Poland Divided: Spatial Differences in the June 2003 EU Accession Referendum. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series, Vol. 4 No. 1, January 2004

(From the introduction). Thus, our purpose here is to describe and analyze geographical patterns within Poland of approval, disapproval, and abstention from this crucial vote on joining the EU, and to link those outcomes to the social and economic situation obtaining in the regions. From these associations we can shed additional light on how Poland divided on this pivotal issue and posit some challenges for both Polish and EU policy makers in the years ahead. To guide us we refer to several studies of the emergence of electoral politics in former- Soviet states (notably Russia and Ukraine) and in Central and Eastern Europe that have pointed to the salience of geographical differences in voting outcomes and voter turnout in the postcommunist period. (7) Complementing research based on individual level, or survey, data, these geographic studies using aggregate data relate variations in the social, economic, and demographic traits of regions to party, candidate, and issue preferences across these same units. For example, it has been almost universally the case in the post-communist countries that rural, older, agricultural populations have voted mainly for parties of the left and against reform, while urban, better-educated, white collar areas have, for the most part, favored parties and candidates that have advocated reform and privatization. These outcomes match very closely the kinds of divisions within societies that we find in surveys. Clearly, however, we must recognize the limitations of aggregate data analysis, especially the need to avoid imputing individual action from collective figures. Surveys, of course, have advantages over one-time aggregate data, including their ability to probe attitudes and to conduct sampling over time. However, polling results have their own limitations especially that they tend to be a–spatial (and therefore cannot usually be used to illuminate important regional issues), and that respondents are not always truthful, particularly on sensitive subjects. But taken together, survey and aggregate data provide us with a higher degree of confidence in the analysis of the correlates of voting behavior. Following the methodology used in these other geographic studies of post-communist states, here we will test several propositions relating to the affinity for EU membership within different segments of Poland’s electorate. We will do this by cross-tabulating results of the June accession referendum with key social and economic variables among the 373 powiaty of Poland. According to the administrative reform of 1999, Poland is divided into 16 provinces (województwa, or voivodships), which are in turn divided into sub-regions (podregiony) and further into the powiaty. (8) The powiat scale of analysis is ideal for our purposes; powiaty are “county” level units or individual cities “with powiat status” (what we will call here “urban powiaty”) that provide an excellent degree of spatial resolution and, most importantly, for which the Polish government provides superb, detailed socioeconomic data and electoral results. (9) Powiaty typically range from 50,000 to 150,000 inhabitants and between 500-2,000 km2. Urban powiaty range from relatively small to medium-sized urban centers with populations around 100,000 people to the largest cities such as Poznań (572,000), Wrocław (624,000), Kraków (741,000) and Łódz (786,526). The Warsaw conurbation comprises the powiat of Warsaw (1.610 million). (10) As will be seen, there is a remarkable diversity within Poland—not unexpectedly in such a large and heterogeneous country—with regard both to social and economic conditions and to the demonstrated preferences of voters, with the two being related

Monetary Policy and Polish Labour Market in the years 1999 - 2008

This article sets out to analyse how the monetary policy pursued by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) determined the labour market situation in the country in the decade 1999-2008. The article consists of introduction as well as five sections. Section one discusses NBP's strategy of monetary policy in the defined period against monetary strategies implemented in other countries. Section two uses the growth rates of money supply and of real GDP to verify whether the primary purpose of monetary policy, i.e. the inflationary target, was achieved. Section three generally characterises the country's labour market using the levels and dynamics of employment and of unemployment. Section four discusses major instruments of NBP's monetary policy, mainly analysing changes in the central bank's interest rates and their effect on the economic situation and on the labour market. The article concludes with a summation providing synthetic conclusions.Celem artykułu jest analiza wpływu polityki monetarnej Narodowego Banku Polskiego (NBP) na sytuację na rynku pracy w Polsce w ciągu dekady obejmującej lata 1999-2008. Opracowanie składa się z wprowadzenia oraz pięciu części. W pierwszej z nich omówiona została strategia polityki monetarnej NBP w badanym okresie wraz z porównaniem ze strategią przyjmowaną w innych krajach. W części drugiej sprawdzono, czy realizowany był podstawowy cel polityki monetarnej, czyli cel inflacyjny, w kontekście kształtowania się stóp wzrostu podaży pieniądza oraz realnego PKB. W punkcie kolejnym ukazana została ogólna charakterystyka rynku pracy na podstawie kształtowania się poziomu i dynamiki zatrudnienia oraz bezrobocia. W części czwartej omówiono podstawowe instrumenty polityki pieniężnej NBP. Uwaga skoncentrowana została głównie na analizie zmian stóp procentowych banku centralnego oraz ich wpływu na sytuację gospodarczą i rynek pracy. Całość zamknięta została podsumowaniem, w którym zawarto syntetyczne wnioski końcowe

Universal Learning of Repeated Matrix Games

We study and compare the learning dynamics of two universal learning algorithms, one based on Bayesian learning and the other on prediction with expert advice. Both approaches have strong asymptotic performance guarantees. When confronted with the task of finding good long-term strategies in repeated 2x2 matrix games, they behave quite differently.Comment: 16 LaTeX pages, 8 eps figure

