From the resampling studies we have no evidence that the absence of randomisation directly influences the effect size of policy interventions in a systematic way. At the level of individual studies, non-randomised trials may lead to different effect sizes, but this is unpredictable. Many of the examples reviewed and the new analyses in the current study reveal that randomisation is indeed associated with changes in effect sizes of policy interventions in field trials. Despite extensive analysis, we have identified no consistent explanations for these differences. Researchers mounting new evaluations need to avoid, wherever possible, allocation bias. New policy evaluations should adopt randomised designs wherever possible
To submit an update or takedown request for this paper, please submit an Update/Correction/Removal Request.