178,077 research outputs found

    Impact of macroeconomic variables on stock return volatility : evidence from Sub-Sahara Africa

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    The main purpose of this paper was to investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market return volatility in Sub-Sahara markets. The study concentrated on three stock markets including Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa using GARCH-X (1,1) model on monthly data from January 2000 to December 2017. Preliminary analyses from descriptive statistics show that show mean monthly returns are positive for all the stock markets. Skewness coefficients show that the stock returns and interest rates distribution of all Sub-Sahara Africa stock markets are negatively skewed but inflation rate is positively skewed for Nigeria and South Africa, and flat for Ghana. Excess kurtoses are positive for all the stock markets and macroeconomic indicators, and JarqueBera statistics indicate the stock markets’ series and macroeconomic indicators are not normally distributed. The Unit roots tests results indicate that all the stock markets and macroeconomic indicators are first difference stationary. The results of the GARCH-X (1,1) model show that macroeconomic variables do not significantly impact stock market returns volatility in Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa at the 5% significance Level. We therefore recommend that stock market regulators, market participants and investors should concentrate more efforts on other macroeconomic variables aside interest rate and inflation rate, in estimating stock market return volatility in Sub-Sahara Africapeer-reviewe

    Pengujian Kausalitas antara Variabel Makroekonomi dengan Return Pasar di Bursa Efek Indonesia : sebuah Pendekatan Vector Auto

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    Indicators of macroeconomic have major impact on capital markets in general and stocks in particular. Influence of these indicators can be positive or negative. Vector Auto Regression (VAR) is a method of analysis used to predict the time series variable and analyze the dynamic impact factor interference in a system variable. VAR analysis is very useful to assess the linkages between economic variables. This research aims to see the influence of iIndicators of macroeconomic such as the exchange rate (EXCHANGE), interest rate Bank Central of Indonesia Certificates (SBI) and rate of inflation (INFLATION) to market return (REIHSG) in Indonesian Stock Exchange in the period 2004:1-2011:10. Data obtained from the Monthly Stock Price Index Statistics JSX. This research appllying several stages of testing as follows: unit root test, the optimal lag test, Granger causality test and Vector Auto Regression model (VAR). The results of unit root test in this study suggests that the data used for processing in the first degree and VAR Granger test because only the stationary stock index return variable in zero degree (level). On the test results suggested the optimal lag is the lag 3. On the Granger causality test is known that the Granger test variable rate (EXCHANGE) has a one-way impact or the exchange rate (EXCHANGE) affect market return (REIHSG) interest rate of Bank Central of Indonesia Certificates (SBI) and the rate of inflation (INFLATION) has a two direction or impact mutual Causality. These results indicate that there is a weak Granger causality between interest rates Bank Central of Indonesia Certificates (SBI) and rate of inflation (INFLATION) to market return (REIHSG)

    The relevance of the tax effect to explain the "return on equity" (listed companies – France, Germany, Portugal And Spain)

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    Financial statements provide information that could explain the return on equity. The DuPont extended model identifies five key ratios/indicators that might explain the performance of a company – tax effect, interest burden, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margin, assets turnover and financial leverage. This study aims to analyse the relevance of the tax effect on the "return on equity" (ROE). For the purpose of the study we selected a sample based on listed companies from the stock markets of France, Germany, Portugal and Spain. The number of companies of the sample is 516. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method was used to determine the individual impact of each factor on the "return on equity". According to our findings, the tax effect and the interest burden play the most important role in order to explain the return on equity.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    The relevance of the tax effect compared with other dupont model factors in order toxplain the “return on equity” (Listed Companies – France, Germany, Portugal and Spain)

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    Financial statements provide information that could explain the return on equity. The DuPont extended model identifies five key ratios/indicators that might explain the performance of a company – tax effect, interest burden, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margin, assets turnover and financial leverage. This study aims to analyze the relevance of the tax effect on the “return on equity” (ROE) when compared with the other DuPont model factors. For the purpose of the study, we selected a sample based on listed companies from the stock markets of France, Germany, Portugal and Spain. The number of companies in the sample is 516. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method was used to determine the individual impact of each factor on the “return on equity”. According to our findings, the tax effect and the interest burden play the most important role in order to explain the return on equity.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    PENGUJIAN KAUSALITAS ANTARA VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DENGAN RETURN PASAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA : SEBUAH PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTO

