Global economy dynamics? Panel data approach to spillover effects

Over the past year, there has been considerable debate about how the slowing of the United States and other major developed economies affects output growth across the world. The main purpose of this paper is to establish relevant conclusions on how the U.S., Euro Area and Japan gross domestic product growth affect international business cycle fluctuations, with the objective of identifying the main factors that influence spillovers into other countries. Using panel data regression, we conclude that output growth in the U.S. and Euro area are significant in explaining output growth across countries. Depending on the specifications, trade linkages play a significant role while financial linkages with respect to the three regions does not (except in one particular specification). There are signs of potential omitted variable bias in some regression indicating that some relevant variables have not been taken into account. There is also clear evidence of a structural change in the transmission mechanism of shocks after 1985 – since when shocks have become more country-specific.Output Growth, Trade and Financial Linkages, Structural Break, Cross- Section Panel Data.

A random utility based multiregional input-output approach to estimate the impact of a new highway on the regional distribution of jobs

This paper addresses the economic impact assessment of the construction of a new road on the regional distribution of jobs. The paper summarizes different existing model approaches considered to assess economic impacts through a literature review. Afterwards, we present the development of a comprehensive approach for analyzing the interaction of new transport infrastructure and the economic impact through an integrated model. This model has been applied to the construction of the motorway A-40 in Spain (497 Km.) which runs across three regions without passing though Madrid City. This may in turn lead to the relocation of labor and capital due to the improvement of accessibility of markets or inputs. The result suggests the existence of direct and indirect effects in other regions derived from the improvement of the transportation infrastructure, and confirms the relevance of road freight transport in some regions. We found that the changes in regional employment are substantial for some regions (increasing or decreasing jobs), but a t the same time negligible in other regions. As a result,the approach provides broad guidance to national governments and other transport-related parties about the impacts of this transport policy

The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition

Now in its 11th edition, The Global Risks Report 2016 draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade. The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. Warming climate is likely to raise this year's temperature to 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, 60 million people, equivalent to the world's 24th largest country and largest number in recent history, are forcibly displaced, and crimes in cyberspace cost the global economy an estimated US$445 billion, higher than many economies' national incomes. In this context, the Reportcalls for action to build resilience – the "resilience imperative" – and identifies practical examples of how it could be done.The Report also steps back and explores how emerging global risks and major trends, such as climate change, the rise of cyber dependence and income and wealth disparity are impacting already-strained societies by highlighting three clusters of risks as Risks in Focus. As resilience building is helped by the ability to analyse global risks from the perspective of specific stakeholders, the Report also analyses the significance of global risks to the business community at a regional and country-level

Convergence among Italian Regions, 1861-2011

In 150 years, the trends in regional disparities in economic development within Italy have differed depending on whether they are gauged by longitude or by latitude. The disparities between western and eastern regions first widened and then closed; the North-South gap, by contrast, remains the main open problem in the national history of Italy. This work focuses on the underlying causes of the turning points in regional disparities since national unification in 1861. The first came in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, with the industrialization of the so-called "industrial triangle". This was followed by the "failed new turn" during the interwar years: not only were the beginnings of convergence blocked but the North-South gap, until then still natural, inevitable, was transformed into a fracture of exceptional dimensions. The second turning point, in the twenty years after the World War, produced the first substantial, lasting convergence between southern and northern Italy, powered by rising productivity and structural change in the South. The last turning point was in the mid-1970s, when convergence was abruptly halted and a protracted period of immobility in the disparity began.Italy, regional disparities

Forest Land Ownership Change in Europe. COST Action FP1201 FACESMAP Country Reports : Joint Volume

Publisher PD

Identifying the drivers of sustainable rural growth and poverty reduction in Honduras

"The overall objective of this paper is to develop an appropriate conceptual and analytical framework to better understand how prospects for growth and poverty reduction can be stimulated in rural Honduras. We employ complementary quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis, driven by an asset-base approach. Emphasis on assets is appropriate given high inequalities in the distribution of productive assets among households and geographical areas in Honduras. Such inequalities are likely to constrain how the poor share in the benefits of growth, even under appropriate policy regimes. We focus on household assets (broadly defined to include natural, physical, human, financial, social and locational assets) and their combinations necessary to take advantage of economic opportunities. We examine the relative contributions of these assets, and identify the combinations of productive, social, and location-specific assets that matter most to raise incomes and take advantage of prospects for poverty-reducing growth. Factor and cluster analysis techniques are used to identify and group different livelihood strategies; and econometric analysis is used to investigate the determinants of different livelihood strategies and the major factors that impact on income. Spatial analysis, community livelihood studies and project stocktakings are brought in to complement some of the more quantitative household survey data used. Our conclusions and recommendations are mainly focused on hillsides and hillside areas since the majority of the available data is for these areas." Authors' AbstractPoverty alleviation Latin America ,Sustainability ,Livelihoods ,Spatial analysis (Statistics) ,Hillside areas ,

The agroecological transition of agricultural systems in the Global South

Food security, jobs, ecological transition of agricultural production models and consumption patterns... Agroecology could be one of the solutions to meet the future challenges of humanity. Part of the United Nation's 17 Sustainable Development Goals, it requires a lasting commitment from all of us. To meet the food and economic needs of growing rural and urban communities, fulfil increasingly demanding consumer requirements, conserve natural resources and adapt to climate change, we have to find new ways of agricultural production. Over the last decade, CIRAD and AFD have conducted experiments in agroecological transitions with farmers, researchers, development agents and policymakers in many countries of the Global South. In this book, they reflect on the future of agroecology as a way for agriculture in the developing world to adapt to global changes and they examine the conditions necessary for a successful agroecological transition