West African Monetary Integration and Interstates Risk-Sharing

There are continuing efforts at the monetary integration and unionization in West Africa. Several academics argue that a monetary union among West African states would be costly because of the magnitude of asymmetric shocks. A common monetary policy is inappropriate and ineffective to respond to divergent shocks. Therefore, the stability of such a union is critically dependent on risk-sharing mechanisms for achieving income insurance and consumption smoothing. A monetary union is still optimal if output stabilization mechanisms such as risk-sharing institutions, are in place to cope with asymmetric shocks. This article estimates risk-sharing channels among West African states from 1970 to 2004. It uses the definition of national accounts to measure the fraction of asymmetric output shocks smoothed via net factors income, net transfers and net saving. We find that compared to the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) estimates, the degree of risk-sharing among West African countries is quite low. We also obtain that net saving is the significant and stable risk-sharing channel. A further analysis shows that only the contribution of public saving is significant.Asymmetric shocks, Interstates Risk-sharing, West Africa

West African Monetary Integration and Interstates Risk-Sharing

There are continuing efforts at the monetary integration and unionization in West Africa. Several academics argue that a monetary union among West African states would be costly because of the magnitude of asymmetric shocks. A common monetary policy is inappropriate and ineffective to respond to divergent shocks. Therefore, the stability of such a union is critically dependent on risk-sharing mechanisms for achieving income insurance and consumption smoothing. A monetary union is still optimal if output stabilization mechanisms such as risk-sharing institutions, are in place to cope with asymmetric shocks. This article estimates risk-sharing channels among West African states from 1970 to 2004. It uses the definition of national accounts to measure the fraction of asymmetric output shocks smoothed via net factors income, net transfers and net saving. We find that compared to the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) estimates, the degree of risk-sharing among West African countries is quite low. We also obtain that net saving is the significant and stable risk-sharing channel. A further analysis shows that only the contribution of public saving is significant.Asymmetric shocks;Interstates Risk-sharing;West Africa

Diversification in land and labor allocation in response to shocks among small-scale farmers in central Vietnam

The paper analyzes the relationship between the allocation of labor and land of the households, the number of crops grown and the number of income sources of the households with different types of shocks and risks. It uses the data from the first phase of the household survey in three provinces of Central of Vietnam, conducted within the scope of the DFG research project “Impact of shocks on the vulnerability to poverty: consequences for development of emerging Southeast Asian economies”. The results suggest that the households diversify their portfolio (labor and land) into different income generating activities in order to cope with shocks. Among the different types of shocks and risks, agriculture and economic shocks and risks are the main factors to explain the (ex-post) risk-coping strategies and the (ex-ante) risk management of the households. The number of crops grown and the number of income sources from the households experienced with shocks are higher than others. In addition, the high-risk expectation households diversify their labor and land more than the low risk expectation households. The access to credit and market, the number of household labor, the education of the household head, and the wealth of the household are also very important factors that impact on the diversification level of the households.Diversification, risk management, risk coping strategies, Vietnam, Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital,

Diversification, risk management and risk coping strategies: Evidence from rural households in three provinces in Vietnam

The paper analyzes the relationship between the allocation of labor and land, the number of crops grown and income sources of rural households in Vietnam and different types of shocks and risks. It uses the data from the first phase of the household survey in three provinces of Central of Vietnam, conducted within the scope of the DFG research project "Impact of shocks on the vulnerability to poverty: consequences for development of emerging Southeast Asian economies". The results suggest that the households diversify their portfolio (labor and land) into different income generating activities in order to cope with shocks. Among the different types of shocks and risks, agriculture and economic shocks and risks are the main factors to explain the (ex-post) risk-coping strategies and the (ex-ante) risk management of the households. The number of crops grown and the number of income sources from the households experienced with shocks are higher than others. In addition, the high-risk expectation households diversify their labor and land more than the low risk expectation households. The access to credit and market, the number of household labor, the education of the household head, and the wealth of the household are also very important factors that impact on the diversification level of the households. --Diversification,risk management,risk coping strategies,Vietnam

Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?

