Is this time different for Asia?: Evidence from stock Markets

The recent sub-prime financial crisis initially affected the Asian economy to a degree comparable to that of the downturn in the Asian financial crisis; however, the recovery in Asia took place at a much faster pace than during the Asian financial crisis. We investigate whether the effects of sub-prime financial crisis on 13 Asian economies are similar to those of the previous crisis, by examining stock markets for volatility spillovers and causality directions between the US and Asia as well as for the degree of regional integration. The empirical evidence indicates stark differences between these two crises. First, the decline in volatility spillovers during the period of financial turmoil was more pervasive for the Asian financial crisis. Second, the estimated point of transition in correlation is indicative of market participants’ awareness of the upcoming stock market crash in September 2008. Third, the causality from the epicenter of crises is intensified during crisis. Fourth, regional integration was strengthened after the financial turmoil of the recent sub-prime financial crisis but not after the Asian financial crisis.Asia, Contagion, Financial crisis, Spillover, Stock market integration.

Asia: A Perspective on the Subprime Crisis

The authors, from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, examines the current crisis through the lens of the financial crisis that hit Asia in 1997. They discuss lessons that industrial countries can take from the Asian crisis and lessons Asian countries can learn from the subprime crisis. They also examine the reasons for Asia's resilience, so far, to the financial crisis.A comparison of the causes of Asian financial crisis and the subprime crisis and their lessons

Bivariate Causality between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices on Major Asian Countries

This paper studies the cointegration and the bivariate causality relationship between exchange rates and stock prices on the seven Asian countries badly hit by the Asian Financial Crisis. Our empirical results show that, before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, all countries, except the Philippines and Malaysia, experience no evidence of Granger causality between the exchange rates and the stock prices. However, the causality but not the cointegration between the capital and financial markets appear to become strong during the Asian Financial Crisis period. Surprisingly, after the 911-terrorist-attack, the causality relationship between the two markets returns to normal as in the pre-Asian-crisis period and the cointegration relationship weakens between exchange rates and stock prices. Thus, we conclude that (1) Asian Financial Crisis has a bigger and more direct impact on the causality relationship between stock prices and currency exchanges in Asian markets and the 911-terrorist-attack basically has no impact on the causality relationship between the two markets; and (2) the financial and capital markets have become more mature and efficient after the crisis.Asian Financial Crisis, 911-Terrorist-Attack, Dynamic Linkages, Cointegration, Bivariate Causality

Stability of East Asian Currencies during the Global Financial Crisis

In this study, we investigate the movements of the nominal effective exchange rates (NEER) of East Asian currencies and the Asian Monetary Unit (AMU), which is the weighted average of East Asian currencies, during the course of the global financial crisis. We found that the NEER were more stable in countries that adopted the currency basket system even during the financial crisis. Comparisons made between the NEER and a combination of the AMU and AMU Deviation Indicators show intra-regional exchange rates among the East Asian currencies, and that there have been strong relationships between them before and after the global financial crisis. Accordingly, monitoring both the AMU and the AMU Deviation Indicators is effective in stabilizing the NEER of East Asian currencies. In this respect, our findings indicate that the AMU Deviation Indicators as well as the AMU will play a very important role in the surveillance of the stability of intra-regional exchange rates.currency basket system, effective exchange rate, global financial crisis, East Asian currencies

The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects

macroeconomics, East Asian Financial Crisis, East Asia, Financial crisis, Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects

Financial Turmoil in the Banking Sector and the Asian Lamfalussy Process: The Case of Four Economies

This paper investigates the prevailing financial regulatory structures and impact of the current financial turmoil on banking performance in four economies: the People's Republic of China (PRC); Hong Kong China; Singapore; and Taipei,China. Both the PRC and Hong Kong, China operate under a fragmented financial regulatory structure, while Singapore and Taipei,China have integrated structures. We examine the role of an integrated financial regulatory structure in helping financial institutions mitigate the impact of the financial crisis, using financial indicators of banks' capital structure and operating performance in these four economies between 2003 and 2008. Our analysis of the indicators reveals that banking performance under a fragmented financial regulatory structure is not worse than under integrated regulation. This implies that financial regulatory structure is not the main reason why Asian financial institutions suffered only limited losses from the current global financial crisis. However, given the growing complexity of the global financial system, and the relative weakness of current financial regulatory structures in Asia, this paper suggests that East Asian governments should refer to the Lamfalussy Process in the European Union and set up an Asia Financial Stability Dialogue to facilitate policy coordination for regional financial sector stability and development.asian financial regulation; global financial crisis; asian banking; prc; asian financial institutions; asian financial sector

