Application of Bayesian Networks to Estimate River Discharges in Ecuador

Abstract

Ecuadorian cities that are located near banks of rivers or near the sea and that have low elevation respect to sea level are more exposed to floods (MIDUVI, 2015). This research will focus on the study of the Guayas river basin, which encloses the city of Guayaquil, the most populated city of the country with 2’578.201 inhabitants where 993.123 inhabitants live in flood-prone areas (INEC, 2010) that can be translated as the 46.2% of the population of the city. This research aims to apply the Bayesian Network model proposed by Paprotny & Morales-Nápoles (2017) in the Guayas river basin, and to observe how this model performs in catchments like the ones in Ecuador by comparing it to the previous application in Europe. Other applications of the model (with their corresponding adjustments) were performed in the US and in Colombia, therefore this study can be used as a first step in order to develop a model for Ecuador