Applying the Dispa-SET model to the analysis of the water-power nexus in the Western Balkan and neighbouring countries

Abstract

U ovom radu proučava se poveznica između tri postojeća modela. U svrhu energetskog modeliranja i prikaza rezultata za različite ulazne podatke stvara se poveznica između LISFLOOD hidrološkog modela i Dispa-SET modela koji simulira energetski sustav definirane regije. Odabrano simulirano područje obuhvaća zemlje Zapadnog Balkana, Srbija, Bosna i Hercegovina, Sjeverna Makedonija, Crna Gora, Albanija, Kosovo, te tri susjedne države, Hrvatska, Slovenija i Grčka. U sklopu zadatka bilo je potrebno pokazati poveznicu između hidrologije i energetskog sustava promatranog područja. Cjelokupni model sastoji se od tri povezana modela. LISFLOOD model je hidrološki model koji se koristi za simuliranje hidrologije i/ili poplava na određenom području, a u sklopu ovog rada koristi se u obliku ulaznih podataka vezani na protoke rijeka i padalinama na definiranim područjima. Protoci rijeka i padaline potrebni su kao ulazni podaci za proizvodnju hidroelektrana u Dispa-SET modelu. Dispa-SET model može se podijeliti na dva zasebna modela. Prvi model je Dispa-SET Medium-Term Hydrothermal Coordination (Dispa-SET MTHC) model koji se na kratkoročnoj razini, u ovome radu na razini jedne godine uz vremenski korak od jednog dana, koristi za izračun proizvodnje protočnih hidroelektrana i razine vode hidroelektrana koje koriste akumulacije. U Dispa-SET MTHC modelu detaljno se definiraju tehnički podaci za pojedinu hidroelektranu dok su ostale proizvodne jedinice definirane uz osnovne tehničke značajke. Rezultati Dispa-SET MTHC modela i podaci dobiveni iz LISFLOOD modela koriste se kao ulazni podaci za Dispa-SET Unit Commitment and Dispatch (Dispa-SET UCD) model u kojem se detaljno definiraju tehnički podaci za pojedinu elektranu vezano na njenu fleksibilnosti i cjelokupnu proizvodnju u definiranom energetskom sektoru. Rezultati Dipsa-SET UCD modela daju detaljan prikaz rada pojedinog postrojenja i njihove isplativosti kao i ekonomske pokazatelje cjelokupne regije. U sklopu rada prikazan je utjecaj različitih hidroloških godina na energetski sustav promatranog područja koji je definiran u sklopu pojma poveznice hidrologije i proizvodnje energije. (eng. water-power nexus, water-energy nexus)This study describes the implementation of three different models for detailed analysis of impacts on the regional power system for different hydrological years. The region includes countries Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Albania and Greece. Combining the hydrological LISFLOOD model with Dispa-SET models for simulation of the regional power system, three scenarios for dry, average and wet year were studied to investigate the regional power system output for different hydrological conditions. The first part of the study included gathering data needed for detailed representation of regional power system participants and analysis of data from the LISFLOOD model provided by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC). Data on regional power systems were obtained from available databases and documentation published by regional TSO’s. Details on region hydrology and power system of each country is described in the first two sections. Three mentioned models are in more detail described in Section 3. The LISFLOOD model is included in the study in the form of its results that are needed as input data for Dispa-SET models. Water inflows are crucial for a successful run of Dispa-SET models that can be divided into Dispa-SET Medium-Term Hydrothermal Coordination model (Dispa-SET MTHC) and Dispa-SET Unit Commitment and Dispatch model (Dispa-SET UCD). Dispa-SET MTHC model is used to in detail represent hydropower generation of each unit included in the study. Results in the form of hydropower generation for run-of-river units and reservoir levels of hydropower units with accumulations are used as input data for Dispa-SET UCD model. Besides power generation, results from UCD model include economical, commitment and power dispatch values for each unit and aggregated by country or region. The model was validated based on the hydropower generation for the reference year (2015). Results on three different hydrological years, 2007, 2015 and 2010 used as dry, average and wet year, respectively, are shown in Section 6. Region hydropower generation was compared to available statistical data from ENTSO-E and International Energy Agency. The study shows model results on power system operation for different hydrological conditions