technology Development Division, on behaIf of FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf

RESEARCH OF THE WEALTH AND FINANCIAL SOURCE OF THE AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES

After 10 years, follow up 90’s, number of company’s jump in increase, and so after the fritter of implements, the venture interests decrease continually in the agriculture from 2001. In nation-wide level, correlated to 2000, in 2003 the number of company’s decrease by 7% (6). In the county Intensity of the bad effects of weather (drought, flood) cut down on the increase of agricultural enterprises, also in the future. General cause of the shift ratio between the implements and current assets, which serve the enterprise more than one year, is the subsidence of the rate of resource. Inside the tangible assets the ratio of investments in 4.5%, although in rate equal to tangible assets, it shows more than 60% increase according to 2000. To achieve the investments, the companies use own and foreign source, the latter can feel in the long-term indebtedness. The enterprises have to attend such a craggy increase because it may cause liquidity problems. Enterprises obligated to use their free source toward pay back their obligations (5). For the smooth operation the own liquid sources of enterprises are low (indexes of liquidity and indebtedness) so for finance the operation they need credit and encouragement. Encouragement’s can cause blasts in long term if the effects of these encouragements do not improve the efficiency and do not keep the environment (interest subsidy, guarantee). Joining to the European Union had not get any considerable effect on the development of financial index. Our Union membership impinge on the financial conditions of agriculture enterprises needs a large research.agricultural enterprises, financial index, liquidity, indebtedness, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance,

Weather-Based Crop Insurance Contracts for African Countries

Weather constitutes the major source for production risk in agriculture. Weather index can be used construct crop insurance that demand less information and can avoid moral hazard and adverse selection problems. Based on mean-variance model, theoretical results on the optimal insurance coverage and its impact from risk preference, basis risk, and premium loading are derived, which are quite consistent to the empirical results from the expected utility model. Using South Africa corn data, we investigate growers' demand and efficiency of alternative hypothetical weather index crop insurance programs. In contrast to previous work that suggests that a single-variable weather index suffices to develop an insurance contract, this study shows that the insured grower achieves a higher utility from multivariate weather indices. The most important single weather index we found in the study area was GDD, and the combination of rainfall and either temperature or GDD outperformed the single variable indices by a large margin. Depending on the growers risk preference, s/he may choose to buy o r offer such insurance for sale if the price is not actuarially fair. The risk protection value of weather-indexed-insurance follows the predictive power of the index on yield in general, though not exactly.Risk and Uncertainty, C51, C61, G22, Q14,

Possibilities and limitations of protein supply in organic poultry and pig production

It is one of the general recommendations in animal nutrition that the diet should be formulated according to the specific requirements of animals at the various stages of their development. To which degree the farmer can adapt the nutrient supply to the specific requirements of the animals depends primarily on the production goal and on the availability of nutrient resources. This report gives a general introduction to the present situation for dietary protein supply to poultry and pig production in relation to the principles for organic agriculture and husbandry production. Furthermore it includes partly literature based on research from conventional animal production, as the requirements on the level of the animals are not different in both systems. Moreover, there only few research projects of organic production systems available. This report is primarily focussing on the question whether a nutrient supply of 100% organic feed can and should be realised. In this context, it is not possible to cover all aspects in detail as the report cannot replace a textbook. The main emphasis is laid on a coherent argumentation based on the leading ideas of organic agriculture. Concerning further relevant aspects it is referred to the report ”Supply and demand for concentrated organic feed in the EU in 2002 and 2003” by Susanne Padel as part of the same EU-project: ‘Research to support the EU-regulation on Organic Agriculture’ (www.organic-revision.org) and to the project “Availability of organically reared livestock” (S. Gomez, JRC, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, this study is expected to be completed in November 2005). In conventional animal production, a nutrient supply that is closely related to the requirements is an important tool in the performance-oriented production (FLACHOWSKY, 1998). The objective of animal nutrition is to adapt the nutrient supply as accurately as possible to the requirements resulting from maintenance and performance need. Soybean meal, due to the high protein content and high protein quality, has developed into the most important protein source in the nutrition of monogastric animals. Additionally, synthetic amino acids (DL-methionine) and industrial amino acids (produced from microbial fermentation, L-amino acids) are used to balance the supply of essential amino acids. While the use of soybean meal and synthetic amino acids is normal practice in conventional animal production, the Council-Regulation No. 2092/91, amended by Council Regulation No. 1804/99 on organic livestock production bans the use of chemically extracted soybean meal and synthetic amino acids on organic farms as livestock must be fed primarily on organically produced feedstuffs (Annex 1, paragraph 4.2). By way of a derogation from paragraph 4.2, for a transitional period expiring on 24 August 2005, the use of a limited proportion of non-organic feedstuffs is authorised where farmers can show to the satisfaction of the inspection body that they are unable to obtain feed exclusively from organic production (paragraph 4.8). The derogation, although with a declining percentage of non-organic feedstuffs over the next years, has been prolonged in July 2005. The preferable use of home-grown feedstuffs and limitations in the choice of boughtin feedstuffs can be the cause of considerable variation in the composition of the diets, and considerably restrict the possibilities for the adaptation of the feed ration to the specific requirements. Due to the limited availability of essential amino acids in particular, there is concern that nutritional imbalances encountered in practice might lead to deteriorating animal health and welfare. On the other hand, there is also the concern that allowing conventional feedstuffs to be fed in organic livestock production will result in intensification of production. The intensification might cause the same problems in organic production as conventional production already shows (animal health problems, risk of residues and GM contamination etc.). Thus, the use of non-organic feedstuffs may have a damaging effect on consumer confidence in organic products of animal origin. In the following the nutritional-physiological effects of a variation in protein supply with respect to growth performance and protein accretion in broilers, turkeys, laying hens, and pigs are examined by means of a literature review. Additionally, the potential effects of the protein content in the diet on product quality, animal health and environmental damage are addressed. It is the aim of the report to provide an overview of the many different aspects of the protein supply in organic poultry and pig production. Many different aspects are taken into account to elaborate possibilities to handle the use of organic and non-organic feedstuffs with respect to the objectives and framework conditions of organic livestock production. However, due to the complex interactions not all aspects can be covered. There is room and need for explanation and for further research

