Classical and Bayesian Analysis of Univariate and Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models

In this paper Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS) is used to perform a classical and Bayesian analysis of univariate and multivariate Stochastic Volatility (SV) models for financial return series. EIS provides a highly generic and very accurate procedure for the Monte Carlo (MC) evaluation of high-dimensional interdependent integrals. It can be used to carry out ML-estimation of SV models as well as simulation smoothing where the latent volatilities are sampled at once. Based on this EIS simulation smoother a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) posterior analysis of the parameters of SV models can be performed. --Dynamic Latent Variables,Markov Chain Monte Carlo,Maximum likelihood,Simulation Smoother

Information-geometric Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods using Diffusions

Recent work incorporating geometric ideas in Markov chain Monte Carlo is reviewed in order to highlight these advances and their possible application in a range of domains beyond Statistics. A full exposition of Markov chains and their use in Monte Carlo simulation for Statistical inference and molecular dynamics is provided, with particular emphasis on methods based on Langevin diffusions. After this geometric concepts in Markov chain Monte Carlo are introduced. A full derivation of the Langevin diffusion on a Riemannian manifold is given, together with a discussion of appropriate Riemannian metric choice for different problems. A survey of applications is provided, and some open questions are discussed.Comment: 22 pages, 2 figure

Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Can We Trust the Third Significant Figure?

Current reporting of results based on Markov chain Monte Carlo computations could be improved. In particular, a measure of the accuracy of the resulting estimates is rarely reported. Thus we have little ability to objectively assess the quality of the reported estimates. We address this issue in that we discuss why Monte Carlo standard errors are important, how they can be easily calculated in Markov chain Monte Carlo and how they can be used to decide when to stop the simulation. We compare their use to a popular alternative in the context of two examples.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-STS257 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

An approximate confidence interval for recombination fraction in genetic linkage analysis using a two stage Monte Carlo method Gibbs sampling

One of the important parameters in genetic linkage analysis is recombination fraction. In this paper, we proposed a two stage Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to calculate an approximate confidence interval (ACI) for the recombination fraction. We also presented a formula for calculation of simulation size namely: outer and inner Gibbs sample sizes.Key words: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Gibbs sampler, approximate confidence interval, simulation size

Inference for stochastic volatility model using time change transformations

We address the problem of parameter estimation for diffusion driven stochastic volatility models through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). To avoid degeneracy issues we introduce an innovative reparametrisation defined through transformations that operate on the time scale of the diffusion. A novel MCMC scheme which overcomes the inherent difficulties of time change transformations is also presented. The algorithm is fast to implement and applies to models with stochastic volatility. The methodology is tested through simulation based experiments and illustrated on data consisting of US treasury bill rates.Imputation, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Stochastic volatility

Minimising biases in Full Configuration Interaction Quantum Monte Carlo

We show that Full Configuration Interaction Quantum Monte Carlo (FCIQMC) is a Markov Chain in its present form. We construct the Markov matrix of FCIQMC for a two determinant system and hence compute the stationary distribution. These solutions are used to quantify the dependence of the population dynamics on the parameters defining the Markov chain. Despite the simplicity of a system with only two determinants, it still reveals a population control bias inherent to the FCIQMC algorithm. We investigate the effect of simulation parameters on the population control bias for the neon atom and suggest simulation setups to in general minimise the bias. We show a reweighting scheme to remove the bias caused by population control commonly used in Diffusion Monte Carlo [J. Chem. Phys. 99, 2865 (1993)] is effective and recommend its use as a post processing step.Comment: Supplementary material available as 'Ancillary Files