Ethical Implications of Predictive Risk Intelligence

open access articleThis paper presents a case study on the ethical issues that relate to the use of Smart Information Systems (SIS) in predictive risk intelligence. The case study is based on a company that is using SIS to provide predictive risk intelligence in supply chain management (SCM), insurance, finance and sustainability. The pa-per covers an assessment of how the company recognises ethical concerns related to SIS and the ways it deals with them. Data was collected through a document review and two in-depth semi-structured interviews. Results from the case study indicate that the main ethical concerns with the use of SIS in predictive risk intelli-gence include protection of the data being used in predicting risk, data privacy and consent from those whose data has been collected from data providers such as so-cial media sites. Also, there are issues relating to the transparency and accountabil-ity of processes used in predictive intelligence. The interviews highlighted the issue of bias in using the SIS for making predictions for specific target clients. The last ethical issue was related to trust and accuracy of the predictions of the SIS. In re-sponse to these issues, the company has put in place different mechanisms to ensure responsible innovation through what it calls Responsible Data Science. Under Re-sponsible Data Science, the identified ethical issues are addressed by following a code of ethics, engaging with stakeholders and ethics committees. This paper is important because it provides lessons for the responsible implementation of SIS in industry, particularly for start-ups. The paper acknowledges ethical issues with the use of SIS in predictive risk intelligence and suggests that ethics should be a central consideration for companies and individuals developing SIS to create meaningful positive change for society

European exchange trading funds trading with locally weighted support vector regression

In this paper, two different Locally Weighted Support Vector Regression (wSVR) algorithms are generated and applied to the task of forecasting and trading five European Exchange Traded Funds. The trading application covers the recent European Monetary Union debt crisis. The performance of the proposed models is benchmarked against traditional Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The Radial Basis Function, the Wavelet and the Mahalanobis kernel are explored and tested as SVR kernels. Finally, a novel statistical SVR input selection procedure is introduced based on a principal component analysis and the Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2011) model confidence test. The results demonstrate the superiority of the wSVR models over the traditional SVRs and of the v-SVR over the ε-SVR algorithms. We note that the performance of all models varies and considerably deteriorates in the peak of the debt crisis. In terms of the kernels, our results do not confirm the belief that the Radial Basis Function is the optimum choice for financial series

Logics and practices of transparency and opacity in real-world applications of public sector machine learning

Machine learning systems are increasingly used to support public sector decision-making across a variety of sectors. Given concerns around accountability in these domains, and amidst accusations of intentional or unintentional bias, there have been increased calls for transparency of these technologies. Few, however, have considered how logics and practices concerning transparency have been understood by those involved in the machine learning systems already being piloted and deployed in public bodies today. This short paper distils insights about transparency on the ground from interviews with 27 such actors, largely public servants and relevant contractors, across 5 OECD countries. Considering transparency and opacity in relation to trust and buy-in, better decision-making, and the avoidance of gaming, it seeks to provide useful insights for those hoping to develop socio-technical approaches to transparency that might be useful to practitioners on-the-ground. An extended, archival version of this paper is available as Veale M., Van Kleek M., & Binns R. (2018). `Fairness and accountability design needs for algorithmic support in high-stakes public sector decision-making' Proceedings of the 2018 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI'18), http://doi.org/10.1145/3173574.3174014.Comment: 5 pages, 0 figures, presented as a talk at the 2017 Workshop on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency in Machine Learning (FAT/ML 2017), Halifax, Canada, August 14, 201