Roles of sperm serine proteases in mammalian fertilization

Fertilization is a unique process whereby two gametes from female(egg) and male(sperm) unite to produce offspring whose genetic makeup is deifferent from both parents. The bisexual ...Thesis (Ph. D. in Agriculture)--University of Tsukuba, (A), no. 2282, 2000.3.24TITLEPAGE,ABBREVIATIONS,CONTENTS -- GENERAL INTRODUCTION -- CHAPTER I. Acrosin Accelerates the Dispersal of Sperm Acrosomal Proteins during Acrosome Reaction -- CHAPTER II. p-Aminobenzamidine-sensitive acrosomal protease(s) other than acrosin serve the sperm penetration of the egg zone pellucida in mouse -- CHAPTER III. Difference of Acrosomal Serine Protease System between Mouse and Other Rodent Sperm -- GENERAL CONCLUSION -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- REFERENCE

L’Agriculture, l’État et la stagflation mondiale : la politique canadienne depuis 1970

The development of Canadian agriculture was founded (similarly to that of Australia, New Zealand, Argentina and Uruguay) on the basis of an economy with dominion-wide referents. To begin, this article ascertains the general characteristics of that System. It then considers the System 's evolution in Canada since 1970. The increase in the world prices of energy (of which Canada is a net exporter) and the reorganization of the national transportation network are altering the roles of the different provinces with regard to agricultural production and are leading to a dismantling of the Boards, which were until now the only intermediary with foreign markets. Ultimately these trends point to an overall reorganization of the Canadian agricultural System

Alternative versus conventional attitudes in higher agricultural education

From radical positions it is argued that it will take paradigmatic transformations to develop a sustainable agriculture and that values and attitudes have to be changed. To find out if teachers and students in higher agricultural education are motivated for radical changes a survey based on the Alternative-Conventional Agriculture Paradigm Scale (ACAP-scale) was conducted. The ACAP-scale shows how people relate to the alternative and conventional agricultural paradigm and it shows their overall understanding of how agriculture works and relates to the physical and social environment. This study showed that the ACAP-scale is a suitable method for quantitative assessment of attitudes to agriculture in a broader context. Among students and faculty members at the Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Denmark there exists significant differences in paradigmatic positions. Students’ course choices are, to some extent, influenced by their paradigmatic position, some courses enrol followers of either the alternative or the conventional agricultural paradigm, and females and older students hold more alternative views than males and younger students. It is concluded that the wide range of values and attitudes among students and teachers calls for new teaching methods, where values and attitudes are integrated. It cannot be taken for granted that teachers and students share the radical visions of sustainability as sometimes presupposed of bodies working for sustainable development