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    Indicators of macroeconomic have major impact on capital markets in general and stocks in particular. Influence of these indicators can be positive or negative. Vector Auto Regression (VAR) is a method of analysis used to predict the time series variable and analyze the dynamic impact factor interference in a system variable. VAR analysis is very useful to assess the linkages between economic variables. This research aims to see the influence of iIndicators of macroeconomic such as the exchange rate (EXCHANGE), interest rate Bank Central of Indonesia Certificates (SBI) and rate of inflation (INFLATION) to market return (REIHSG) in Indonesian Stock Exchange in the period 2004:1-2011:10. Data obtained from the Monthly Stock Price Index Statistics JSX. This research appllying several stages of testing as follows: unit root test, the optimal lag test, Granger causality test and Vector Auto Regression model (VAR). The results of unit root test in this study suggests that the data used for processing in the first degree and VAR Granger test because only the stationary stock index return variable in zero degree (level). On the test results suggested the optimal lag is the lag 3. On the Granger causality test is known that the Granger test variable rate (EXCHANGE) has a one-way impact or the exchange rate (EXCHANGE) affect market return (REIHSG) interest rate of Bank Central of Indonesia Certificates (SBI) and the rate of inflation (INFLATION) has a two direction or impact mutual Causality. These results indicate that there is a weak Granger causality between interest rates Bank Central of Indonesia Certificates (SBI) and rate of inflation (INFLATION) to market return (REIHSG).Keywords: Vector Auto Regressive (VAR), Macroeconomic, Granger Causality, IHSG stock retur

    Confidence Building in Emerging Stock Markets

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    Investor confidence is a major determinant of financial integration for emerging markets and their stock prices. We investigate whether privatization also has a significant effect on emerging stock market development through the resolution of policy risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major test of political commitment to market oriented reforms and to safer private property rights. The evidence suggests that progress in privatization gradually leads to increased confidence as measured by perceived policy risk. Moreover, increased confidence has a strong effect on local market development and excess returns. We conclude that, while liberalization is a necessary condition for market development, the resolution of policy risk resulting from successful privatization has been an important source for the rapid growth of stock markets in emerging economies.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39750/3/wp366.pd

    Real-time price discovery in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets

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    We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkages are particularly intriguing as regards equity markets. We show that equity markets react differently to the same news depending on the state of the economy, with bad news having a positive impact during expansions and the traditionally-expected negative impact during recessions. We rationalize this by temporal variation in the competing "cash flow" and "discount rate" effects for equity valuation. This finding helps explain the time-varying correlation between stock and bond returns, and the relatively small equity market news effect when averaged across expansions and recessions. Lastly, relying on the pronounced heteroskedasticity in the high-frequency data, we document important contemporaneous linkages across all markets and countries over-and-above the direct news announcement effects. JEL Klassifikation: F3, F4, G1, C

    Liberalization, Corporate Governance, and the Performance of Newly Privatized Firms

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    This paper seeks to provide an answer to the following question, namely when and how does privatization work? Using a unique sample of 201 firms headquartered in 32 developing countries, we document a significant increase in profitability, efficiency, investment and output. Next, using univariate tests, we show that corporate governance mechanisms and economic reforms and environment have an effect on the changes in operating performance. For example, we find that privatization yields better results when stock market and trade liberalizations precede it. The results of a regression analysis, across a number of specifications, indicate that economic reforms and environment as well as corporate governance variables explain the post-privatization performance changes. In particular, economic growth, control relinquishment by the government and foreign ownership are key determinants of profitability changes. We also find higher improvements in efficiency and output for firms in countries in which stock markets are more developed and where property rights are better protected and enforced. Finally, our results suggest that trade openness is an important determinant of the post-privatization increase in investment.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39803/3/wp419.pd

    Sources of time varying return comovements during different economic regimes: evidence from the emerging Indian equity market

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    We study the economic and non-economic sources of stock return comovements of the emerging Indian equity market and the developed equity markets of the US, UK, Germany, France, Canada and Japan. Our findings show that the probability of extreme comovements in the economic contraction regime is relatively higher than in the economic expansion regime. We show that international interest rates, inflation uncertainty and dividend yields are the main drivers of the asymmetric return comovements. Findings reported in the paper imply that the impact of interest rates and inflation on return comovements could be used for anticipating financial contagion and/or spillover effects. This is particularly critical since during extreme market conditions, the tail return comovements can potentially reveal critical information for active portfolio management

    Financial market integration under EMU

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    The single most important policy-induced innovation in the international financial system since the collapse of the Bretton-Woods regime is the institution of the European Monetary Union. This paper provides an account of how the process of financial integration has promoted financial development in the euro area. It starts by defining financial integration and how to measure it, analyzes the barriers that can prevent it and the effects of their removal on financial markets, and assesses whether the euro area has actually become more integrated. It then explores to which extent these changes in financial markets have influenced the performance of the euro-area economy, that is, its growth and investment, as well as its ability to adjust to shocks and to allow risk-sharing. The paper concludes analyzing further steps that are required to consolidate financial integration and enhance the future stability of financial markets
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