Spatiotemporal Variations of Precipitation and Climate-Resilient Structure Design in Virginia

Abstract

How to consider effects of climate change on the design and management of hydrology related infrastructure is crucial but remains a challenge for sustaining resilient society. To address this challenge, existing hydrologic design procedures may need to be revised and/or redeveloped to take into account the precipitation non-stationarity resulting from climate change. Using the state of Virginia as a testbed and advanced statistical techniques such as nonparametric test, spatial autocorrelation, linear regression, distribution fitting, and spatial interpolation, this dissertation developed an innovative framework to detect the historical spatiotemporal variations of various precipitation characteristics, namely maximum precipitation intensity, precipitation amount, simple precipitation intensities, dry and wet spells, precipitation maximums, and precipitation exceedances. The results indicated that the state of Virginia has been experiencing more storms with a larger magnitude, a longer duration, and a greater intensity, making it vital to revisit the existing water management policies and engineering design standards. In this regard, next-generation probability-based IDF curves that consider the precipitation non-stationarity were created using both historical and predicted precipitations for Virginia. Such IDF curves can be a handy and useful tool for practical engineers to size hydraulic structures under nonstationary climates