Economic Preconditions for Monetary Integration in East Asia

Asian Financial Crisis gave a devastating impact on East Asian countries, which had been enjoying good economic performance. As a result, there emerged various initiatives for monetary cooperation in order to avoid the next crisis in the region. However, there are pros and cons on the regional financial integration and cooperation in Asia. Some argue that in order to avoid the next Asian Financial Crisis, Asian countries must closely united with each other, and others argues that regional attempts, whether financial cooperation or trading arrangement, may undermine the global efforts. In view of the above, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether East Asian countries (or subset of them) constitute a preferable grouping for monetary cooperation and integration. I examine the degree of interdependence of East Asia in terms of trade, labor and macroeconomic variables. The results of the examination suggest that economic preconditions for monetary integration are met, and there is indeed a case for financial integration and cooperation in East Asia.

Progress and prospects of regional financial arrangements and cooperation in East Asia: a critical survey

The main purpose of this paper is to provide a brief survey for the progress and prospects of regional financial arrangements/cooperation among the East Asian nations and present the summary of various conflicting points of discussion about the strategies on the establishment of an effective regional financial arrangement in the region. This critical survey derives a list of viable and practical strategies for establishing an effective RFA/RFC scheme in the East Asian region in order to prevent the reoccurrence of a financial/economic crisis and large-scale contagion in the region in the future.Regional Financial Cooperations; Asian Financial Crisis, East Asia

From the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis to the 2008-09 global economic crisis: lessons from Korea’s experience

East Asian countries were hit hard by the financial crisis in 1997 and have shown significant and remarkable recovery with far-reaching economic and regulatory reforms since then. A decade later, the Asian countries are suffering again from the on-going global economic crises beginning in the summer of 2007. If this current crisis is not managed effectively, the Asian economic situation could escalate into a more serious crisis mode than that of 1997-8. Due to the increased globalization of financial markets, crises tend to become more severe and contagious even if the effected countries have strong macroeconomic fundamentals. This paper focuses on the Korean economy, which experienced the hardest crisis hit as well as most successful recovery from the 1997 crisis, and discusses interrelated and general policy lessons from the 1997 and 2008 crises to help prevent from the reoccurrence of similar financial crises and economic downturns in the future. Specific lessons, among many, to be analyzed in this paper are drawn on 1) monitoring international capital flows and conducting better international debt management, 2) maintaining a competitive, efficient and well-regulated financial system to be protected from international contagion, 3) establishing an effective nonperforming asset management mechanism, such as the Korea Asset Management Corporation (KAMCO) of Korea, and 4) enhancing regional financial cooperation among the East Asian countries, like a renewed Chiang Mai Initiative, to provide a short-term liquidity support, defend Asian currencies from speculative attack, and assist long-term economic growth in the East Asian region. In deriving the main policy lessons, both the commonalities and uniqueness of the two crises-old in 1997 and new in 2008-are examined from the perspective of the Korean economy.Asian financial crisis; Global economic crisis, Korea

Reform proposals from developing Asia: finding a win-win strategy

Recipient countries and creditors have different perspectives on proposals for reform of the international financial architecture. The difference arises from varying perceptions of the causes of the East Asian crisis. Creditors emphasize inappropriate policies of borrowing countries, and inadequacies in financial sectors. Recipient countries point to evidence of incorrect monetary policy advice, of contagion and herd behavior. If reforms include items from both sets this would maximize future benefits from financial flows. Statements from Asian policy makers and academics indicate that these countries remain committed to globalization and financial reform and are willing to adopt policies from the first set. If the balance of global power allows creditors to escape policies from the second set, it will harm them in the long run. Greater understanding of these technical aspects, stronger Asian regional groups and coalitions with other reformist groups and academics increase the chances of a more balanced set of reforms.International financial architecture, East Asian crisis, creditor view, debtor view, balanced reform, crisis warning