Asymptotics of Discrete MDL for Online Prediction

Minimum Description Length (MDL) is an important principle for induction and prediction, with strong relations to optimal Bayesian learning. This paper deals with learning non-i.i.d. processes by means of two-part MDL, where the underlying model class is countable. We consider the online learning framework, i.e. observations come in one by one, and the predictor is allowed to update his state of mind after each time step. We identify two ways of predicting by MDL for this setup, namely a static} and a dynamic one. (A third variant, hybrid MDL, will turn out inferior.) We will prove that under the only assumption that the data is generated by a distribution contained in the model class, the MDL predictions converge to the true values almost surely. This is accomplished by proving finite bounds on the quadratic, the Hellinger, and the Kullback-Leibler loss of the MDL learner, which are however exponentially worse than for Bayesian prediction. We demonstrate that these bounds are sharp, even for model classes containing only Bernoulli distributions. We show how these bounds imply regret bounds for arbitrary loss functions. Our results apply to a wide range of setups, namely sequence prediction, pattern classification, regression, and universal induction in the sense of Algorithmic Information Theory among others.Comment: 34 page

Adaptive Online Prediction by Following the Perturbed Leader

When applying aggregating strategies to Prediction with Expert Advice, the learning rate must be adaptively tuned. The natural choice of sqrt(complexity/current loss) renders the analysis of Weighted Majority derivatives quite complicated. In particular, for arbitrary weights there have been no results proven so far. The analysis of the alternative "Follow the Perturbed Leader" (FPL) algorithm from Kalai & Vempala (2003) (based on Hannan's algorithm) is easier. We derive loss bounds for adaptive learning rate and both finite expert classes with uniform weights and countable expert classes with arbitrary weights. For the former setup, our loss bounds match the best known results so far, while for the latter our results are new.Comment: 25 page

Nutritional and Defensive Chemistry of Three North American Ash Species: Possible Roles in Host Performance and Preference by Emerald Ash Borer Adults

Black ash (Fraxinus nigra), green ash (F. pennsylvanica), and white ash (F. americana) are the three most abundant ash species in the northeastern USA. We compared emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), adult performance and preference among seedlings of the three ash species, and then related performance and preference to foli- age nutritional quality and defensive compounds. Longevity of EAB adults reared on green and white ash was found to be greater than on black ash. EAB adult females also seemed to show feeding preference among the three species of ash trees because the total foliage area consumption was greater on green ash and white ash compared to black ash in dual-choice tests; however, the total mass of foliage consumed did not differ. The foliage of all ash species was high in nitrogen and in most macro- and micro-nutrients studied. The patterns of EAB performance and preference did not correspond to any of the individual chemical compounds tested (nitrogen, proteins, most macro- and micro-nutrients, or putative defensive compounds of ash seedlings). Never- theless, greater longevity of EAB adults on green and white ash compared to black ash was probably related to unbalanced nutrients (total nitrogen/total non-structural carbohydrate ratio) of black ash. Putative defensive compounds (i.e., phenolics and protease inhibitors) did not contribute to EAB longevity in this study, probably because (1) EAB adults were able to excrete most of these compounds and (2) their effects were alleviated by high nitrogen levels. More research is needed to elucidate the interactions of nitrogen and carbohydrate levels, and the interactions of nutrient balance and defensive plant allelochemicals on EAB performance and preference

An algorithm for series expansions based on hierarchical rate equations

We propose a computational method to obtain series expansions in powers of time for general dynamical systems described by a set of hierarchical rate equations. The method is generally applicable to problems in both equilibrium and nonequilibrium statistical mechanics such as random sequential adsorption, diffusion-reaction dynamics, and Ising dynamics. New result of random sequential adsorption of dimers on a square lattice is presented.Comment: LaTeX, 9 pages including 1 figur

Effects of Visual Silhouette, Leaf Size and Host Species on Feeding Preference by Adult Emerald Ash Borer, \u3ci\u3eAgrilus Planipennis\u3c/i\u3e Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae)

The emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is an invasive species recently established in North America. In large arena bioassays, when given a choice among live green ash, Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marsh and artificial ash saplings that were hidden or exposed from view, beetles preferred live trees (either visible or hidden) compared to artificial trees that had similar visual silhouettes, confirming that olfactory cues are used to locate hosts. Examination of the effect of leaf size revealed that large leaves attracted more beetles than medium-sized leaves that in turn attracted more beetles than small leaves of the same age. Beetles also consumed more of the large leaves in terms of total leaf area than either medium or small leaves, but the proportion of foliage that beetles consumed relative to total available leaf area, did not differ. When newly emerged adults were fed on green and Manchurian ash, Fraxinus mandshurica Rupr., foliage in a no- choice assay, beetles that were given green ash consumed significantly more foliage compared to those that fed on Manchurian ash, but neither longevity nor beetle body weight differed. Our results suggest that while beetles might use olfactory cues to identify suitable hosts, visual cues also play a role in landing and feeding behavior. Manchurian ash might have greater nutritive value or resistance than green ash, necessitating lower consumption and therefore less damage in nature