Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect

This paper explores the hypothesis that high volatility of real and nominal exchange rates may be due to the fact that local currency pricing eliminates the pass-through from changes in exchange rates to consumer prices. Exchange rates may be highly volatile because in a sense they have little effect on macroeconomic variables. The paper shows the ingredients necessary to construct such an explanation for exchange rate volatility. In addition to the presence of local currency pricing, we need a) incomplete international financial markets, b) a structure of international pricing and product distribution such that wealth effects of exchange rate changes are minimized, and c) stochastic deviations from uncovered interest rate parity. Together, it is shown that these elements can produce exchange rate volatility that is much higher than shocks to economic fundamentals, and `disconnected' from the rest of the economy in the sense that the volatility of all other macroeconomic aggregates are of the same order as that of fundamentals.

Exchange rate regime and real exchange rate behavior

This paper examines exchange rate regimes from the viewpoint of the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP). Specifically, we analyze real exchange rate behavior under various classifications of exchange rate arrangement through panel unit root tests, and also investigate the adjustment speed of nominal exchange rate and relative prices separately through an error correction framework. Our findings are as follows: First, as a result of the panel unit root tests on real exchange rate behavior, industrial countries under “free float†reveal REER stability even though the test results show weak support for this speculation, while developing countries under “hard peg†definitely represent the REER stability, and have full support from the tests. Second, error correction analysis tells us that in industrial countries under “free float,†the adjustment of nominal exchange rate was faster than that of relative prices, while in developing countries under “hard peg†the adjustment of relative prices is faster that that of the nominal exchange rate. We speculate that industrial countries under free float may render exchange rate movements sensitive to the inflation gap, and that developing countries under “hard peg†may produce nonlinear price adjustments toward the REER long-run equilibrium through an anchor-effect of peg on price stabilization.real (effective) exchange rate, exchange rate arrangement, panel unit root tests, error correction analysis, nonlinear price adjustment

The Interest Rate — Exchange Rate Nexus: Exchange Rate Regimes and Policy Equilibria

We study a credible Markov-perfect monetary policy in an open New Keynesian economy with incomplete finacial markets. We demonstrate the existence of two discretionary equilibria. Following a shock the economy can be stabilised either 'quickly' or 'slow', both dynamic paths satisfy conditions of optimality and time-consistency. The model can help us to understand sudden change of the interest rate and exchange rate volatility in 'tranquil' and 'volatile' regimes even under a fully credible 'soft peg' of the nominal exchange rate in developing countries.Small Open Economy, Incomplete Financial Markets, Discretionary Monetary Policy, Multiple Equilibria.

Equilibrium exchange rate theories under flexible exchange rate regimes

Economic theory refers to several notions of the exchange rate equilibrium value in a flexible exchange rate regime. It has been defined as that consistent with : a) the equilibrium of trade balance; b)the equilibrium of current account; c) the overall equilibrium of the balance of payments; d) the absence of speculative attacks on foreign exchange markets; e) the absence of a beggar thy neighbour” dispute at an international level; f) the achievement of price stability; g) the pursuit of a monetary policy rule. Through a literature survey we have seen that different exchange rates have effects on output and employment both in the short and in the long run. However the major conclusion was reached by an extension of recent studies, according to which, even if the central bank strictly controls the inflation rate, the absence of a precise objective in terms of price level makes the exchange rate indeterminate.exchange rate; equilibrium; real misalignment

Exchange-Rate Discounting

Economists often describe nominal exchange rates as forward-looking, so that they reflect discounted, expected, future fundamentals. This study applies a method for identifying the discount rate involved, without knowing or measuring fundamentals. Identification arises from assumptions on the stochastic process followed by fundamentals, combined with nonlinearity arising from expected future regime changes. Two applications yield evidence against the present-value model in the form of discount rates which are negative and statistically significant.floating exchange rates, regime switching

The interest rate - exchange rate nexus: exchange rate regimes and policy equilibria

We study a credible Markov-perfect monetary policy in an open New Keynesian economy with incomplete financial markets. We demonstrate the existence of two discretionary equilibria. Following a shock the economy can be stabilised either 'quickly' or 'slow', both dynamic paths satisfy conditions of optimality and time-consistency. The model can help us to understand sudden change of the interest rate and exchange rate volatility in 'tranquil' and 'volatile' regimes even under a fully credible 'soft peg' of the nominal exchange rate in developing countries.Small open economy, Incomplete ?nancial markets, Discretionary Monetary policy, Multiple Equilibria

Home bias, exchange rate disconnect, and optimal exchange rate policy

This paper examines how much the central bank should adjust the interest rate in response to real exchange rate fluctuations. The paper first demonstrates in a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, that the home bias in consumption is important to duplicate the exchange rate volatility and exchange rate disconnect documented in the data. When home bias is high, the shock to Uncovered Interest-rate Parity (UIP) can substantially drive up exchange rate volatility while leaving the volatility of real macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, almost untouched. The model predicts the volatility of the real exchange rate relative to that of GDP increases with the extent of home bias. This relation is strongly supported by the data. Then a second-order accurate solution method is employed to solve the model and compare the conditional welfare under different policy regimes. The results suggest that the monetary authority should not seek to vigorously stabilize exchange rate fluctuations. In particular, when the central bank does not take a strong stance against the inflation rate, exchange rate stabilization may induce substantial welfare loss. The model also suggests no welfare gain from the international monetary cooperation, which extends Obstfeld and Rogoff's (2002) findings to a DSGE model.