3,425 research outputs found

### Exchangeable pairs and Poisson approximation

This is a survey paper on Poisson approximation using Stein's method of exchangeable pairs. We illustrate using Poisson-binomial trials and many variations on three classical problems of combinatorial probability: the matching problem, the coupon collector's problem, and the birthday problem. While many details are new, the results are closely related to a body of work developed by Andrew Barbour, Louis Chen, Richard Arratia, Lou Gordon, Larry Goldstein, and their collaborators. Some comparison with these other approaches is offered.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/154957805100000096 in the Probability Surveys (http://www.i-journals.org/ps/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

### Two sufficient conditions for Poisson approximations in the ferromagnetic Ising model

A $d$-dimensional ferromagnetic Ising model on a lattice torus is considered. As the size of the lattice tends to infinity, two conditions ensuring a Poisson approximation for the distribution of the number of occurrences in the lattice of any given local configuration are suggested. The proof builds on the Stein--Chen method. The rate of the Poisson approximation and the speed of convergence to it are defined and make sense for the model. Thus, the two sufficient conditions are traduced in terms of the magnetic field and the pair potential. In particular, the Poisson approximation holds even if both potentials diverge.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/1214/07-AAP487 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

### The lower tail: Poisson approximation revisited

The well-known "Janson's inequality" gives Poisson-like upper bounds for the lower tail probability \Pr(X \le (1-\eps)\E X) when X is the sum of dependent indicator random variables of a special form. We show that, for large deviations, this inequality is optimal whenever X is approximately Poisson, i.e., when the dependencies are weak. We also present correlation-based approaches that, in certain symmetric applications, yield related conclusions when X is no longer close to Poisson. As an illustration we, e.g., consider subgraph counts in random graphs, and obtain new lower tail estimates, extending earlier work (for the special case \eps=1) of Janson, Luczak and Rucinski.Comment: 21 page

### Relaxation of monotone coupling conditions: Poisson approximation and beyond

It is well-known that assumptions of monotonicity in size-bias couplings may be used to prove simple, yet powerful, Poisson approximation results. Here we show how these assumptions may be relaxed, establishing explicit Poisson approximation bounds (depending on the first two moments only) for random variables which satisfy an approximate version of these monotonicity conditions. These are shown to be effective for models where an underlying random variable of interest is contaminated with noise. We also give explicit Poisson approximation bounds for sums of associated or negatively associated random variables. Applications are given to epidemic models, extremes, and random sampling. Finally, we also show how similar techniques may be used to relax the assumptions needed in a Poincar\'e inequality and in a normal approximation result.Comment: 19 page

### Poisson approximation

This is a survey article on the topic of Poisson approximation

### Stochastic Combinatorial Optimization via Poisson Approximation

We study several stochastic combinatorial problems, including the expected utility maximization problem, the stochastic knapsack problem and the stochastic bin packing problem. A common technical challenge in these problems is to optimize some function of the sum of a set of random variables. The difficulty is mainly due to the fact that the probability distribution of the sum is the convolution of a set of distributions, which is not an easy objective function to work with. To tackle this difficulty, we introduce the Poisson approximation technique. The technique is based on the Poisson approximation theorem discovered by Le Cam, which enables us to approximate the distribution of the sum of a set of random variables using a compound Poisson distribution. We first study the expected utility maximization problem introduced recently [Li and Despande, FOCS11]. For monotone and Lipschitz utility functions, we obtain an additive PTAS if there is a multidimensional PTAS for the multi-objective version of the problem, strictly generalizing the previous result. For the stochastic bin packing problem (introduced in [Kleinberg, Rabani and Tardos, STOC97]), we show there is a polynomial time algorithm which uses at most the optimal number of bins, if we relax the size of each bin and the overflow probability by eps. For stochastic knapsack, we show a 1+eps-approximation using eps extra capacity, even when the size and reward of each item may be correlated and cancelations of items are allowed. This generalizes the previous work [Balghat, Goel and Khanna, SODA11] for the case without correlation and cancelation. Our algorithm is also simpler. We also present a factor 2+eps approximation algorithm for stochastic knapsack with cancelations. the current known approximation factor of 8 [Gupta, Krishnaswamy, Molinaro and Ravi, FOCS11].Comment: 42 pages, 1 figure, Preliminary version appears in the Proceeding of the 45th ACM Symposium on the Theory of Computing (STOC13

### Poisson approximation of the length spectrum of random surfaces

Multivariate Poisson approximation of the length spectrum of random surfaces is studied by means of the Chen-Stein method. This approach delivers simple and explicit error bounds in Poisson limit theorems. They are used to prove that Poisson approximation applies to curves of length up to order $o(\log\log g)$ with $g$ being the genus of the surface.Comment: 22 pages, 2 figures. To appear in Indiana Univ. Math.

### Moderate deviations in Poisson approximation: a first attempt

Poisson approximation using Stein's method has been extensively studied in the literature. The main focus has been on bounding the total variation distance. This paper is a first attempt on moderate deviations in Poisson approximation for right-tail probabilities of sums of dependent indicators. We obtain results under certain general conditions for local dependence as well as for size-bias coupling. These results are then applied to independent indicators, 2-runs, and the matching problem.Comment: 21 page

### Translated Poisson approximation using exchangeable pair couplings

It is shown that the method of exchangeable pairs introduced by Stein [Approximate Computation of Expectations (1986) IMS, Hayward, CA] for normal approximation can effectively be used for translated Poisson approximation. Introducing an additional smoothness condition, one can obtain approximation results in total variation and also in a local limit metric. The result is applied, in particular, to the anti-voter model on finite graphs as analyzed by Rinott and Rotar [Ann. Appl. Probab. 7 (1997) 1080--1105], obtaining the same rate of convergence, but now for a stronger metric.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/105051607000000258 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org