This study deals with credit risk modelling and stress testing within the context of a Merton-type one-factor model. We analyse the corporate and household sectors of the Czech Republic and Germany to find determining variables of credit risk in both countries. We find that a set of similar variables explains corporate credit risk in both countries despite substantial differences in the default rate pattern. This does not apply to households, where further research seems to be necessary. Next, we establish a framework for the stress testing of credit risk. We use a country specific stress scenario that shocks macroeconomic variables with medium severity. The test results in credit risk increasing by more than 100% in the Czech Republic and by roughly 40% in Germany. The two outcomes are not fully comparable since the shocks are calibrated according to the historical development of the time series considered and the size of the shocks for the Czech Republic was driven by the transformation period.Credit risk, credit risk modelling, stress testing.

STOCHASTIC WEALTH DYNAMICS AND RISK MANAGEMENT AMONG A POOR POPULATION

The literature on economic growth and development has focused considerable attention on questions of risk management and the possibility of multiple equilibria associated with poverty traps. We use herd history data collected among pastoralists in southern Ethiopia to study stochastic wealth dynamics among a very poor population. These data yield several novel findings. Although covariate rainfall shocks plainly matter, household-specific factors, including own herd size, account for most observed variability in wealth dynamics. Despite longstanding conventional wisdom about common property grazing lands, we find no statistical support for the tragedy of the commons hypothesis. It appears that past studies may have conflated costly self-insurance with stocking rate externalities. Such self-insurance is important in this setting because weak livestock markets and meager social insurance cause wealth to fluctuate largely in response to biophysical shocks. These shocks move households between multiple dynamic wealth equilibria toward which households converge following nonconvex path dynamics. The lowest equilibrium is consistent with the notion of a poverty trap. These findings have broad implications for the design of development and relief strategies among a poor population extraordinarily vulnerable to climatic shocks.common property, covariate risk, Ethiopia, idiosyncratic risk, poverty traps, social insurance, Risk and Uncertainty, O1, Q12,

Intangibles and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle

We are interested in the endogenous determination of firm level idiosyncratic volatility and its evolution over the business cycle. Using data from the Kauffman Firm Survey and Compustat, we find that idiosyncratic volatility at the firm level is negatively correlated with intangible expenditures (e.g. advertising, marketing, brand development, R&D). We also find that intangible expenses are highly pro-cyclical and that firm level volatility is counter-cyclical. To understand this mechanism, we propose a firm dynamics model with endogenous market participation. Firms that incur higher intangible expenses are able expand the firm and end up diversifying market-specific demand shocks by servicing more markets. The model is driven only by first moment shocks (i.e. shocks to aggregate TFP) and is able to capture the relationship between intangibles and risk as well as their cyclical properties.Endogenous idiosyncratic risk

Catastrophe insurance market in the Caribbean Region : market failures and recommendations for public sector interventions

The Caribbean region suffers from a high degree of economic volatility. A history of repeated external and domestic shocks has made economic insecurity a major concern across the region. Of particular concern to all households, especially the poorest segments of the population, is the exposure to shocks that are generated by catastrophic events or natural disasters. The author develops a conceptual framework for risk management and shows that the insurance market for catastrophic risk in the Caribbean region remains a"thin"market characterized by"high"prices and"low"transfer of risk. He analyzes the possible market failures which could explain the lack of development of the catastrophe insurance market. Finally he outlines a set of recommendations for public sector interventions.Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Non Bank Financial Institutions,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Hazard Risk Management,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Non Bank Financial Institutions

Sustaining Growth in a Resource-Based Economy: The Main Issues and the Specific Case of Russia

This paper argues that the challenges posed by resource dependence, which include an increased vulnerability to external shocks, the risk of Dutch disease and the risk of development specific institutional pathologies, can be overcome, or at least very substaintially mitigated, if accompanied by the right economic policies.Russia, resource abundance, dutch disease, economic growth

Vulnerability: a micro perspective

High downside risk to income and livelihoods is part of life in developing countries. Climatic risks, economic fluctuations, and a large number of individual-specific shocks leave these households vulnerable to severe hardship. The paper explores the links between risk, vulnerability and poverty, taking a micro-level perspective. Risk does not just result in variability in living standards. There is increasing evidence that the lack of means to cope with risk and vulnerability is in itself a cause of persistent poverty and poverty traps. Risk results in strategies that avoid taking advantage of profitable but risky opportunities. Shocks destroy human, physical and social capital limiting opportunities further. The result is that risk is an important constraint on broad-based growth in living standards in many developing countries. It is a relatively ignored part when designing anti-poverty policies and efforts to attain the Millennium Development Goals. The paper discusses conceptual issues, the evidence and the policy implications.