Analyzing the Effectiveness of Maritime Policy for the Management of Increasing Rates of Vessel Traffic in the Bering Strait

Abstract

The Arctic is changing at a rapid pace, affecting virtually every aspect of life in the region, with major changes to sea ice, permafrost, and traditional lifestyles. These changes, in conjunction with globalization, have led to a rise in interest in the Arctic and accessing its resources. One considerable facet of accessing the Arctic is via maritime activity, with shorter transport times between Asia and Europe, fishing valuable stocks, and access to offshore oil and gas deposits. As countries such as Russia and China are intent on developing the Arctic and commercializing maritime trade routes, many living in the region are contending with the unintended impacts from increased maritime activity that may occur, threatening food and environmental security. While interest in the region is occurring across the Arctic, effects from increased maritime activity are already being felt in the Bering Strait region of Western Alaska, with decreases in multi-year sea ice important for subsistence and natural infrastructure, changes to migratory patterns of several marine species, and occurrences of pollution from vessels (Tsujii et al. 2021; NSIDC 2023; Raymond-Yakoubian and Daniel 2018; Hartsig et al. 2012). The impacts on food and environmental security are likely to be amplified within the Bering Strait due to its unique geography and ecosystem, serving as a migration corridor for many marine species, and as a natural bottleneck for anthropogenic activity, with a mere 50 nautical miles at its narrowest point and the Diomede Islands situated in the middle of the strait (Hartsig et al. 2012). Furthermore, the Bering Strait is the only connection between the Arctic and Pacific Oceans. With the heightened risk for negative impacts to the communities living within the Bering Strait region—such as various types of pollution from maritime activity, ship strikes (either to marine mammals or sea ice) and spread of invasive species—all affecting traditional subsistence lifestyles, a new policy to protect the Bering Strait is needed. Thus, the main objective of this study is to evaluate policy options that could mitigate the impacts of increasing vessel traffic through the Bering Strait. A maritime traffic management plan can be determined by analyzing how vessels behave in response to current policy. To best simulate the potential traffic the Bering Strait could receive as a part of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP), as well as the theoretical Transpolar Route, policy applicable to the Aleutian Archipelago (along the North Pacific Great Circle Route) is analyzed in addition to the current conditions of the Bering Strait. The policies analyzed within this study include the International Maritime Organization’s ‘Areas to be Avoided’(ATBA) and the United States Coast Guard ‘Alternative Planning Criteria’ (APC, through the Aleutian ATBAs). Analysis of vessel tracklines was performed with spatial software and tabulated data with statistical software. To analyze the ATBA policy for both the Aleutian Chain and Bering Strait, a spatio-temporal Hotspot Analysis was used to investigate pattern shifts in vessel traffic over the 2015 to 2022 dataset. To further analyze the behavior of vessels transiting through waters containing ATBAs, two additional analyses were conducted. For the APC policy and the Aleutian Archipelago ATBAs, email communication between vessel operators and the Marine Exchange of Alaska (MXAK) was analyzed, and information was categorized, such as weather, the type of email exchange, and the overall receptiveness to being contacted. To investigate whether port calls influenced adherence to the ATBAs, vessel traffic along Western Alaska was tabulated by season for the traffic docking at a community. From the analysis, three main findings emerged: (1) vessel behavior is impacted by the ATBA implementation for each respective region, (2) various factors, including weather and community access, continue to influence vessel behavior, and (3) communication from a third-party organization (in this study, MXAK) impacts adherence to the ATBA policy. As policy has influenced vessel behavior in both the Aleutian Archipelago and the Bering Strait region in the past, policy alternatives to manage increased maritime activity within the Bering Strait region can be useful to prevent negative impacts of vessel activity to Western Alaska communities. Using a modified Political, Economic, Social, Technological Analysis (in this analysis Environmental and Legal components were utilized), in conjunction with a Comparative Analysis, policy alternatives were examined for the best option given the current conditions (geopolitical, legal) that the Bering Strait stakeholders face. From the policy analyses conducted, the recommendation for managing increasing rates of maritime activity is to create a voluntary vessel monitoring system with open enrollment by any vessel with the Bering Strait that can provide weather advisories, warn of subsistence activities, and inform of areas to be avoided and other existing policies. Due to this voluntary nature, the vessel monitoring system can transcend both geopolitical tensions between Russia and the United States. Additionally, this policy alternative provides a way for mariners to be aware of any subsistence activities in the region. Upon further increases in maritime activity within the Bering Strait, it will be essential to revisit current policy for effectiveness, as well as include the participation and concerns of the communities located within the Bering Strait Region.National Science FoundationAcknowledgements / Executive Summary / Introduction / Background / Policy Research Methods and Analysis / Policy Research Findings / Policy Analysis / Recommendations / References / Appendi